Absolute Vorticity

Good morning all! ILN also has CVG in the upper 80s today. No complaints here if correct. Still expecting low 90s Wed and then for Thurs and Fri we are literally in hell with the mid 90s expected and heat indices of 100 to 105. Can we get a late day t-storm on Friday? It is sparse but we'll see if anything can form. Most will not see anything.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 22, 2023 7:43 am Good morning all! ILN also has CVG in the upper 80s today. No complaints here if correct. Still expecting low 90s Wed and then for Thurs and Fri we are literally in hell with the mid 90s expected and heat indices of 100 to 105. Can we get a late day t-storm on Friday? It is sparse but we'll see if anything can form. Most will not see anything.

They also have CVG at 98 on Thursday. I'm not buying a temperature that high. I may be wrong. We'll see.

dce wrote: ↑Tue Aug 22, 2023 9:43 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 22, 2023 7:43 am Good morning all! ILN also has CVG in the upper 80s today. No complaints here if correct. Still expecting low 90s Wed and then for Thurs and Fri we are literally in hell with the mid 90s expected and heat indices of 100 to 105. Can we get a late day t-storm on Friday? It is sparse but we'll see if anything can form. Most will not see anything.

They also have CVG at 98 on Thursday. I'm not buying a temperature that high. I may be wrong. We'll see.

Same. I've been going with the mid 90s myself.

So here is my two cents. I agree with you both that I think the GFS is waaay out to lunch with their 103 CVG high on Thursday. My main reasoning is the dewpoints. If the GFS verifies it has much drier dews in the low-mid 60s whereas the more modest NAM has 95 but with mid 70 dewpoints. Currently the models are too dry with low-mid 60 dewpoints forecast now while the real dewpoint is 69. So I would go with the moister and more modest NAM forecast high for Thursday. Still gonna be hell with the heat index, but I doubt we will see actual air temps in the low 100s the GFS is advertising.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 22, 2023 1:06 pm So here is my two cents. I agree with you both that I think the GFS is waaay out to lunch with their 103 CVG high on Thursday. My main reasoning is the dewpoints. If the GFS verifies it has much drier dews in the low-mid 60s whereas the more modest NAM has 95 but with mid 70 dewpoints. Currently the models are too dry with low-mid 60 dewpoints forecast now while the real dewpoint is 69. So I would go with the moister and more modest NAM forecast high for Thursday. Still gonna be hell with the heat index, but I doubt we will see actual air temps in the low 100s the GFS is advertising.

Great post Mike! That has been the GFS's problem all along. It cannot get the moisture level in the atmosphere correct. 95 for Thurs is a great call. Friday too unless a t-storm or clouds spoils it. Still going to be hot regardless. 85 / 69 at CVG so far today. Can we avoid the 90s at least for today? We'll know in about 3 1/2 hours from now.

81/62 at KDAY. What a way to run a heat wave.

CVG is at 89 with a dew of 63 as of 3pm. 90 is definitely within reach down here. The drop in the dews today is very much appreciated.

Good Afternoon and had a nice day of golf. Just enough breeze to make it bearable. Some great posts guys and I agree that gfs is out to lunch this summer with temps. Couple of weeks ago I saw highs in the 105-110 range. Really that is terrible and sure that is the time of year you could see those temps but we were not in a extreme drought by any means. I have been about a degree too low the past few days but not off 10-15 degrees. The next 3 days will be hot and again not much in the way of heat this year so it takes a few days for the body to adjust. The good thing is this is a not a heat wave but a normal period of heat we usually get in the summer months. The grass still okay but there are signs in certain areas that you see that different shade.

Columbus will probably stay in the low 80's today. Just getting a tad east of the heat ridge and temps are nice. This will happen to many of us this weekend. Wausau has a heat advisory on Wednesday with a temp in the low 90's but by the weekend back in the upper 40's for lows. Do we call this a heat wave for that area.

As of 4pm, CVG is still stuck at 89. Right after that, the site has been holding at 89.6 so I would assume 90 will be the high on the 5pm climate report. I'll check it later this evening for verification or tomorrow.

CVG did hit 90 per the 5pm climate report.

CVG reached 90 and both DAY / CMH 84 for today.

Good Morning and again off by 1 degree even though folks who know me say I have been off a long time. Trying for 93 today. Rain chances and yes a couple of chances starting Thursday and being on the eastern end of a ridge I thought we may end up with some showers especially the further east you live. That could happen Thursday morning but is not set in stone. Then with the front later Friday I would expect some storms to fire but again not everyone will get hit. Going with 94 both Thursday and Friday but if the showers come in Thursday morning that may be stretching the high for the day. Friday ahead of the cold front may well end up being the hottest day of this heat spell.

Good morning all! Great post from Tim this morning and the only thing I have to add is that there will be a chance for storms dropping in from the north this afternoon, but they will fall apart before reaching Cincinnati. I-70 Crew will have the best chance with what little bit of coverage that there is.

Thurs will offer up a couple of chances, morning and late day but again the coverage is low. Same deal for Fri and Sat morning. On Sat the upper 80s with decreasing humidity and by Sunday we are good to go near 80. Looking like on avg the lower 80s for next week. Overall, a few rain chances but the coverage is spotty.

Good afternoon folks! Sorry for the lack of posts as of late. Work is kicking my ass plus life right now is busy. It is what it is. I'll post when I can post. Anyway 87 as of 1pm at CVG so 90+ is a sure bet. Dews continue to rise (68 as of 1pm at CVG) and they will settle into the 70s by tonight and tomorrow. Thurs and Fri still look very hot and humid. I still like the mid 90s for those two days. Only spoiler would be clouds and / or a t-storm but again, the coverage IMO is low. Good luck!

Unless the tropics have a say, we should get back to our regularly scheduled +PNA pattern (Ridge West, trough East) in just a few more days from now. I don't have much else to report at this point. It's a pretty straight forward forecast.

BG from earlier today:

91 as of 3pm at CVG.

Lake Effect Rain.

CVG reached 93, DAY 90 and CMH 88 today.

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Love the sound of thunder and rain hitting the roof. When you get these strong ridges in the summer and disturbance on the eastern edge you can have some nice storms that move northeast to south/southwest as they try and find more heat. That is exactly what is happening this morning. So far locally we are on the edge and hopefully this expands enough this morning to give most folks some needed rain and even Bgoney might get in on the action. Once this passes this morning another hot and humid day and still going with 94 but the dew point will be in the 70's compared to the 60's yesterday the heat index will be awful this afternoon. Much cooler weather heading in over the weekend so just 2 more days of the heat spell

Noisy here this morning too. Rain has not yet made it into my hood but it's close. Hope to get a good soaking. I know it is weakening now though. Some folks North and NE / East of town got 1-2" out of the deal! Much needed rain indeed. Hope you scored Bgoney!!! Let's see how much the rain hampers high temps today. I still like 94 or 95. I don't think CVG will hit 97. I expect 94-95 tomorrow also. U80s maybe 90 Saturday then its over!!! More t-storm chances as well with another possibility tomorrow afternoon and early Sat.

Hi tpweather, I’m new and trying to learn. What is the disturbance on the eastern edge? A map I looked at seemed like the low pressure boundary was up near Pennsylvania, is that causing this? It does seem rare to see northeast to southwest movement - is there some sort of lull in the area of the jet stream we are in to allow this?

Sorry if the questions seem dumb or the wording doesn’t make sense - just learning!