February 2025 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

It is trying to phase in that PV lobe to really slow this down and make the pivot point on us as the trough goes negative tilt. Wow...

When do we get big snow storms around here and normally its with an upper system. If the surface low is not strong to our south the upper system has the lift to bring that moisture northward. Again just one run of the gfs but much better looking imo

[tron777]

0.47" QPF, very much improved and matches the 6Z Euro very well.

CVG

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WED 06Z 19-FEB  -8.1    -8.5    1032      86      96    0.01     555     530    
WED 12Z 19-FEB  -9.1    -8.4    1030      92      96    0.10     553     530    
WED 18Z 19-FEB  -6.3    -8.5    1026      86      97    0.13     550     529    
THU 00Z 20-FEB  -7.7   -11.0    1025      94      96    0.09     544     525    
THU 06Z 20-FEB  -9.9   -13.6    1025      93      87    0.04     539     520    
THU 12Z 20-FEB  -9.6   -15.9    1028      93      95    0.01     537     515    

Can we manage a 1/2" QPF with temps in the teens and 20s? Wow... wouldn't that be something!

[tpweather]

The gfs not as friendly to the east coast. The 50/50 low and how long is it in place. The nao goes negative early this week but does it stay that way or head back towards neutral or positive. For us here normally a slightly negative to neutral is good but for the east coast the more negative it goes is better for them in terms of a big snowstorm.

[tpweather]

0.47" QPF, very much improved and matches the 6Z Euro very well.

CVG

Code: Select all

WED 06Z 19-FEB  -8.1    -8.5    1032      86      96    0.01     555     530    
WED 12Z 19-FEB  -9.1    -8.4    1030      92      96    0.10     553     530    
WED 18Z 19-FEB  -6.3    -8.5    1026      86      97    0.13     550     529    
THU 00Z 20-FEB  -7.7   -11.0    1025      94      96    0.09     544     525    
THU 06Z 20-FEB  -9.9   -13.6    1025      93      87    0.04     539     520    
THU 12Z 20-FEB  -9.6   -15.9    1028      93      95    0.01     537     515    

Can we manage a 1/2" QPF with temps in the teens and 20s? Wow... wouldn't that be something!

That would be nice an a good 6-8 inch snow and I will take that and call it a day

[tron777]

Thread or wait for foreign guidance first? You guys decide. The timing looks to be a Tues night into Thurs morning type of event.

We are inside of 5 days now. Counting today, we're at Day 4 until start time.

[tron777]

0.47" QPF, very much improved and matches the 6Z Euro very well.

CVG

Code: Select all

WED 06Z 19-FEB  -8.1    -8.5    1032      86      96    0.01     555     530    
WED 12Z 19-FEB  -9.1    -8.4    1030      92      96    0.10     553     530    
WED 18Z 19-FEB  -6.3    -8.5    1026      86      97    0.13     550     529    
THU 00Z 20-FEB  -7.7   -11.0    1025      94      96    0.09     544     525    
THU 06Z 20-FEB  -9.9   -13.6    1025      93      87    0.04     539     520    
THU 12Z 20-FEB  -9.6   -15.9    1028      93      95    0.01     537     515    

Can we manage a 1/2" QPF with temps in the teens and 20s? Wow... wouldn't that be something!

That would be nice an a good 6-8 inch snow and I will take that and call it a day

Hell yeah!

[tron777]

For Sunday, 12Z GEFS is NW of the OP GFS with regards to the deformation band., Similar numbers, up to 4" + possible. I think it is overdone. You have to think half of that would melt. But 2" for sure is doable IMO.

[tpweather]

Some place in southwest Ky over 3 inches and still raining hard. Where exactly does the next part of the storm set up and its going to be a southwest to northeast placement of heavy rain. Parts of eastern Ky may get lucky in the sense is only has a few hours of the heavy rain later but for us still on track to have heavy rain this evening into the early morning hours.

[tron777]

Well Tim... the PV drops in and says hello by the end of next week behind that snow storm. What a winter if this turns out to be modeled as such., We'd go below zero at night should clear skies, light winds, and a nice snow pack occur. Record lows possible for Feb should this type of scenario unfold.

[tron777]

The CPC analogs couldn't be better for next week. 1994 weighted 3 X's 1977 twice and even a few 2004's thrown in for good measure.

[tpweather]

For Sunday, 12Z GEFS is NW of the OP GFS with regards to the deformation band., Similar numbers, up to 4" + possible. I think it is overdone. You have to think half of that would melt. But 2" for sure is doable IMO.

Les and how quickly does the temp drop because this could be a small layer of ice underneath if the cold comes in faster. Hopefully the winds can pick up enough and a little break between the rain and snow but its close and that is no doubt a nowcast in the morning. I can see 2 inches just because of the amount of moisture this system has to work with

I agree about the PV and you can see the AO which is really negative take a big turn towards neutral or positive late next week but if we get another week of winter weather I am happy with how this winter has turned out.

[tron777]

MJO modeling now wants to stall it in the colder phases 8 and 1 for a while. Cold and stormy thru mid March if that scenario unfolds. Right now it is slowing down in Phase 8. TONS of good weather news today for us snow weenies.

[tpweather]

Les my guess is with a big pattern change late next week or weekend another big storm will likely form in the GOM. This is normal and by then the GOM will have recovered plus its late Feb by then and the GOM is no doubt open for business.

[tron777]

For Sunday, 12Z GEFS is NW of the OP GFS with regards to the deformation band., Similar numbers, up to 4" + possible. I think it is overdone. You have to think half of that would melt. But 2" for sure is doable IMO.

Les and how quickly does the temp drop because this could be a small layer of ice underneath if the cold comes in faster. Hopefully the winds can pick up enough and a little break between the rain and snow but its close and that is no doubt a nowcast in the morning. I can see 2 inches just because of the amount of moisture this system has to work with

I agree about the PV and you can see the AO which is really negative take a big turn towards neutral or positive late next week but if we get another week of winter weather I am happy with how this winter has turned out.

The AO recovers but doesn't go insanely positive. If anything more neutral to perhaps even slightly negative if some guidance is right.

[tron777]

The silly Canadian is nice for deform snow on Sunday, agrees with GFS but now it has lost the phased idea and is more disjointed again. Means more to me to have the Euro on board. It still has the best verifications cores in the 5-7 day period. Inside of 84 hours, GFS gets better. So by tomorrow the GFS is hopefully going to be strong and more useful in its solutions.

[vbowler]

Les, For Tomorrow morning and afternoon are we looking the same 1-2" out here between Hillsboro and Peebles?

[tron777]

Les, For Tomorrow morning and afternoon are we looking the same 1-2" out here between Hillsboro and Peebles?

If something like the GFS pans out, then yes. It would be for most along the I-71 corridor. The models are going to be changing the placement of that band. Outside of that band, then up to an inch can occur.

[tron777]

12Z GEFS P-type members for next week... We are dropping more of the suppressed members.

GEFS Members.png

[tpweather]

Alex I will take member number 9 for a thousand

[tpweather]

The CMC is usually colder and with the PV over here its probably even colder than normal. Not saying it can't be correct and with a strong PV anything is possible but again mid-Feb instead of mid-Jan makes somewhat a difference plus its been warm in the southeast lately and it will put up somewhat of a fight as well.

[tpweather]

Heading out soon so will be back later this afternoon or evening

[tron777]

12Z UKIE has an inch for most on Sunday with pockets of isolated 2" amounts. I think that is fair.

[tron777]

UKIE was a very nice run! Slower moving, well phased and amp'ed up. Note.. some of this is from Sunday too.

UKIE Snow.png

[tron777]

Euro has initialized...

[tron777]

UKIE closes the upper low over us.... Wow!

500hv.conus.png