April 2024 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Rain showers continue to try and move in from the south. Eventually, the rain wins out for tomorrow and Thurs. We will be post frontal on Fri with lingering backside showers and cooler temps. I am going dry this weekend with a nice warming trend. Hopefully, we don't see a warm front come in for Sunday. Hopefully, that holds off until Monday 4/16 to give us a nice upcoming weekend. The GFS wants to bring in some showers on Sunday now. We shall see as usual. Until then... active is the key word for the ongoing work week.

[MVWxObserver]

Currently 72 here in G'ville and 69 DAY.

[tron777]

Only 63 at CVG as of the 2pm reading.

[Trevor]

Not overly enthusiastic about the severe probs on Thu. Looks like another really messy setup. As Bgoney said before, we need better capping in the warm sector or else we will have junk showers/storms that contaminate the atmosphere. Best threat Thu east of 75 and I see no reason to upgrade. Marginal to slight should do it — isolated to scattered severe.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 65 and both DAY / CMH 70 today.

[tron777]

Not overly enthusiastic about the severe probs on Thu. Looks like another really messy setup. As Bgoney said before, we need better capping in the warm sector or else we will have junk showers/storms that contaminate the atmosphere. Best threat Thu east of 75 and I see no reason to upgrade. Marginal to slight should do it — isolated to scattered severe.

I'm good with it. My back needs a break picking up fallen timber. Would rather take the rain lol

[tron777]

Speaking of rain, there is some light rain out there this morning. 0.05" at CVG as of 4am. We are still looking at numerous showers and t-storm coverage today and tomorrow with lingering action on Friday. Still keeping my fingers crossed that we will have a wonderful weather weekend on tap.

Could our 1st 80 of the year come next Monday? It will be close!

[tron777]

Widespread light rain will push up into the region from the south. NKY will of course see it first followed by the rest of the region. A low pressure system in deep South Texas will move NE today and thru IN tomorrow bringing more rain and t--storms to the area. If we see any severe wx on Thurs, our SE counties have the best chance if we see any at all.

[tpweather]

Widespread light rain will push up into the region from the south. NKY will of course see it first followed by the rest of the region. A low pressure system in deep South Texas will move NE today and thru IN tomorrow bringing more rain and t--storms to the area. If we see any severe wx on Thurs, our SE counties have the best chance if we see any at all.

Good Morning Les and great forecast. I agree 100p/c and I am going with 1-2 inches total on rainfall as a general rule . Everybody will get wet and of course with any system some folks may get less or more than predicted but it won't be by much. Weekend looks good and full out spring is headed our way. When I was in Brown County and we are deep into the woods the tree buds were way behind. Next trip is to Wisconsin and probably in about 2 weeks even though up there it can still snow in late April.

[tpweather]

I agree about the severe threat as well from folks on here. Looks very messy and sure we can see a few thunderstorms get strong but an outbreak like last week I don't see unless this storm system gets stronger,further west and slows down.

[tron777]

Widespread light rain will push up into the region from the south. NKY will of course see it first followed by the rest of the region. A low pressure system in deep South Texas will move NE today and thru IN tomorrow bringing more rain and t--storms to the area. If we see any severe wx on Thurs, our SE counties have the best chance if we see any at all.

Good Morning Les and great forecast. I agree 100p/c and I am going with 1-2 inches total on rainfall as a general rule . Everybody will get wet and of course with any system some folks may get less or more than predicted but it won't be by much. Weekend looks good and full out spring is headed our way. When I was in Brown County and we are deep into the woods the tree buds were way behind. Next trip is to Wisconsin and probably in about 2 weeks even though up there it can still snow in late April.

I have been posting 1-2" totals also for the last few days Tim. Although, we will need some t-storms tomorrow for us to make it into that range. We've got a long ways to go. Using CVG, we are still sitting at 0.05" as of 8am.

[tron777]

I agree about the severe threat as well from folks on here. Looks very messy and sure we can see a few thunderstorms get strong but an outbreak like last week I don't see unless this storm system gets stronger,further west and slows down.

Agreed. I don't think we will be seeing much in the way of sunshine until this weekend.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and sort of looking around the country. Still plenty of rainfall for the southern states though by next week Florida may start to dry out but that is usual for them this time of year. The slow climb to summer is what we want and so far that is happening for much of the country. Will this continue into early June and no idea but so far so good in helping keep any short term drought from occurring. Saying that I have seen a wet spring turn off the faucet in mid-June and then the summer is dry so even a wet spring does not always mean we are clear on those short term droughts and most summers we get a good 2-3 week period where it is dry but we don't want a 2-3 month period.

[tron777]

Boone Co mesonet site is up to 0.06" CVG still holding at 0.05"

[tron777]

LOL @ the 12Z NAM. 2.84" is being shown by the model from now thru 8am Friday, Likely, the model is suffering from convective feedback. The call is for 1-2" from myself and Tim. However, as I've said before, we have a long ways to go.

[tpweather]

LOL @ the 12Z NAM. 2.84" is being shown by the model from now thru 8am Friday, Likely, the model is suffering from convective feedback. The call is for 1-2" from myself and Tim. However, as I've said before, we have a long ways to go.

Les we know these models will go back and forth and the next run it may be 0.77 at CVG but 2.84 in Dayton. I try and look at all the major sites int he tri-state with a system like this and then make my forecast. I have not checked the nam yet for other sites but my guess not many other places are showing 2.84 lol

[tron777]

LOL @ the 12Z NAM. 2.84" is being shown by the model from now thru 8am Friday, Likely, the model is suffering from convective feedback. The call is for 1-2" from myself and Tim. However, as I've said before, we have a long ways to go.

Les we know these models will go back and forth and the next run it may be 0.77 at CVG but 2.84 in Dayton. I try and look at all the major sites int he tri-state with a system like this and then make my forecast. I have not checked the nam yet for other sites but my guess not many other places are showing 2.84 lol

The NAM is showing big totals for everyone. 2.69" for DAY The model shows the low deepening and moving right over Cincinnati so we get hit with several rounds of t-storms and thus the higher totals. With how things are going, it looks doubtful that we get to 2". Hoping an inch will work on the lower end of our scale.

[tron777]

CVG is up to 0.08" now as of 11am... we are slowly inching our way up!

[tpweather]

CVG is up to 0.08" now as of 11am... we are slowly inching our way up!

Yes we are Les. No doubt a tropical feed into this system so somebody will get a nice dose of rain but I need a few more model runs to try and figure out where the heaviest of rain will occur. Not going to complain about the rain even if we get the higher totals. Much better spring this year than last in terms of rainfall.

[tron777]

The GooFuS is running now so we'll see shortly how much rain it paints for the area. Based on radar and how much we are actually seeing fall, I have lowered my call to 1" instead of 1-2".

[tpweather]

The GooFuS is running now so we'll see shortly how much rain it paints for the area. Based on radar and how much we are actually seeing fall, I have lowered my call to 1" instead of 1-2".

Les sticking with the 1-2 inches because adding the tropical feed I believe some downpours are going to happen. See what the models show this afternoon but at this time I need to keep the higher end with my forecast

[tron777]

12Z GFS also has the low deepening and the track is just a hair NW of where the NAM had it. Total QPF from this model for the area is around 1-2" thru 8am Friday. 1" in the SE, 2" in the NW.

[tron777]

Rainfall totals at CVG as of 1pm are now at 0.11".

[tron777]

SPC has updated the severe wx outlook for tomorrow. No changes for our local area. Still a marginal risk NW of I-71, and a slight risk SE of I-71. They added an enhanced risk area for SE Ohio on this new update so again, the best chance for severe wx still looks to be well east of our area. Best chance in AV land will be our Eastern counties as previously stated.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and not much change in the forecast. Best chances of heavier rain will be in the overnight and especially in that 4-9a time period. Next chance will be later in the afternoon as the front comes through but how fast and what recovery time from the morning rains will help determine the afternoon period. Still going 1-2 through Friday afternoon when the system is out of here. Then spring kicks into gear with many days in the 70's over the next week