Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Sun Jan 14, 2024 5:27 pm**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 5:13 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 5:06 pm 18Z GFS is a tad further to the south on this run for Thurs / Fri. We get all of the snow on Thurs 0.22" QPF at CVG and Friday ends up being a swing and a miss.
An interesting setup for sure . 3 scenarios imo , we get the qpf from the northern wave, or a combo of northern qpf and southern qpf , or we see the familiar Cincinnati split where northern moisture stays near I-70 and southern moisture misses south/east

The third option is kind of what is going to happen for tonight thru Tues. I am concerned it may happen again with Thurs / Fri too. I sure hope not of course but I do have an uneasy feeling since our luck has been dreadful in the snow dept for a long time.

Posted: **Sun Jan 14, 2024 5:42 pm**

CVG / DAY both had 24 and CMH 27 today in the predawn.

Posted: **Sun Jan 14, 2024 5:44 pm**

18Z GEFS QPF Mean is about 0.25" for the I-70 Crew and almost 0.20" for CVG. This is for the Thurs / Fri period.

Posted: **Sun Jan 14, 2024 5:59 pm**

Looking ahead and what a change once again with a nice January Thaw. How long does the warmth last and just to early to figure out. Hopefully February becomes our friend again really January has not been bad but unlucky in terms of snow so far. We love the Polar Vortex and hate is sometimes lol.

Posted: **Sun Jan 14, 2024 7:10 pm**

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 5:59 pm Looking ahead and what a change once again with a nice January Thaw. How long does the warmth last and just to early to figure out. Hopefully February becomes our friend again really January has not been bad but unlucky in terms of snow so far. We love the Polar Vortex and hate is sometimes lol.

Yep. A nice blocking pattern with sustainable cold air and an active STJ. We've had some bad luck. Plain and simple.

Posted: **Sun Jan 14, 2024 9:38 pm**

Juneau,Alaska expecting anywhere form 14-23 inches over the next 24 hours or so. Yes they get big snows but many times during the winter a switch to rain happens during the storm. This one may happen as well but not before they get the heavy snows

Posted: **Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:40 am**

Good morning all! 6 degrees at CVG, 7 in my backyard right now. 0Z GFS reduced QPF, about 0.12" for CVG for the Thurs / Fri system. The 0Z Euro had about 0.21" for us.

Posted: **Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:52 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:40 am Good morning all! 6 degrees at CVG, 7 in my backyard right now. 0Z GFS reduced QPF, about 0.12" for CVG for the Thurs / Fri system. The 0Z Euro had about 0.21" for us.

Models so far favor an I-70 special. Still going to be a couple days before things solidify from a forecast standpoint. It’s definitely on my list to watch closely.

Posted: **Mon Jan 15, 2024 6:30 am**

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:52 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:40 am Good morning all! 6 degrees at CVG, 7 in my backyard right now. 0Z GFS reduced QPF, about 0.12" for CVG for the Thurs / Fri system. The 0Z Euro had about 0.21" for us.
Models so far favor an I-70 special. Still going to be a couple days before things solidify from a forecast standpoint. It’s definitely on my list to watch closely.

What concerns me the most Trev is a previous post that Bgoney made yesterday offering up three different scenarios. The last option was I-70 gets wave 1 and wave 2 misses us to the south leaving the Cincy area in no man's land.

Posted: **Mon Jan 15, 2024 6:31 am**

5 degrees as of 6am at CVG.

Posted: **Mon Jan 15, 2024 6:46 am**

IMG_1183.jpeg

IMG_1184.jpeg

Posted: **Mon Jan 15, 2024 7:12 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 6:30 am
Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:52 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:40 am Good morning all! 6 degrees at CVG, 7 in my backyard right now. 0Z GFS reduced QPF, about 0.12" for CVG for the Thurs / Fri system. The 0Z Euro had about 0.21" for us.
Models so far favor an I-70 special. Still going to be a couple days before things solidify from a forecast standpoint. It’s definitely on my list to watch closely.
What concerns me the most Trev is a previous post that Bgoney made yesterday offering up three different scenarios. The last option was I-70 gets wave 1 and wave 2 misses us to the south leaving the Cincy area in no man's land.

Sure hope we can cash in on this opportunity, because as mentioned yesterday, opportunities the rest of the month dwindle

Posted: **Mon Jan 15, 2024 7:27 am**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 7:12 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 6:30 am
Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:52 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:40 am Good morning all! 6 degrees at CVG, 7 in my backyard right now. 0Z GFS reduced QPF, about 0.12" for CVG for the Thurs / Fri system. The 0Z Euro had about 0.21" for us.
Models so far favor an I-70 special. Still going to be a couple days before things solidify from a forecast standpoint. It’s definitely on my list to watch closely.
What concerns me the most Trev is a previous post that Bgoney made yesterday offering up three different scenarios. The last option was I-70 gets wave 1 and wave 2 misses us to the south leaving the Cincy area in no man's land.
Sure hope we can cash in on this opportunity, because as mentioned yesterday, opportunities the rest of the month dwindle

No doubt! We are on the same page for sure.

Posted: **Mon Jan 15, 2024 8:07 am**

I guess township’s figure they need to start getting rid of their salt supply because they put down enough salt for our dusting over the weekend as if it were a major snowfall.

Posted: **Mon Jan 15, 2024 8:08 am**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 8:07 am I guess township’s figure they need to start getting rid of their salt supply because they put down enough salt for our dusting over the weekend as if it were a major snowfall.

I know! The interstates are white with salt also. Use it or lose it as they say. Looks like CVG has fallen to 4 degrees now as of 8am.

Posted: **Mon Jan 15, 2024 8:53 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 6:30 am
Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:52 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:40 am Good morning all! 6 degrees at CVG, 7 in my backyard right now. 0Z GFS reduced QPF, about 0.12" for CVG for the Thurs / Fri system. The 0Z Euro had about 0.21" for us.
Models so far favor an I-70 special. Still going to be a couple days before things solidify from a forecast standpoint. It’s definitely on my list to watch closely.
What concerns me the most Trev is a previous post that Bgoney made yesterday offering up three different scenarios. The last option was I-70 gets wave 1 and wave 2 misses us to the south leaving the Cincy area in no man's land.

While that is possible, I'm not too worried about that attm. We are a few days out and 3 out of 4 of the major global models support at least some accumulating snow here in town. Details on placement of the heaviest is TBD but I think where we sit is okay attm for at least something.

Posted: **Mon Jan 15, 2024 8:54 am**

Probably going to be a situation where the heaviest band is 3-5" and areas right around that band see 1-3".

Posted: **Mon Jan 15, 2024 8:56 am**

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 8:54 am Probably going to be a situation where the heaviest band is 3-5" and areas right around that band see 1-3".

I'd be happy just to see the grass covered.

Posted: **Mon Jan 15, 2024 8:56 am**

Here's a rundown of the latest runs for the Top 4...

The Euro would be the solution that is bothering you. Again it is entirely possible, but that solution only has one supporter right now and that is the Euro. The rest give us at least something.

Posted: **Mon Jan 15, 2024 9:02 am**

Anyone know if the EPS gives us any QPF? It's been on a good roll lately.

Posted: **Mon Jan 15, 2024 9:07 am**

Here ya go Les...

Posted: **Mon Jan 15, 2024 9:08 am**

Here's the GFS Ens while we are at it...

Posted: **Mon Jan 15, 2024 9:11 am**

Thanks Trev... that's a good 1-3" snowfall on the Ensembles then. As usual, we shall see!

Posted: **Mon Jan 15, 2024 9:29 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 9:11 am Thanks Trev... that's a good 1-3" snowfall on the Ensembles then. As usual, we shall see!

Right we still have a couple days to fine-tune the forecast. This is probably not going to be the final outcome but as you said it certainly needs to be watched.

Posted: **Mon Jan 15, 2024 9:55 am**

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 9:29 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 9:11 am Thanks Trev... that's a good 1-3" snowfall on the Ensembles then. As usual, we shall see!
Right we still have a couple days to fine-tune the forecast. This is probably not going to be the final outcome but as you said it certainly needs to be watched.

I may try my luck at starting a thread for it by tonight or tomorrow if it doesn't fall apart on us.

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