Absolute Vorticity

snowbo wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2025 7:04 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2025 2:55 pm

snowbo wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2025 11:54 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2025 11:43 am Back to our current clipper... is anyone seeing any flakes flying in our northern counties?

Saw some earlier but they were just the outliers and not the main event.

Hi Bo, how do you like Tipp City? My folks and I have a friend from here in our Brethren Ret Community 'hood who has a son and his family who also reside in Tipp City. We get our van serviced at Tipp City Honda.

Thanks for remembering Eric. We moved on Friday January 10 and the movers left just as the "Refresher" storm was starting. I will say, it's been a rough go and the snow didn't help since I had three driveways to clean. Lots of snow, dirt and grime entered both houses even though the movers were careful. We loved our home and it was SUPER emotional to leave. We left a house on 3 acres with probably 150 trees and TONS of storage to move into a new neighborhood. Trees and gravity don't get along as there's always something falling out of them. At 71, the work was becoming more like work and not fun anymore. In the neighborhood, we have more "eyes" on us as we age should we possibly need help with things. And the storage, OMG, after 25 years in the same house we accumulated a lot of stuff. The new house, while beautiful, doesn't have nearly the storage. We have been donating fools the last 6 weeks. So, we love Tipp and can't wait to get back into our routine but the transition has been difficult at best. Thanks again for asking!

You're quite welcome Bo! My folks and I have a catalpa-style house and downsizing for us has been quite an adjustment, too, after having resided in a standard sized house on the other side of Greenville for 10 years. My folks are in their 80s and we've made some good friends here in our Chestnut Village 'hood. One of our friends, we share a cousin between us on Dad's side of the family and its truly a "small world" having met him and fellowshiping with him in like playing Bocce ball e.g. at the court we have in our 'hood. We still have two storage bins here in G'ville full of stuff from over the years and have given items away to Goodwill e.g. etc. I'm a volunteer mail person taking care of two zones in my 'hood e.g. when an "all call" comes in from a BRC office employee. Our BRC maintenance crew does a wonderful job, too, in various areas including snow plowing, shoveling of short walkways to and from front doors of neighborhood houses and putting down melt. Flory's Landscaping in G'ville does our mowing, shrub trimming, mulching etc.

Anyway back to the elements.

Currently 3 above here in my area BRRRR shy of just 1 degree of 4 above via the ILN forecast!

CVG reached 30 and both DAY / CMH 22 on Tues.

Good morning all! Glad to see a few of you report in that the advisory last evening was justified in some areas. 4 at CVG this morning, 2 here. Our next shot for snow showers is tomorrow morning, esp early. Best chance for up to 1" is NE of Cincinnati. Then we warm up and get wet Fri night into Sat. Then we end as some flakes and turn very cold for MLK Day and Tues of next week. No big storms in our future. GFS is still way south as is the Euro., CMC is close but no cigar.

ILN keeps lowering temps for Sun - Tues of next week. Low 20s Sunday, 10 for MLK Day and 10 to 15 on Tues. Lows either side of zero.

Thankfully EU/Gfs are lessening the chances for a major snowstorm in western North Carolina for early next week

6Z GFS is trying to be like the Canadian next week.

Temp right now is -5 at 6:53 a.m

Snow43130 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 15, 2025 6:54 am Temp right now is -5 at 6:53 a.m

Oh wow! You're near Lancaster, right?

Official overnight lows:

CVG: 1
HAO: -4
ILN: -5
MGY: 2
DAY: -1
CMH: 4
LHQ: -7 (Lancaster, Ohio)
AOH: 3 (Lima, Ohio)

Good Morning and to me 1 degree feels like when its 33 and rain. Les has us covered with the forecast. Only changes I see is the cold will get in here a tad faster on Saturday so the changeover to snow will be sooner and yes this could lead to a minor accumulation. Then on Sunday a second surge of cold air and again will watch the front as it only takes a small piece of energy to produce some snow showers and with temps cold we know ratios will be high. Next week and the models are doing a couple things and have all along and that is to produce a wide area of cold weather over a good part of the country so getting this cold to leave is going to take some time. Second is the GOM will still remain open even with the cold air so then we look to see when and where a storm or maybe two come into play next week. Probably the one item that has changed or really is timing and that is a storm coming into play around the MLK holiday. This looks to be pushed back say 24-36 hours. Is next week a great pattern for snow and the answer is no and is it a poor pattern for snow and the answer is no once again. Sometime next week snow will be introduced into the forecast but hopefully by the weekend the models will get together and be on the same page in terms of when and where a storm or two may track.

The models are either correct with the suppressed look for next week, or the cold is being overdone. If the cold is being overdone then the 6Z GFS and 0Z CMC type solutions would be favored. It's just a bit too early in my opinion. I agree Tim with some light rain ending as flakes Sat. Perhaps a few flakes on Sunday with the arctic air pouring in. Then as the trough tries to lift out do we get that storm??? We shall see! I would like to see some ensemble support and I am concerned about suppression since we aren't seeing it yet.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 15, 2025 6:59 am

Snow43130 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 15, 2025 6:54 am Temp right now is -5 at 6:53 a.m

Oh wow! You're near Lancaster, right?

Yes Lancaster,Ohio we just hit -7 a few moments ago

Les a few items of many I have been looking at is the position of the high out of Canada next week. It does seem to be further west with the highest pressure and then the coldest air. The nao which this past weekend had a rather strong positive tilt has moved towards neutral with its forecast to this bodes well for some storminess to occur east of the Mississippi. Do we see the lovely 50/50 low park itself over southeast Canada early next week to block up the pattern and my guess is most likely yes. No doubt cold air is dense and can move like a big bear and overtake large areas. Snow pack and the Tn Valley should have theirs gone for the most part and even here we will lose quite a bit with the rain. Still in areas that normally see a bigger snow pack like the northern plains and upper mid-west should stay on the lighter side.

Still believe Friday becomes a somewhat foggy day as the milder air comes over the snow pack. Temps will rise slowly during the day and matter of fact the warmest period will be Friday evening as rain starts to overtake the area.

Its 1 above both here in G'ville and at DAY.

.9 for a low in Oxford, so close. A balmy 1.6 atm.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jan 15, 2025 8:00 am Les a few items of many I have been looking at is the position of the high out of Canada next week. It does seem to be further west with the highest pressure and then the coldest air. The nao which this past weekend had a rather strong positive tilt has moved towards neutral with its forecast to this bodes well for some storminess to occur east of the Mississippi. Do we see the lovely 50/50 low park itself over southeast Canada early next week to block up the pattern and my guess is most likely yes. No doubt cold air is dense and can move like a big bear and overtake large areas. Snow pack and the Tn Valley should have theirs gone for the most part and even here we will lose quite a bit with the rain. Still in areas that normally see a bigger snow pack like the northern plains and upper mid-west should stay on the lighter side.

Still believe Friday becomes a somewhat foggy day as the milder air comes over the snow pack. Temps will rise slowly during the day and matter of fact the warmest period will be Friday evening as rain starts to overtake the area.

I agree about the fog, if we have light winds. If we have a breeze then enough mixing should occur to prevent fog formation. I think your thoughts are spot on here Tim for Friday as long as the winds are light.

The last 7 days of the month are looking more favorable for the OV for a bigger wetter system than the days before that , for me it’s simply because models are bringing the SE ridge into a better spot and with decent strength. Until then each cold advance has no resistance to overwhelm

Good Morning and while we wait for the afternoon info to arrive and though many items to look at but I am focused on the High coming down out of Canada. This is they key to the forecast early next week. If this high comes east of the rockies then cold air should have a good shot of getting down near the coast and yes we would need to wait until late next week to have a better shot of snow and ice. If this High can have part of that go west of the Rockies then the cold will still be strong but it allows for the storm earlier in the week to be further north and west. Have been hints both ways though mostly east of the rockies but will watch this because if that high which will be strong can somehow be further west with its decent then that really changes the jet stream further east. Do I know which way this will end up and no and sometimes when you have two solutions the middle of those two tend to play out. Again this may not be known until later this week as the weather gets in motion.

12Z GFS is cold and dry with noting going on. Even the SE US gets nothing. 12Z CMC tries to give some flakes to our SE counties on Sunday, Then for next week, Wed / Thurs time frame, the Canadian is still trying to cook something up even though on this run it's a swing and a miss. Still time to see how that one trends.

12Z GFS is a swing and a miss a couple of days later after the Canadian.

12z didn’t change for Saturday rains , around a quarter inch give or take for the region. A few flakes still possible as the cold moves in and the moisture leaves.

18Z GFS is trying to dangle a carrot for next Thurs the 23rd with a partial phase / overrunning type of set up.

GEFs are still way south