Absolute Vorticity

here is a quick question/opinion for you all. i am looking to go to Hawaii for a month. do you think i should leave for Dec or Jan . which month do you feel will be worse as far as cold and snow? i would like to be home during the worst of winter and take off while its boring . thanks.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2024 1:59 am here is a quick question/opinion for you all. i am looking to go to Hawaii for a month. do you think i should leave for Dec or Jan . which month do you feel will be worse as far as cold and snow? i would like to be home during the worst of winter and take off while its boring . thanks.

That's a tough call Charles! Winters are so fickle anymore in the East that if you leave, no matter when, you'll get a big Nor Easter. If you stay, it'll be warm and mild. All kidding aside... I think early December holds promise, then a warm up mid December. We should cool down again in time for the Holidays if the MJO progression works out correctly. January is a crap shoot this far out. I honestly have no idea.

Good morning all! 0.42" so far as of 7am at CVG on this rainy morning. Rain will taper off as the day wears on and we may even see a touch of sun this afternoon sending temps one last time into the upper 60s. A few more showers tomorrow with the front as temps drop and the winds pick up. In terms of snow chances I am coming around to what folks like Doug have been saying on our forum. I think we'll see some flakes early Thurs, but the best chance for all areas to me looks to be Thurs afternoon thru Fri morning time frame. For CVG, it is looking more like a nighttime event which is more favorable this time of year to get a small accum on the grassy areas, roof tops . car topper, etc. We may indeed get enough for the snow fall contest. We shall see how it goes, but a covering is indeed looking more likely now esp Thurs night.

After that system, then we get a few days in the 30s and 40s for highs, and warm back up towards 60 early next week as our next shot of rain moves in. Later this month around Thanksgiving and into early December, still looks promising for active weather. Maybe even wintry if the baroclinic zone works out in our favor, I am still seeing that set up emerge on the longer term guidance.

Models did a fantastic job 2 weeks out with the cooler air mass invasion around the 20th . Going forward as Les said, pattern remains active with cutters , meaning pre frontal warm-up’s and rain, before colder air moves back in, UNLESS we can get the -NAO to stick around going into late Nov/Dec and block low pressure systems from tracking west of us , you never know!

12Z NAM has QPF in the 0.15-0.20" range for Cincy land Thurs evening and overnight. If it's heavy enough, there is enough QPF there to get 1/2" to 1" perhaps in a lucky instance on grassy areas, car topper, etc. Still think mainly wet roads for the entire event.

Today's Alaskan Weather Story: The sun will set today in Barrow, Alaska (now Utqiaġvik) and won't rise again until January 22nd. That's 64 days with NO SUN!

0.20-0.25" QPF for the area on the 12Z GFS. Should be able to muster up a light accum if your areas gets under the heavy enough returns.

After today’s temps we’ll be at number 1 for the first 19 days of November for record warmth

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2024 1:59 am here is a quick question/opinion for you all. i am looking to go to Hawaii for a month. do you think i should leave for Dec or Jan . which month do you feel will be worse as far as cold and snow? i would like to be home during the worst of winter and take off while its boring . thanks.

Where are you going in Hawaii? And do you have room in your suitcase?

12Z Euro coming in a little drier 0.10-0.15" for QPF.

Preview for thanksgiving weekend temps from EU ensembles 5day average anomalies . Works out roughly with highs in the low to mid 40s and lows mid to upper 20s when averaged over the 5 days

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2024 1:59 am here is a quick question/opinion for you all. i am looking to go to Hawaii for a month. do you think i should leave for Dec or Jan . which month do you feel will be worse as far as cold and snow? i would like to be home during the worst of winter and take off while its boring . thanks.

Hi Charles,

Whenever you do go, have an awesome time, bro!

My folks went to Oahu for their anniversary in March 1991.

Also I'll always remember that episode of "The Brady Bunch" when the family went to Hawaii.

Both CVG / DAY reached 66 and CMH 62 on Tues.

Good morning all! Look out for patchy dense fog this morning. Then the wind and shower activity will pick up later this morning thanks to the arrival of a cold front. Temps will then fall by this afternoon. Any moisture will change to snow showers late tonight into tomorrow morning. I still think our best chance to see snow and to get it to stick will be tomorrow late afternoon and evening as well as overnight. Leftover flurries early Fri . rain showers then it's a wrap. Temps will fall into the 30s and stay there for tomorrow. 40s Fri and Sat. 50s Sun and near 60 on Monday with our next rain maker working in.

A front stalls close by Thanksgiving week. GFS has a little snow for Thanksgiving as the boundary is far enough south to allow some cold air to work in. Euro is dry but cool for Thanksgiving as it has a big system slamming into the West. CMC is also dry. Euro AI is also. We shall see!

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Indiana, northeast and northern
Kentucky, and central, south central, southwest, and west central
Ohio.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.

Didn’t see any fog on the drive through clermont county, then some fog and mist in Hamilton

It doesn't look bad out the office window in Mason. The fog by my hood was awful but it got better as I headed north.

This is going to be quite the slap in the face with these windchills

CVG is gusting to almost 30 mph now out of the NW. Band of rain on radar is moving into the region. Here comes the cold front! The best rain coverage looks to be well NW of Cincinnati.

Guidance is shifting the best snows into Indiana and CVG land. Cincinnati may do better than Dayton. Although we should all see a light accumulation.

12Z GFS has the rain / snow maker for Thanksgiving into Black Friday still showing up. I'd like to see some foreign model agreement before latching on to this.

Down to 42 now at CVG with some wind and light rain falling. 0.03" for today thus far for additional rainfall.

Snowflakes are mixing in with the rain in Sidney.