Absolute Vorticity

Good morning and I think that everyone is fair game for winds gusting between 40-60 mph on Thursday. Hopefully everyone's power will stay on since isolated power outages are always possible when we get winds like this. The good news is that the ground is not saturated so that lessens the chances of trees being uprooted. Still though, any older or unhealthy trees are fair game for limbs and branches to get knocked down. This is really our big weather story right now as Bgoney mentioned. The Fri night into early Sat system is not very impressive at all and we'll be lucky to see much precip from that. Then we warm up and get rained on a couple more times next week. An early look at V-day is for mild weather and rain moving in late in the day.

6Z HRRR has 850 MB winds in excess of 80 knots Thurs morning. If any of that gets pushed down to the surface, you're talking 65+ mph easily! Let's hope that isn't the case. The hi-res NAM supports this also.

12Z NAM has 850 MB winds around 75 knots. 925 MB winds are around 56 knots. This means that wind gusts in the 60-65 mph range are possible should the winds aloft make it down to the surface. Rainfall wise not much. 0.20" for CVG and that counts anything today thru tomorrow.

12Z HRRR is a tad better keeping most folks in the 50-55 mph range.

Dropped to 19 in Springfield this AM, 22 at Wright Patt and 27 in my hood.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 08, 2023 10:23 am Dropped to 19 in Springfield this AM, 22 at Wright Patt and 27 in my hood.

Actually had to scrape the windshield this morning, a rare occurrence

WindTalk! from BG from earlier this morning.

Good Afternoon and expect a windy day on Thursday and will see how much of the stronger winds head to the surface. Looks like I am heading straight into the nasty weather this weekend in Greenville and if models are correct some snow is possible even where I live just south of downtown Greenville. No doubt some snow north of there as you pick up the higher elevations between Greenville and Asheville. Looks like a nighttime event and if so hopefully I can take a pic of any snow that has fallen overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning. Will be there 48 months this June and has only snowed twice since I have been there and one time was a dusting and the other time I was up here and they got a few inches one morning, Of course that will change next year when they move to Wisconsin.

The pattern going forward definitely is looking very active. Unfortunately as it stands right now, these manly looks like rain and wind producers perhaps ending as some snow showers on the back end. Nothing terribly exciting for our local area in terms of breaking out the shovels or plows. If anything changes, of course we will talk about it on here immediately! We may honestly have to wait until very late this month or even March for action on the wintry side. Wish I had better news but at the same time, I try and always give it to you straight.

MJO modeling tries to get us into Phase 7 sometime between the 16-20th. Euro even has Phase 8 thereafter. We are also monitoring the PV to see how much it weakens if not splits. All of this will have impacts for the late winter / early spring time period. We just don't yet know what those impacts will be. You guys know I am one of the biggest snow lovers out there and this is our hope for a late season event to save us from a lackluster snowfall season. We are just going to have to be patient a couple more weeks to see where things stand. Until then, we have numerous rain and wind makers to track which will have to satisfy the snow lover in you until the cold air can get more involved.

Les we seem to always get a system during Presidents Day Weekend. I can remember some nice snowfall over the years during that time. Maybe just maybe we can get lucky an have a nice system roll through here in about 10 days. I will be back on the 21st of 22nd but would love to see a snowstorm that weekend even if I am not in town.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Feb 08, 2023 2:52 pm Les we seem to always get a system during Presidents Day Weekend. I can remember some nice snowfall over the years during that time. Maybe just maybe we can get lucky an have a nice system roll through here in about 10 days. I will be back on the 21st of 22nd but would love to see a snowstorm that weekend even if I am not in town.

I agree Tim! V-day, and Pres. Day both seem to have active weather. This year it looks like a rain maker moving in late on V-day. For the period leading up to Pres. Day, right now, it looks like a rain ending as snow shower type system or cold and dry behind said system. Hopefully modeling changes for the better between now and then for Pres Day anyway.

Normal highs and lows creeping up through mid month



Current temps

From Feb 21-28th we gain 3 more degrees for a normal high of 48 by months end. Those climate normals really explode in March. Normal high is 48 on 3/1 and shoots all the way up to 60 by 3/31! Hopefully for us snow lovers we'll have something to talk about before the season is over. I am still hopeful as previously discussed.

I just received a text from Duke stating..."A strong line of storms is forecast overnight accompanied by high winds that will persist through much of Thu. Feb 9. Widespread outages are possible. Crews are ready to respond. Visit our storm center at duk.us/37 for ways to prepare".

Geez, first time Duke ever sent out these kind of messages!

I don't see any t-storms but some of the showers will allow the higher winds to mix down to the surface. The rainfall amounts aren't impressive at all. 0.10-0.20" from this evening thru tomorrow. The wind itself will again be the major story tomorrow with this system. The highest winds look to be in that 6-10am range where 50-60 mph gusts are possible. I think as we head thru the afternoon winds will relax a bit and only gust to 40-50 mph after that. By the time we get towards tomorrow night, the 40 mph gusts will further diminish as the night wears on. The positives: No leaves on the trees and we haven't had excessive rainfall to cause trees to uproot.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 08, 2023 4:22 pm I don't see any t-storms but some of the showers will allow the higher winds to mix down to the surface. The rainfall amounts aren't impressive at all. 0.10-0.20" from this evening thru tomorrow. The wind itself will again be the major story tomorrow with this system. The highest winds look to be in that 6-10am range where 50-60 mph gusts are possible. I think as we head thru the afternoon winds will relax a bit and only gust to 40-50 mph after that. By the time we get towards tomorrow night, the 40 mph gusts will further diminish as the night wears on. The positives: No leaves on the trees and we haven't had excessive rainfall to cause trees to uproot.

Also, it will be much warmer compared to the Christmas wind event where it was below 0.

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Feb 08, 2023 4:31 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 08, 2023 4:22 pm I don't see any t-storms but some of the showers will allow the higher winds to mix down to the surface. The rainfall amounts aren't impressive at all. 0.10-0.20" from this evening thru tomorrow. The wind itself will again be the major story tomorrow with this system. The highest winds look to be in that 6-10am range where 50-60 mph gusts are possible. I think as we head thru the afternoon winds will relax a bit and only gust to 40-50 mph after that. By the time we get towards tomorrow night, the 40 mph gusts will further diminish as the night wears on. The positives: No leaves on the trees and we haven't had excessive rainfall to cause trees to uproot.

Also, it will be much warmer compared to the Christmas wind event where it was below 0.

True that Joe. We'll be in the low 60s until the front passes then drop into the 40s in the afternoon.

Not putting my curbside cart out for Fri AM pickup until 11 o'clock or 11:30 Thurs night due to the winds and gusts subsiding more into those early night hours.

My Dad and I secured our white picket fence gate late this afternoon to the main fence with a couple bungee cords.

Other than that don't have any other loose items minus my rain gauge which is mounted with a couple of screws near the driveway on a post of the picket fence.

Currently 45 here in G'ville and progged to hold steady there into part of the early Thurs AM hours.

Rainfall amounts via ILN for here in Darke Co e.g.

Tonight

Showers, mainly before 4am. Temperature rising to around 53 by 5am. Southeast wind 7 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Thursday

Showers, mainly before noon. Temperature rising to near 57 by 10am, then falling to around 46 during the remainder of the day. Windy, with a south wind 22 to 31 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

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Well, I just saw Trevor's post on FB about the high wind warning. That is just one county away from me. Been busy all afternoon working on tax stuff and just zoned out on the weather. Took my recycles out and it was quite pleasant out there. Going to go out and move my truck in a bit.

National rain/snow radar shot Feb 8 and zero snow showing up in the US

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Bgoney that map looks like mid-late March and my guess once we get to mid-late March we will see a map that looks like early-mid Feb. Mother Nature will once again balance things out as usual.

The heavier rains stayed to the west and northwest overnight as Indy nearing 1 1/4. I have 0.11 inches. The street cleaners have been down the street a couple of times this week and really need one good soaking to get all the salt and other junk off the streets. City does a great job here with most public services and though we are usually last to get salt trucks back here I do live at the end of a big subdivision.