12Z GFS continues to look messy for Wed's severe set up and the active pattern we continue to talk about on here, is still showing up right on thru Memorial Day. Again, I don't think any one particular day is going to be a wash out but there will be periods of rain / storms from time to time. Pinpointing the timing and location of the greatest rainfall will be our job as forecasters as time goes on.
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon May 20, 2024 2:21 pm
by Bgoney
Seems to be fairly good agreement for our first chance of precip returning for Wednesday. The familiar weakening or dissipating line of showers early morning, then , a mix of clouds and sun the rest of the day before late evening or overnight storm chances
tpweather wrote: ↑Mon May 20, 2024 8:01 am
Good Morning and another warm day though the dew points not bad but starting Wednesday that changes and we are off to the races. Very busy period and models for sometime have been pointing towards a stormy period and though the last few days was a little more hesitant it looks like they are back on the bandwagon so buckle down for several days. No all day rains but when it rains it can be quite heavy.
Models tend to have troubles in forecasting rain totals in this set up and sometimes has a widespread total very high. Usually what happens you can lower the overall totals but some places will make up for that with very heavy rain. I would probably go with 1-3 inches through the holiday and most likely the lower number for most but some places will pass the 3 inch mark. Where is almost impossible to forecast this far out and really each day we will need to monitor the situation.
I am heading to Nashville on Thursday and will be there for a wedding on Friday and then back home for a local wedding on Saturday and then a Reds ballgame on Sunday.
"Two Weddings and a Ballgame" starring Tim and his wife e.g.
Hey Eric and to add more activity my wife and I just want 2 tickets to the game on Wednesday. Free food and drink included. This old man may need a nap or two before Wednesday
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon May 20, 2024 4:46 pm
by tron777
Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon May 20, 2024 2:21 pm
Seems to be fairly good agreement for our first chance of precip returning for Wednesday. The familiar weakening or dissipating line of showers early morning, then , a mix of clouds and sun the rest of the day before late evening or overnight storm chances
I think that is a very good call esp for our Eastern counties. As far as the big Holiday Weekend goes, Sat looks like the best chance for dry weather with Memorial Day being the highest chance at the moment anyway.
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon May 20, 2024 5:13 pm
by tron777
NOAA is having issues yet again (seems to be a daily thing anymore) but today's issue is I cannot get to ILN's climate report to check CVG's high as of 5pm. But, I can report mine and it is 87. That is what I had yesterday also.
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon May 20, 2024 5:25 pm
by MVWxObserver
CVG got to 86, DAY 87 and CMH 88 today.
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon May 20, 2024 6:17 pm
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon May 20, 2024 5:13 pm
NOAA is having issues yet again (seems to be a daily thing anymore) but today's issue is I cannot get to ILN's climate report to check CVG's high as of 5pm. But, I can report mine and it is 87. That is what I had yesterday also.
Big time problems and dew go from 56 one hour to 73 and then to 0. Heat index was over 90 when we had the high dew point. Government at its finest
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon May 20, 2024 6:38 pm
by tpweather
Starting to see summer advance though slow. Looking at the extended the models are starting to show a dry gulf coast and this is one sign of summer making its yearly trip. How quickly we advance summer northward is still not answered at this moment because we have some decent soil moisture in many parts from the Tn Valley to Canada. The next two weeks still look busy and not seeing any extended heat at this moment but again we will have days in the mid-upper 80's like today.
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon May 20, 2024 5:13 pm
NOAA is having issues yet again (seems to be a daily thing anymore) but today's issue is I cannot get to ILN's climate report to check CVG's high as of 5pm. But, I can report mine and it is 87. That is what I had yesterday also.
Big time problems and dew go from 56 one hour to 73 and then to 0. Heat index was over 90 when we had the high dew point. Government at its finest
Something is definitely up with CVG's sensor. I saw the dew at 30 the other day LOL
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue May 21, 2024 4:36 am
by tron777
Good morning all! Well folks, one last warm day with temps in the upper 80s and then we'll see how Wed shakes out in terms of severe wx chances. Still in a slight risk per the SPC with strong winds being the primary hazard. The worst of it will be to our SW where the Enhanced risk area is located down in the ARKLATex area. Then, a good chance for showers and storms Thurs and Fri. Keeping chances small on Sat but ramping back up a bit for Sunday and esp on Memorial Day itself. From Wed thru Monday some folks could pick up 1-2" of rainfall so localized flash flooding will be an issue once again. As usual, some will see over 2" and some less then an inch. Just the way it goes with t-storms as you all know.
Finally... as a side note.... if you live in KY today is our primary so please vote if you are a KY Resident and are able to do so! Thank you! I plan on voting after work today on my way home.
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue May 21, 2024 5:59 am
by tron777
If you are bored with our current wx (which will be getting busy shortly), you can track the severe wx outbreak to our NW that will be occurring later this afternoon and evening. A moderate risk is out for folks West of Chicagoland with an Enhanced risk for the Upper Midwest including Chicago. Iowa would be a good state to be chasing in if I were a storm chaser. Otherwise for us, we shall see what happens for tomorrow as previously discussed.
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue May 21, 2024 6:13 am
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2024 4:36 am
Good morning all! Well folks, one last warm day with temps in the upper 80s and then we'll see how Wed shakes out in terms of severe wx chances. Still in a slight risk per the SPC with strong winds being the primary hazard. The worst of it will be to our SW where the Enhanced risk area is located down in the ARKLATex area. Then, a good chance for showers and storms Thurs and Fri. Keeping chances small on Sat but ramping back up a bit for Sunday and esp on Memorial Day itself. From Wed thru Monday some folks could pick up 1-2" of rainfall so localized flash flooding will be an issue once again. As usual, some will see over 2" and some less then an inch. Just the way it goes with t-storms as you all know.
Finally... as a side note.... if you live in KY today is our primary so please vote if you are a KY Resident and are able to do so! Thank you! I plan on voting after work today on my way home.
Les I am a independent voter and have always been. The bad news I am unable to vote in the primary elections which is sad at best.
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2024 4:36 am
Good morning all! Well folks, one last warm day with temps in the upper 80s and then we'll see how Wed shakes out in terms of severe wx chances. Still in a slight risk per the SPC with strong winds being the primary hazard. The worst of it will be to our SW where the Enhanced risk area is located down in the ARKLATex area. Then, a good chance for showers and storms Thurs and Fri. Keeping chances small on Sat but ramping back up a bit for Sunday and esp on Memorial Day itself. From Wed thru Monday some folks could pick up 1-2" of rainfall so localized flash flooding will be an issue once again. As usual, some will see over 2" and some less then an inch. Just the way it goes with t-storms as you all know.
Finally... as a side note.... if you live in KY today is our primary so please vote if you are a KY Resident and are able to do so! Thank you! I plan on voting after work today on my way home.
Les I am a independent voter and have always been. The bad news I am unable to vote in the primary elections which is sad at best.
I'm sorry Tim and I agree Tim, that is sad. No matter what you believe in or who you vote for, I wish that you didn't have to register for one party or the other because the Independent voter IMO are the folks that can make it or break it for a particular candidate. Also, it shouldn't be anybody's business but your own. Anyway, I digress...
Weather wise today, let's see how close to 90 we can get. I was a tad too warm yesterday with CVG only topping out at 86 thanks to some clouds. We shall see what happens today. With the warm front passing thru late this afternoon / early evening, I suppose a brief shower or t-storm is possible but the forcing is very weak so 90-95% of the area should remain dry. Still going with the upper 80s. You know me, let it ride!
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue May 21, 2024 7:01 am
by tpweather
Good Morning Les and your forecast looks great. Though its muggy we are not above 70 with the dew point. Very busy over the next week but plenty of dry times ahead and like you mentioned some folks may get the short end of the stick. Even though rainfall has been good this spring it always helps to get more before summer kicks in. Love to see everyone get at least 1 inch over the next week and 2 inches would be perfect if spread out. The plains getting rocked again and we end up with the leftovers.
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue May 21, 2024 7:06 am
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2024 7:01 am
Good Morning Les and your forecast looks great. Though its muggy we are not above 70 with the dew point. Very busy over the next week but plenty of dry times ahead and like you mentioned some folks may get the short end of the stick. Even though rainfall has been good this spring it always helps to get more before summer kicks in. Love to see everyone get at least 1 inch over the next week and 2 inches would be perfect if spread out. The plains getting rocked again and we end up with the leftovers.
Par for the course! The leftovers will be here Wed morning and depending on what happens after that will determine if we get severe wx or not Wed afternoon and evening.
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2024 4:36 am
Good morning all! Well folks, one last warm day with temps in the upper 80s and then we'll see how Wed shakes out in terms of severe wx chances. Still in a slight risk per the SPC with strong winds being the primary hazard. The worst of it will be to our SW where the Enhanced risk area is located down in the ARKLATex area. Then, a good chance for showers and storms Thurs and Fri. Keeping chances small on Sat but ramping back up a bit for Sunday and esp on Memorial Day itself. From Wed thru Monday some folks could pick up 1-2" of rainfall so localized flash flooding will be an issue once again. As usual, some will see over 2" and some less then an inch. Just the way it goes with t-storms as you all know.
Finally... as a side note.... if you live in KY today is our primary so please vote if you are a KY Resident and are able to do so! Thank you! I plan on voting after work today on my way home.
Les I am a independent voter and have always been. The bad news I am unable to vote in the primary elections which is sad at best.
Seems like a crazy rule that independent voters can't vote in their state primary and I'm sure our Founding Fathers would have agreed.
Currently 72 here in G'ville and progged to top out around 88.
Too bad the CPC page is still down.
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue May 21, 2024 8:49 am
by tron777
CVG got down to 62 this morning. The dew point atm is registering just fine. Let's see how long that lasts.
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue May 21, 2024 9:07 am
by tron777
I looked at the Ensembles (GEFS and EPS) and for the end of May into the 1st week of June (Model fantasy range mind you) but both models show a persistent trough over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with ridging over S Canada and the Rockies. This is like an El Nino pattern with an Aleutian Low pumping up the ridge to our West so that we get a downstream trough over us. The La Nina doesn't appear to be influencing our weather pattern just yet so that is why I went with a low number of 90s for the first part of summer with regards to our 90 degree days contest. Then I went hotter with more 90s for the second half as I believe that La Nina will be taking more control of the pattern by then (-PNA, trough West, Ridge East). As always, we shall see!
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue May 21, 2024 10:22 am
by tron777
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue May 21, 2024 10:58 am
by tron777
An update from the boys for the rest of today:
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Dry weather conditions favored across the CWA today. Main story
will be the hot and humid air mass that will continue to provide
warmer than normal temperatures throughout the Ohio Valley. A
few locations may be able to reach the 90 degree mark today,
with dewpoints hanging around the lower to middle 60s.
While no large-scale forcing/ascent will be in place, this
unstable air mass may allow for diurnally driven
showers/storms, mainly across portions of southern OH/northern
KY. Anything that develops will be isolated in nature, but a low
chance does exist for this potential.
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue May 21, 2024 11:00 am
by dce
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2024 8:49 am
CVG got down to 62 this morning. The dew point atm is registering just fine. Let's see how long that lasts.
Dayton only got down to 69. Quite a warm night up here.
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2024 8:49 am
CVG got down to 62 this morning. The dew point atm is registering just fine. Let's see how long that lasts.
Dayton only got down to 69. Quite a warm night up here.
CVG has skyrocketed now to 81 with a dew of 64 as of 11am. Looks like Dayton is similar at 81 / 65.
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue May 21, 2024 12:28 pm
by Bgoney
12z Gfs showing Sunday about as ugly as it gets with showers/storms all day long. No thank you
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue May 21, 2024 1:03 pm
by tron777
Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2024 12:28 pm
12z Gfs showing Sunday about as ugly as it gets with showers/storms all day long. No thank you
Yeah it looks like a pretty potent MCS too. The GFS is hitting Tues of next week pretty hard also. Looks like Saturday is the best day for me to fire up the smoker and cook some ribs! If the model is right, Memorial Day (MD) itself may not be too bad after all. Originally, it was looking like MD was the tough day but now that has been coming in for Sunday as you mentioned.
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue May 21, 2024 1:06 pm
by tron777
12Z Euro isn't out yet but the 0Z run has later in the day Sun into Sun night for the MCS with a decent MD. Then like the GFS, it hits us hard again on Tues of next week.
