Good Morning Les and great post and we are on the same page. I mentioned this morning about the -NAO which is much more negative than previous runs plus as you mentioned the mjo goes into 2-3 then tries to head towards the COD. The pna is forecast to be neutral later next week and that works as well and like you mentioned a -pna does not work well but a neutral to slightly positive is better and a strong positive pna usually means we are cold but dry. Even saying that other items need to work together to get us a bigger storm. I agree about Sunday and does the precip get in here before temps rise in the morning as the ground should be cold enough in the early morning hours that any frz/rain frz/drizzle could cause a few problems early on. Still a chance for some snow in the Ohio Valley but looks mainly north of I-70. My question is the first low rides east and heads towards us for Sunday but there is another piece of energy over south central Canada that will be moving this way as well. Can they get together soon enough to produce a somewhat stronger storm or do they stay apart and we end up with some snow showers on Monday. The STJ though looks to remain to far south for this system though all 3 could meet off the east coast early next week. End of next week has chances as well if the current tellies stay in place. Hopefully that will be ironed out more over the next several days. I still believe a milder period will come during the second and third weeks of the month but how mild is something we can figure out in the next week.
Re: November 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 23, 2023 10:25 am
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2023 10:16 am
Good Morning Les and great post and we are on the same page. I mentioned this morning about the -NAO which is much more negative than previous runs plus as you mentioned the mjo goes into 2-3 then tries to head towards the COD. The pna is forecast to be neutral later next week and that works as well and like you mentioned a -pna does not work well but a neutral to slightly positive is better and a strong positive pna usually means we are cold but dry. Even saying that other items need to work together to get us a bigger storm. I agree about Sunday and does the precip get in here before temps rise in the morning as the ground should be cold enough in the early morning hours that any frz/rain frz/drizzle could cause a few problems early on. Still a chance for some snow in the Ohio Valley but looks mainly north of I-70. My question is the first low rides east and heads towards us for Sunday but there is another piece of energy over south central Canada that will be moving this way as well. Can they get together soon enough to produce a somewhat stronger storm or do they stay apart and we end up with some snow showers on Monday. The STJ though looks to remain to far south for this system though all 3 could meet off the east coast early next week. End of next week has chances as well if the current tellies stay in place. Hopefully that will be ironed out more over the next several days. I still believe a milder period will come during the second and third weeks of the month but how mild is something we can figure out in the next week.
Good morning Tim! The state of the Pacific isn't very good for long lasting cold and snow chances. We need to get rid of the Gulf of Alaska trough. We get a -NAO but the EPO is positive and that is no good for cold air delivery into the Eastern US. With that said, I am seeing hints of ridging trying to return somewhat at the end of the GEFS and EPS model runs. GEPS is much colder since it has better AK ridging. The state of the Pacific is really more important then the -NAO.
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2023 10:16 am
Good Morning Les and great post and we are on the same page. I mentioned this morning about the -NAO which is much more negative than previous runs plus as you mentioned the mjo goes into 2-3 then tries to head towards the COD. The pna is forecast to be neutral later next week and that works as well and like you mentioned a -pna does not work well but a neutral to slightly positive is better and a strong positive pna usually means we are cold but dry. Even saying that other items need to work together to get us a bigger storm. I agree about Sunday and does the precip get in here before temps rise in the morning as the ground should be cold enough in the early morning hours that any frz/rain frz/drizzle could cause a few problems early on. Still a chance for some snow in the Ohio Valley but looks mainly north of I-70. My question is the first low rides east and heads towards us for Sunday but there is another piece of energy over south central Canada that will be moving this way as well. Can they get together soon enough to produce a somewhat stronger storm or do they stay apart and we end up with some snow showers on Monday. The STJ though looks to remain to far south for this system though all 3 could meet off the east coast early next week. End of next week has chances as well if the current tellies stay in place. Hopefully that will be ironed out more over the next several days. I still believe a milder period will come during the second and third weeks of the month but how mild is something we can figure out in the next week.
Good morning Tim! The state of the Pacific isn't very good for long lasting cold and snow chances. We need to get rid of the Gulf of Alaska trough. We get a -NAO but the EPO is positive and that is no good for cold air delivery into the Eastern US. With that said, I am seeing hints of ridging trying to return somewhat at the end of the GEFS and EPS model runs. GEPS is much colder since it has better AK ridging. The state of the Pacific is really more important then the -NAO.
Hey Les. No doubt we need the pacific to work as well. Just going with models during the past week or so both showed ridging over Alaska and Greenland for next week. Well as we get closer it seems to me the Alaskan ridge has a hard time building but the Greenland ridge at this time looks like it may happen. So there is your -NAO but without the Alaskan ridge we are not going to get as cold and that will be more towards the northeast USA. The northeast had a worse winter than us last year compared to normal but with the set up we are starting to see for this winter Mother Nature is no doubt trying to balance things out once again.
Re: November 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 23, 2023 11:21 am
by Trevor
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2023 10:16 am
Good Morning Les and great post and we are on the same page. I mentioned this morning about the -NAO which is much more negative than previous runs plus as you mentioned the mjo goes into 2-3 then tries to head towards the COD. The pna is forecast to be neutral later next week and that works as well and like you mentioned a -pna does not work well but a neutral to slightly positive is better and a strong positive pna usually means we are cold but dry. Even saying that other items need to work together to get us a bigger storm. I agree about Sunday and does the precip get in here before temps rise in the morning as the ground should be cold enough in the early morning hours that any frz/rain frz/drizzle could cause a few problems early on. Still a chance for some snow in the Ohio Valley but looks mainly north of I-70. My question is the first low rides east and heads towards us for Sunday but there is another piece of energy over south central Canada that will be moving this way as well. Can they get together soon enough to produce a somewhat stronger storm or do they stay apart and we end up with some snow showers on Monday. The STJ though looks to remain to far south for this system though all 3 could meet off the east coast early next week. End of next week has chances as well if the current tellies stay in place. Hopefully that will be ironed out more over the next several days. I still believe a milder period will come during the second and third weeks of the month but how mild is something we can figure out in the next week.
Good post! I like a 1-3” band and like you said that currently looks to be I-70 north. Somewhere in the northern parts of OH and IN. I do also like some backlash snow showers Sunday night down this way but moisture is limited so not expecting much. The cold temps Mon and Tue will be the bigger story.
Re: November 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 23, 2023 11:32 am
by MVWxObserver
HAVE A BLESSED AND HAPPYTHANKSGIVING AV COMMUNITY FAMILY!!
Currently 48 here in G'ville and progged to top out at around 50 today.
Re: November 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 23, 2023 11:43 am
by tpweather
Good Morning Trev and Eric. Hope both of you have a wonderful Thanksgiving. Models are starting to show a system later next week and again when you get a pattern change models will catch up to us. The system next week is one I expect to happen quite often this winter and that is a southern plains storm forming in milder air and heading northeast. How deep the cold is locally will determine if we get any winter weather. Late next week we are starting to come out of the coldest of air but again another system where we need to see if any frozen precip happens before the warmth takes over the local area. Way too soon but keeps us busy on the forum.
Trev great call for today and the Euro no doubt nailed the sunny sky today. I missed this forecast but overall in the past 20 years I have hit enough of this pattern so once in awhile you will miss one.
Re: November 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 23, 2023 12:53 pm
by Trevor
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2023 11:43 am
Good Morning Trev and Eric. Hope both of you have a wonderful Thanksgiving. Models are starting to show a system later next week and again when you get a pattern change models will catch up to us. The system next week is one I expect to happen quite often this winter and that is a southern plains storm forming in milder air and heading northeast. How deep the cold is locally will determine if we get any winter weather. Late next week we are starting to come out of the coldest of air but again another system where we need to see if any frozen precip happens before the warmth takes over the local area. Way too soon but keeps us busy on the forum.
Trev great call for today and the Euro no doubt nailed the sunny sky today. I missed this forecast but overall in the past 20 years I have hit enough of this pattern so once in awhile you will miss one.
Thanks Tim! Happy Thanksgiving to you as well!
Other than some pesky low clouds in my Athens college stomping grounds, not a cloud in sight.
Re: November 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 23, 2023 2:03 pm
by MVWxObserver
Hi Les,
The Lions going to have to rally back in the 2nd half!!
Currently 53 here in G'ville.
Re: November 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 23, 2023 2:04 pm
by tron777
MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2023 2:03 pm
Hi Les,
The Lions going to have to rally back in the 2nd half!!
Currently 53 here in G'ville.
Eric it is disgusting!
Re: November 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 23, 2023 2:06 pm
by MVWxObserver
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2023 11:43 am
Good Morning Trev and Eric. Hope both of you have a wonderful Thanksgiving. Models are starting to show a system later next week and again when you get a pattern change models will catch up to us. The system next week is one I expect to happen quite often this winter and that is a southern plains storm forming in milder air and heading northeast. How deep the cold is locally will determine if we get any winter weather. Late next week we are starting to come out of the coldest of air but again another system where we need to see if any frozen precip happens before the warmth takes over the local area. Way too soon but keeps us busy on the forum.
Trev great call for today and the Euro no doubt nailed the sunny sky today. I missed this forecast but overall in the past 20 years I have hit enough of this pattern so once in awhile you will miss one.
The same to you, Tim!
Lions shockingly getting embarrassed via the 1st half!
Re: November 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 23, 2023 3:44 pm
by tron777
The usual Thanksgiving performance from Detroit. Ugh... it was awful! Not happy...
Anyway, back to the weather and that is something to be happy about. A nice Thanksgiving today for sure in the low 50s. I made it to 54 here.
Re: November 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 23, 2023 3:56 pm
by MVWxObserver
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2023 3:44 pm
The usual Thanksgiving performance from Detroit. Ugh... it was awful! Not happy...
Anyway, back to the weather and that is something to be happy about. A nice Thanksgiving today for sure in the low 50s. I made it to 54 here.
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2023 3:44 pm
The usual Thanksgiving performance from Detroit. Ugh... it was awful! Not happy...
Anyway, back to the weather and that is something to be happy about. A nice Thanksgiving today for sure in the low 50s. I made it to 54 here.
Amen on the wx, Bro!
Aggravating cheddar heads!
Currently 54 here in G'ville.
Not really aggravating cheddar heads... The Lions defense was horrible plus for the 2nd week in a row, Goff cannot hold on to the ball. He fumbled 3 times!!! Last week, we got lucky and came back against the Bears and won. This week, it bit us in the ass and rightfully so. The Lions MUST clean this up or they won't make it out of the first round in the play offs.
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2023 3:44 pm
The usual Thanksgiving performance from Detroit. Ugh... it was awful! Not happy...
Anyway, back to the weather and that is something to be happy about. A nice Thanksgiving today for sure in the low 50s. I made it to 54 here.
Amen on the wx, Bro!
Aggravating cheddar heads!
Currently 54 here in G'ville.
Not really aggravating cheddar heads... The Lions defense was horrible plus for the 2nd week in a row, Goff cannot hold on to the ball. He fumbled 3 times!!! Last week, we got lucky and came back against the Bears and won. This week, it bit us in the ass and rightfully so. The Lions MUST clean this up or they won't make it out of the first round in the play offs.
I hear ya, Bro!
Yes, prayerfully they can bounce back next week !
Re: November 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 23, 2023 10:59 pm
by Trevor
Some CAA snow showers continue to show up for Sunday night and Monday morning. Could be some light dustings around as we usher in some cold air.
Re: November 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 23, 2023 11:03 pm
by MVWxObserver
CVG and DAY both reached 53 and CMH 50 on Turkey Day.
Re: November 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Nov 24, 2023 7:50 am
by tpweather
Good Morning and a crisp morning with some frost around. The only item I see will be the chance of frz/rain or frz/drizzle Sunday morning. This was always a very low threat and not throwing out completely but models are showing the incoming system a tad slower which means precip may not get in here until later Sunday and of course by then temps well above 32 and just a nice cold rain. Cold air will sweep in behind this system and expect some snow showers Monday and it will no doubt look and feel like winter.
Later in the week more precip will enter the picture and again how quickly it heads northeast will determine if any winter type precip is involved. This will be forerunner for a milder period but how long and how mild will we get. Models continue to keep the AO negative and NAO also negative with a nice blocking sign in Greenland. At the same time it looks like a ridge that forms in Alaska breaks down. The STJ looks busy as well this should keeps things rather busy.
Re: November 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Nov 24, 2023 7:58 am
by tron777
Good morning all! 34 here this morning and at CVG. As Tim mentioned a nice frosty morning out there. Highs in the 40s with lows in the 20s today and tomorrow. Then, I still believe it is mainly a cold rain for Sunday. I think the precip is delayed a bit so all liquid is what I expect for us locally on Sunday. We could end the event as a few snow showers as Trev mentioned. I don't really expect road problems as the ground is warm still. I suppose as a CYA post, watch for elevated roadways and bridges if you see a heavier snow shower occur but otherwise it really should not be a big deal for us locally.
After that, we are cold and dry to end November. Highs in the 30s Mon and probably Tues with lows deep into the 20s. We will moderate back into the 40s for highs by Wed and Thurs as we close out the month.
Re: November 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Nov 24, 2023 8:35 am
by Trevor
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 24, 2023 7:58 am
Good morning all! 34 here this morning and at CVG. As Tim mentioned a nice frosty morning out there. Highs in the 40s with lows in the 20s today and tomorrow. Then, I still believe it is mainly a cold rain for Sunday. I think the precip is delayed a bit so all liquid is what I expect for us locally on Sunday. We could end the event as a few snow showers as Trev mentioned. I don't really expect road problems as the ground is warm still. I suppose as a CYA post, watch for elevated roadways and bridges if you see a heavier snow shower occur but otherwise it really should not be a big deal for us locally.
After that, we are cold and dry to end November. Highs in the 30s Mon and probably Tues with lows deep into the 20s. We will moderate back into the 40s for highs by Wed and Thurs as we close out the month.
Yeah I have removed mention of zr from my forecast due to that very reason. As for Sunday night and Monday, some nice flurries and even some snow showers look to be flying for some. Like you said no real accumulation expected except for a dusting.
I went colder for Tuesday morning with a low of 18.
Edit: Added the GFS snowfall forecast (10:1). This model has been pretty steady on placement of the snow band (the 1-3" band I've been talking about for a few days) over central/northern IN and northern OH. This run also shows our dusting possibility down this way.
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 24, 2023 7:58 am
Good morning all! 34 here this morning and at CVG. As Tim mentioned a nice frosty morning out there. Highs in the 40s with lows in the 20s today and tomorrow. Then, I still believe it is mainly a cold rain for Sunday. I think the precip is delayed a bit so all liquid is what I expect for us locally on Sunday. We could end the event as a few snow showers as Trev mentioned. I don't really expect road problems as the ground is warm still. I suppose as a CYA post, watch for elevated roadways and bridges if you see a heavier snow shower occur but otherwise it really should not be a big deal for us locally.
After that, we are cold and dry to end November. Highs in the 30s Mon and probably Tues with lows deep into the 20s. We will moderate back into the 40s for highs by Wed and Thurs as we close out the month.
Yeah I have removed mention of zr from my forecast due to that very reason. As for Sunday night and Monday, some nice flurries and even some snow showers look to be flying for some. Like you said no real accumulation expected except for a dusting.
I went colder for Tuesday morning with a low of 18.
We are in good agreement my friend. We definitely could see some upper teens esp outside of the city.
Re: November 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Nov 24, 2023 8:45 am
by tpweather
Today is the last mowing of the season. Grass is not that high but mulch up the remaining leaves and just an overall shape up of the lawn. I may need to wear sweats today and that is unusual for me but there is a nice little bite to the air this morning.
More talk later on the upcoming pattern and finally have seen some -40's in northern Canada and getting close to -50 in parts of Siberia. So yes the cold is building but just a tad later than most years.
Re: November 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Nov 24, 2023 9:13 am
by Trevor
Re: November 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Nov 24, 2023 9:48 am
by tron777
Re: November 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Nov 24, 2023 12:10 pm
by tron777
12Z GFS really offers up no changes to my thinking for Sunday. Light rain ending as a few flakes Sun night into early Mon morning.
