Absolute Vorticity

The only changes I have in the short term is to say that the rain might be in a little earlier Thurs so we'll have to see if that screws with the t-storm threat for Thurs. The weekend looks sunny. Cold on Sat but very nice on Sun for outdoor plans. Then we all need to keep a close eye on end of Feb / early Mar time frame for strong to severe storms. I've been saying that for a few days myself on and off.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:38 am The only changes I have in the short term is to say that the rain might be in a little earlier Thurs so we'll have to see if that screws with the t-storm threat for Thurs. The weekend looks sunny. Cold on Sat but very nice on Sun for outdoor plans. Then we all need to keep a close eye on end of Feb / early Mar time frame for strong to severe storms. I've been saying that for a few days myself on and off.

Yeah man that has the potential to be a big time outbreak for a large chunk of real estate.

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:48 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:38 am The only changes I have in the short term is to say that the rain might be in a little earlier Thurs so we'll have to see if that screws with the t-storm threat for Thurs. The weekend looks sunny. Cold on Sat but very nice on Sun for outdoor plans. Then we all need to keep a close eye on end of Feb / early Mar time frame for strong to severe storms. I've been saying that for a few days myself on and off.

Yeah man that has the potential to be a big time outbreak for a large chunk of real estate.

Could be the first good Plains / Midwest chase of 2024. This far away... the only downer I see for us is potentially being too far away from the cold front. TONS of time as you know, to see how this whole thing evolves. I still think we have a chance to see storms, then some light snow a few days later in early March following the t-storm event. We've seen that happen time and time again over the years.

14 yesterday morning at CVG, 21 officially for today's low temp. The next 3 days look very nice. Then we get wet on Thurs.

Dec/Jan/Feb snow totals, at least we’re not in top ten

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 8:23 am Dec/Jan/Feb snow totals, at least we’re not in top ten




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To me, this is actually a bit comforting. I really thought that we were close to a #10 ranking lol Thank goodness we got something out of this last event to save us from the depths of non-winter hell.

Per the Aussies.... as of 2/17, we were about to drop into the COD from Phase 7. Being that today is 2/19, we are likely in the COD now. Most of the models have the MJO coming out and stalling weakly in Phase 4 to end February. If that occurs for late Feb / early Mar, for the time of year, Phase 4 is a torch with wet conditions also possible. This again is pointing to a possible period to watch for stronger t-storm potential as you keep hearing us mention from time to time. That's about all I've got for you all for the rest of Feb. A normal rain maker this Thurs, then we see how things evolve on the stormier side to end this month and being March. Could March come in like a Lion? Stay tuned to find out. Odds are yes at this time.

EPS has been really good in its 10-14 day air mass/500mb outlooks all season . Did well with the current brief cool down and is looking good with the next 10-14 days with what we’ve talked about this morning. MJO collapse fits the upcoming jet retraction with a split back to the dateline , finally getting the polar jet active and major trough in the west resulting in a SWflow at times , mixed in with normal late Feb/March cool downs,for most of the eastern lower 48

As of right now.... CVG has only seen 0.57" of precip for the month. That currently ranks as the 5th driest. See the Top Ten driest Feb's below.


I am expecting us to get out of the Top Ten thanks to our next system coming in this Thurs as well as a more active pattern developing as we close out the month.

We’ve got 42 days to get out of top ten for the season , one from starting in Nov. and Dec.

Only 43 as of 1pm at CVG. I thought U40s to around 50 the other day. Figures....

I managed to hit 50 today....49 as of 4pm at CVG so we finally managed to hit the mark on highs today! I just didn't think a few hours ago that we would actually accomplish this. One more night in the 20s tonight but once the sun starts doing it's thing, we could soar into the middle 50s by this time tomorrow.

Pete1 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 7:00 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 5:03 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 4:20 pm 44 here. Ground is snow free

Ditto... minus a few shaded areas.

Well Les. We had one day of snow cover. I guess it’s better than 0 days of snow cover. Still pathetic, but the snow gods seemed to have turned their backs on us.

I still blame Jason and his snowblower. lol The day he showed the world that snowblower was the day it all went bad for us. lol

If you read this Jason, I’m just kidding ….lol

I miss the guy and would like to see him get involved here via discussions!

Don't know why he's been absent for so long.

CVG got to 50 and both DAY / CMH 45 today.

Hit 51 here

Yesterday had a low temp of -69°F at Yurty, Russia

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:58 pm

Pete1 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 7:00 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 5:03 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 4:20 pm 44 here. Ground is snow free

Ditto... minus a few shaded areas.

Well Les. We had one day of snow cover. I guess it’s better than 0 days of snow cover. Still pathetic, but the snow gods seemed to have turned their backs on us.

I still blame Jason and his snowblower. lol The day he showed the world that snowblower was the day it all went bad for us. lol

If you read this Jason, I’m just kidding ….lol

I miss the guy and would like to see him get involved here via discussions!

Don't know why he's been absent for so long.

He knows we are here. He has an account with us since the new forum came online. I talk to him on facebook every now and again.

Good Tues morning to you all! Lovely weather today and tomorrow before we get wet on Thurs. Thurs looks like a pretty wet day with periods of rain and t-storms expected. I do not expect any severe wx. I am also upping my rainfall amounts to the 0.50 - 1" range.

We briefly cool down into the 40s for Fri and Sat but shoot right back up into the 60s by Monday of next week. 65+ looking possible too. Then we watch for rain and t-storms Tues thru Thurs to close out the month. Anything strong or severe TBD.

Per the Aussies.... as of 2/18 the MJO entered the circle of death. We'll have to wait and see when and where it re-emerges down the road. I suspect Phase is very likely since we continue to see a -PNA pattern as we head into early March. We will also have to wait and see if that translates into any severe wx for us. There certainly should be some to our West.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 4:34 am Good Tues morning to you all! Lovely weather today and tomorrow before we get wet on Thurs. Thurs looks like a pretty wet day with periods of rain and t-storms expected. I do not expect any severe wx. I am also upping my rainfall amounts to the 0.50 - 1" range.

We briefly cool down into the 40s for Fri and Sat but shoot right back up into the 60s by Monday of next week. 65+ looking possible too. Then we watch for rain and t-storms Tues thru Thurs to close out the month. Anything strong or severe TBD.

For Late Feb early March The last 10-15 years it has seemed to have increased the occurrence for severe weather especially east of the Mississippi. With The look for this period atm , I don’t see that changing this year

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 8:33 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 4:34 am Good Tues morning to you all! Lovely weather today and tomorrow before we get wet on Thurs. Thurs looks like a pretty wet day with periods of rain and t-storms expected. I do not expect any severe wx. I am also upping my rainfall amounts to the 0.50 - 1" range.

We briefly cool down into the 40s for Fri and Sat but shoot right back up into the 60s by Monday of next week. 65+ looking possible too. Then we watch for rain and t-storms Tues thru Thurs to close out the month. Anything strong or severe TBD.

For Late Feb early March The last 10-15 years it has seemed to have increased the occurrence for severe weather especially east of the Mississippi. With The look for this period atm , I don’t see that changing this year

Totally agree, I am gaining confidence on severe wx occurring to our West. No clue if we see any or get the usual leftovers.

EPS 5 day mean anomalies through March 5

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 12:26 pm EPS 5 day mean anomalies through March 5




IMG_1478.gif

I hate seeing warmth this time of year. It almost always means things will begin to bud out and wake up, only to be killed later on in the spring by a freeze. It never fails except in 2012.

53 now as of 1pm at CVG. A beautiful day in progress.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 12:34 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 12:26 pm EPS 5 day mean anomalies through March 5




IMG_1478.gif

I hate seeing warmth this time of year. It almost always means things will begin to bud out and wake up, only to be killed later on in the spring by a freeze. It never fails except in 2012.

We needed this cool spell bad from a plant perspective , we were a good 2 weeks ahead schedule in the waking up process. Looks like we’ll be right back there in the coming weeks