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Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:32 pm
by tron777
mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:27 pm
If the GFS caves south I think the writing is on the wall. Aren't the models being sampled with these previous runs?
I expect the GFS to tick south a little more to correct itself further and to be in better alignment with the CMC and Euro solutions. ideally, the GFS should tick south and Euro tick back to the north if my thought process is correct. The low is not quite on shore yet. 0Z tonight and 12Z runs tomorrow should get us to a point where we can resolve some of the uncertainties. Nonetheless, uncertainty could still prevail until we see how the precip looks to our West by Sunday morning as I mentioned yesterday.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:34 pm
by tron777
Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:25 pm
Pretty tight ensemble cluster . Still some north possibilities though on there
IMG_2951.jpeg
If we can manage a KY / TN border track and if the low can make it into WV before falling apart, we're golden. If only Mother Nature could hear me.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:34 pm
by mainevilleweather
Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:30 pm
Hard data sampling will be partial on tonight 0z run and fully on tomorrow 12z
Thanks
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:34 pm
by Bgoney
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:34 pm
Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:25 pm
Pretty tight ensemble cluster . Still some north possibilities though on there
IMG_2951.jpeg
If we can manage a KY / TN border track and if the low can make it into WV before falling apart, we're golden. If only Mother Nature could hear me.
Text her
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:37 pm
by tron777
Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:34 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:34 pm
Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:25 pm
Pretty tight ensemble cluster . Still some north possibilities though on there
IMG_2951.jpeg
If we can manage a KY / TN border track and if the low can make it into WV before falling apart, we're golden. If only Mother Nature could hear me.
Text her
I will try and give her a call on my way home.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:38 pm
by tpweather
Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:34 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:34 pm
Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:25 pm
Pretty tight ensemble cluster . Still some north possibilities though on there
IMG_2951.jpeg
If we can manage a KY / TN border track and if the low can make it into WV before falling apart, we're golden. If only Mother Nature could hear me.
Text her
I did text her and guess what she blocked me
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:39 pm
by snowbo
This is just a ploy to ensure we reach the over of 61 pages!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:42 pm
by tron777
snowbo wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:39 pm
This is just a ploy to ensure we reach the over of 61 pages!
Many years ago, back on the old version of the forum, we used to get over 100 pages on bigger events.
EDIT: Back then, if I recall, it was like 15-20 posts per page. The setting now is for 25 posts per page so there's that.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:44 pm
by CINCINNATI01
Haha this is awesome to far north to far south the anticipation is real
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:48 pm
by Bgoney
Just noticed an expansion for t-storms not to far to the south
IMG_2952.gif
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:50 pm
by mainevilleweather
I know I'm grasping at straws but I read up on the ICON weather model. Seems to do well in medium to short range forecasts. What have you guys noticed from this model over the years?
ICON (Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic)
Type: Global model developed by the German Weather Service (DWD).
Resolution: Approximately 13 km for the operational version, with higher resolution options available.
Strengths:
Particularly strong in resolving convective processes and precipitation.
Often performs well in medium-range forecasts (up to 5 days).
Provides high-resolution data for specific regions.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:50 pm
by tron777
CINCINNATI01 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:44 pm
Haha this is awesome to far north to far south the anticipation is real
That's how we roll in the Ohio Valley!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:52 pm
by tron777
mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:50 pm
I know I'm grasping at straws but I read up on the ICON weather model. Seems to do well in medium to short range forecasts. What have you guys noticed from this model over the years?
ICON (Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic)
Type: Global model developed by the German Weather Service (DWD).
Resolution: Approximately 13 km for the operational version, with higher resolution options available.
Strengths:
Particularly strong in resolving convective processes and precipitation.
Often performs well in medium-range forecasts (up to 5 days).
Provides high-resolution data for specific regions.
It's not a great model but it's not awful either. It's a model lol 500 MB verification scores in the 5-7 day forecast period is still owned by the Euro. GFS is awful. We are in the short term model mode now 2 days out so a different matrix would need to be used for that. I am not sure on short term verification scores. I have not looked much into that since by now, we start using the short term / mesoscale / hi-res models more the closer you get to an event's start time.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:55 pm
by tron777
Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:48 pm
Just noticed an expansion for t-storms not to far to the south
IMG_2952.gif
I know we have mentioned it before. Definitely curious to see if the moisture transport from the Gulf is impacted or not. If we see a lot of super cells develop that is not good for QPF in the OV. If it's more of a line or lines of storms, then it isn't quite so bad.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:55 pm
by mainevilleweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:52 pm
mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:50 pm
I know I'm grasping at straws but I read up on the ICON weather model. Seems to do well in medium to short range forecasts. What have you guys noticed from this model over the years?
ICON (Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic)
Type: Global model developed by the German Weather Service (DWD).
Resolution: Approximately 13 km for the operational version, with higher resolution options available.
Strengths:
Particularly strong in resolving convective processes and precipitation.
Often performs well in medium-range forecasts (up to 5 days).
Provides high-resolution data for specific regions.
It's not a great model but it's not awful either. It's a model lol 500 MB verification scores in the 5-7 day forecast period is still owned by the Euro. GFS is awful. We are in the short term model mode now 2 days out so a different matrix would need to be used for that. I am not sure on short term verification scores. I have not looked much into that since by now, we start using the short term / mesoscale / hi-res models more the closer you get to an event's start time.
Has the NAM been any good recently 48 hours out?
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 2:02 pm
by tron777
mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:55 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:52 pm
mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:50 pm
I know I'm grasping at straws but I read up on the ICON weather model. Seems to do well in medium to short range forecasts. What have you guys noticed from this model over the years?
ICON (Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic)
Type: Global model developed by the German Weather Service (DWD).
Resolution: Approximately 13 km for the operational version, with higher resolution options available.
Strengths:
Particularly strong in resolving convective processes and precipitation.
Often performs well in medium-range forecasts (up to 5 days).
Provides high-resolution data for specific regions.
It's not a great model but it's not awful either. It's a model lol 500 MB verification scores in the 5-7 day forecast period is still owned by the Euro. GFS is awful. We are in the short term model mode now 2 days out so a different matrix would need to be used for that. I am not sure on short term verification scores. I have not looked much into that since by now, we start using the short term / mesoscale / hi-res models more the closer you get to an event's start time.
Has the NAM been any good recently 48 hours out?
Every once and a while the NAM can score. The last sleet fest we had, recall that the NAM sniffed it out first about 48 hours out and other models followed suit. Generally outside of 60 hours it should never be used but we're in the 48 hour mark now so it's worth looking at. NAM is more north then the CMC and Euro but not quite as far north as the GFS. We'll see what the 18Z run says soon. All models have their time and place.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 2:05 pm
by tron777
I think that the GFS has been too far north the entire time! Remember a few days ago when it showed a cutter?
Now the Euro has had it's failures too. It has not been The King that it used to be. I tell ya one thing, the Canadian has been doing better. With these NW flow and blocking patterns, the model does a decent job. It has scored once or twice already this season actually. So with the Canadian in between the GFS and Euro models, if this thought process is right, we would see the GFS tick south and the Euro tick back north on the next model cycle.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 2:06 pm
by CINCINNATI01
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 2:09 pm
by tron777
I'm glad I don't have to do this for a living where my calls could impact peoples lives! Talk about stress!
A lot of people over the years have told me, "you missed your calling. blah blah blah..." I used to agree with that but I don't anymore. The way people treat Mets on Social Media is terrible. Just terrible. I would get fired most likely because I would tell a viewer to F--- off!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 2:10 pm
by mainevilleweather
Weathermen are only as good as their data. And the data sucks haha.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 2:12 pm
by tron777
mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 2:10 pm
Weathermen are only as good as their data. And the data sucks haha.
To be honest though, a good Met. has to know when to toss sucky data and when it is right. If we could all do that, then we wouldn't have a need for meteorologists!
It's a tough gig!!!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 2:31 pm
by tron777
Is the 15Z SREF out yet? Could someone check the plumes and report in. Thanks!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 2:32 pm
by Phr0z3n
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 2:31 pm
Is the 15Z SREF out yet? Could someone check the plumes and report in. Thanks!
I was just about to post. Stayed pretty much the same.
IMG_1239.png
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 2:33 pm
by MJSun
Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:34 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:34 pm
Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:25 pm
Pretty tight ensemble cluster . Still some north possibilities though on there
IMG_2951.jpeg
If we can manage a KY / TN border track and if the low can make it into WV before falling apart, we're golden. If only Mother Nature could hear me.
Text her
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 2:33 pm
by Ddmeyer004
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:23 pm
mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:21 pm
I didn't like seeing the CMC go south. Has been holding steady until the Euro started south. I'm sure the GFS is wrong, but what do I know?
If you take a model blend, we are still looking pretty good IMO. UKMET is too far south and the GFS is too far north. I think the Canadian models (CMC and RGEM) are in the middle which is good. The area of concern right now for getting the shaft in my mind is our I-70 Crew. This is just my opinion. I could be wrong as well.
Les watching all the modeling but really going with history and gut feeling….im not buying the 70 north shift and getting shafted….i think up here we are going to score big. All area Mets near and around Lima area are calling for 5-8 inches already…..call me naive but my gut tells me otherwise
