Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 15, 2023 10:48 am Nice call Trev with regards to the speed of the northern shortwave. 12Z GFS is slowing things down a tad as well.

Yeah that trend started yesterday so it seems to be sticking. There is also some enhancement in the precip locally as the storm begins to phase.

Still liking the chance for widespread snow showers/squalls on Monday. Could see some gusts up to 35mph and reduced visibilities under the heavier squalls. Dustings likely mainly on elevated and grassy surfaces.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 15, 2023 10:34 am New MEI value is out for ON. It is at 0.8 per: https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

Wow. You can clearly see on the chart the other 3 super ninos. Way over 2.0. This Super Nino is very different. Hopefully we get a different outcome. We all know how bad those Ninos were.

dce wrote: ↑Fri Dec 15, 2023 12:19 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 15, 2023 10:34 am New MEI value is out for ON. It is at 0.8 per: https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

Wow. You can clearly see on the chart the other 3 super ninos. Way over 2.0. This Super Nino is very different. Hopefully we get a different outcome. We all know how bad those Ninos were.

For now... the data looks good from mid January thru February and if correct, that should be our best time to cash in if we're going too. Anything prior to that is a bonus.

Euro has 0.50” for Cincy with the band of best rains off to the east instead of over the tri-state.

Good Afternoon and just got back from the funeral. There looks to be a heavier band when the two pieces of energy in the Ohio Valley meet. Timing is key and if it happens during that 4a-10a time period this almost always increases rainfall. I understand the models that are going higher and though I believe the most likely totals to be near that 1/2 inch mark some folks may be a tad less and some if again the timing is correct could keep upwards of an 1 inch

What a beautiful day to get the chore’s done. Still like .25-.75” for the tri- cities. No point in posting the 500mb maps out through the 28th cause they still look the same as they have for so many weeks. Going to need a big jolt from something to shuffle the 500mb pattern

Got a fire going at my brother's tonight. Nice night for it!!

Glad the Bengals / Vikings is the early one for Sat with mostly dry conditions much of the game.

Currently 41 here in G'ville and progged for around the freezing mark on Sat morning.

CVG reached 55, DAY 56 and CMH 53 today.

We are getting into better range of the high-res models which is good! I like the placement of the snow showers/squalls on Monday. I am going with a general dusting to an inch call for that mainly on grassy/elevated surfaces. Definitely think there will be travel impacts for the Mon PM commute due to rapid reductions in visibility under the heavier snow showers/squalls. Could we see our first snow squall warnings of the season in our CWA? I think it's pretty likely.

NAM and Canadian are pretty juicy! I think everyone is game, but areas north and northeast have the best chance for seeing those inch (maybe a bit more) amounts.

Based on model trends over the past 24 hours, I am adjusting my forecast from 0.50-0.75" to 0.50-1.00" of rainfall.

That is one stout ULL! I continue to like the setup for Monday more and more.

Wow Trev! Glad I leave work early now at 3 lol. Hope to see those flakes. It would sure put me more into the Christmas spirit lol

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 16, 2023 7:26 am Wow Trev! Glad I leave work early now at 3 lol. Hope to see those flakes. It would sure put me more into the Christmas spirit lol

Yeah man I think the Mon PM commute may be a rough one!

A nice start to the day today though. We are going to fire up the smoker here at my brother's and cook a beautiful boneless pork loin and some chicken legs too. Put on some football too!

Les you are living the good life. I am pure blue color and love the simple things in life and having a nice fire pit,a smoker with good food,plenty of beer and watching football is all I need.

Trev great posts this morning and I agree 100p/c on Monday afternoon as that looks to be a nice piece of energy on top of us for some decent snow showers. The rain totals are still a little hazy for me and I believe most folks will be near the .50 I can see where some folks who get in the heavier band Sunday morning could see totals nearing 1 inch but also if you are just outside that area some folks may not reach the .50. I guess my final call will be 0.33-0.75 as the most likely totals but a few folks may be outside that range.

Compared to 24 hours ago the Nam is further west and this is a good sign especially for the system on Monday. If this system stayed off the coast the chances of getting snow showers on Monday would probably be northeast of the local area but with a more western path this should no doubt have that disturbance come further west as well.

Who -Dey. Bengals have a perfect day for football. No adjustments needed in forecast. Late Monday should get everyone in a Christmas mood.

Thanks Tim! It's a beautiful day to be outside today for sure!!

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 16, 2023 8:24 am A nice start to the day today though. We are going to fire up the smoker here at my brother's and cook a beautiful boneless pork loin and some chicken legs too. Put on some football too!

GO BENGALS, COLTS, AND LIONS and they'll all be aired on NFL Network!

Currently 41 here in G'ville and progged for around 51 today.

I will have the NFL network going on in my brother's shop lol

Coming down for the University of Dayton vs the University of Cincinnati basketball game tonight at the Heritage Bank Center. Stopping at the Boathouse for our pre-game meal. Should be a fun day. Hoping to get out of town before the rain arrives.

Here's my snowfall forecast update (graphic and text discussion)...

Trevor wrote: ↑Sat Dec 16, 2023 2:10 pm Here's my snowfall forecast update (graphic and text discussion)...

I truly hope that verifies for us snow starved weather weenies. Seems plausible to me considering how potent that little upper level wave is. Should look festive come Monday night. And feel festive too with the windchills.