Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

[tron777]

African wave is now down to 10%. So much for that!

[tron777]

This is probably a waste of time posting, but a 10% chance at development from a tropical wave in the N Gulf.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[tpweather]

This is probably a waste of time posting, but a 10% chance at development from a tropical wave in the N Gulf.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Les I thought the chances next week would be better in the GOM. Was not sure a Hurricane would form but with the pattern I thought the western GOM was a prime area for development. What a tropical season and it seems like the winter season around here when we are waiting and waiting and waiting.

[tron777]

This is probably a waste of time posting, but a 10% chance at development from a tropical wave in the N Gulf.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Les I thought the chances next week would be better in the GOM. Was not sure a Hurricane would form but with the pattern I thought the western GOM was a prime area for development. What a tropical season and it seems like the winter season around here when we are waiting and waiting and waiting.

It stinks doesn't it? We seem to do a lot of waiting around here don't we?

[Bgoney]

This is great news for the south Texas coast, heavy rains for them with little in the way of winds and surf.

[tron777]

The last time we went saw little activity in the Atlantic Basin thru August was 2013. Hmmm....

[Bgoney]

LaNina weekly reading features another cool down, 3.4 region down to -1.1. Recent Inactive phase of MJO has helped stifle Atlantic tropical activity so far In August, along with the SAL.

[tron777]

A 20% chance in the next 5 days that we see something develop in the S Gulf?


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[cloudy72]

Look out folks, mother nature is about to flip the switch on Atlantic tropical season.....at least if the Euro ENS is correct!

Screenshot 2022-08-17 084539.png

[tpweather]

Look out folks, mother nature is about to flip the switch on Atlantic tropical season.....at least if the Euro ENS is correct!


Screenshot 2022-08-17 084539.png

Hey Mike it does look to become busier but that is not very hard at the moment. The Bermuda High this season has been centered further east than normal and that is why you saw parts of Europe have a few heat episodes. For us locally the heat in June was mainly from the heat over the southwest that pushed in here. With the Bermuda High strong and large these tropical systems must worked extra hard to get going. Sure we will have a few systems develop but if anyone is still pushing for an above normal season I believe that is probably not going to be correct. The monsoon season in the southwest USA and India have been very strong this season though very little movement. I am sure this is also connected to the low amount of storms not only in the Atlantic but also the Pacific.

[tron777]

Look out folks, mother nature is about to flip the switch on Atlantic tropical season.....at least if the Euro ENS is correct!


Screenshot 2022-08-17 084539.png

Oh wow! That sure is crazy looking! We've got a 30% chance of development in the next 5 days on that possible Gulf of Mexico disturbance. Not sure how many of these African waves can develop with all of the dust out there so a system developing closer to home in the Gulf certainly is making more sense at this time.

[tpweather]

Look out folks, mother nature is about to flip the switch on Atlantic tropical season.....at least if the Euro ENS is correct!


Screenshot 2022-08-17 084539.png

Oh wow! That sure is crazy looking! We've got a 30% chance of development in the next 5 days on that possible Gulf of Mexico disturbance. Not sure how many of these African waves can develop with all of the dust out there so a system developing closer to home in the Gulf certainly is making more sense at this time.

Les I mentioned this early last week that I thought we may see some development in the gom but models are sometimes slow to pick up on the ones forming near the gulf coast.

[tron777]

Look out folks, mother nature is about to flip the switch on Atlantic tropical season.....at least if the Euro ENS is correct!


Screenshot 2022-08-17 084539.png

Oh wow! That sure is crazy looking! We've got a 30% chance of development in the next 5 days on that possible Gulf of Mexico disturbance. Not sure how many of these African waves can develop with all of the dust out there so a system developing closer to home in the Gulf certainly is making more sense at this time.

Les I mentioned this early last week that I thought we may see some development in the gom but models are sometimes slow to pick up on the ones forming near the gulf coast.

Great call Tim!

[tron777]

A 20% chance in the next 48 hours along with a 30% chance in the next 5 days is the current call from the NHC on this potential Gulf wave. I don't think we have much to worry about until we get towards the end of next week. That is when the GFS and now the foreign models too, continue to show that Gulf storm impacting the CONUS.

[tron777]

We got a 40% chance now...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[tron777]

The Gulf Wave is now PTC4.

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022
700 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE
DISTURBANCE...
...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 96.0W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan northward to the
Mouth of the Rio Grande
* The Lower Texas coast from Port Mansfield southward to the Mouth
of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
23.2 North, longitude 96.0 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northwestward to
north-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected
through Sunday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected
to reach the coast of northeastern Mexico late this afternoon and
then move across the Rio Grande Valley tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance could still strengthen slightly and become a
tropical storm later today before reaching the coast of northeastern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).

[Bgoney]

Shear is increasing , pretty much going as predicted, Texas coast should only see minor wind gusts (35-45), and the good news , plentiful rains across the state in the days to come

[tron777]

We now have a new wave off the African Coast that has a 20% chance in the next 5 days.,

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[tpweather]

Good Morning and starting to see some signs of life with the tropics but nothing major in terms of storms. The mjo which we talk about should play a big part on how the next 1-2 months play out concerning tropical activity. Phases 1-3 are better phases for getting tropical activity to become more active. At the moment we are coming out of phases 4-6 and we are in the neutral area but it looks to be heading towards phase 1. This is very common though I still believe the forecast of Hurricanes is to high. Going to be an uptick and I am sure in a few weeks the Atlantic will look much different but still we only have so much time to really boost those totals as we head into October those storms tend to be fewer and far between.

[tron777]

GFS continues to show a gulf system, another one off the SE Coast, or a combination of the two for Labor Day.

[tron777]

Two tropical waves to talk about. Both have 20% chances in the next 5 days. Once is approaching the Windward and Leeward Islands and the other will be coming off of the African Coast. Don't hold your breath lol

[Bgoney]

Gradually easing my way into making time for more model watching. One thing that has come back to me the last few runs , is how spastic the GFS is in the tropical department

[tron777]

Gradually easing my way into making time for more model watching. One thing that has come back to me the last few runs , is how spastic the GFS is in the tropical department

6Z GFS run has a cane coming into SW LA then the leftovers blast us on 9/7. Other runs have shown Mobile, AL, FL and off the SE Coast. The Euro showing the lack of development so far has actually been more correct. Global models aren't very good for tropical development usually, but the Euro hasn't been bad so far this season since it has yet to really develop any wave.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and we are in the last 7 days of August and I believe not a named storm this month.

[tron777]

Good Morning and we are in the last 7 days of August and I believe not a named storm this month.

That is correct Tim. We've only had a total of 3 named storms all season long. ACE is still only at 2.8 Check it out as compared to normal ACE. WOW!

WheresTheACE.png