January 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

AFD from the boys for Thurs and Fri:

Closed southern stream mid level low to open up and track
across the region Thursday. Associated surface low pressure to
eject northeast across Indiana and Ohio Thursday. Some
uncertainty on the exact track of the low but most likely track
is across West Central Ohio, which places ILN/s southeast
counties in the warm sector for a period Thursday afternoon.

If enough instability develops, cannot rule out a few strong storms
across the southeast, with favorable shear in place. Marginal
elevated instability may become surface based mid afternoon Thursday
into early evening over the southeast, when a few strong storms
could produce damaging winds and locally heavy rain. Will continue
to mention this potential in the HWO.

Showers to continue in the wake of the surface cold front with mid
level trof over the area as northern stream energy drops southeast
into the Ohio Valley. Rain showers to mix with and change to snow
shower overnight Thursday. Snow showers to continue Friday in CAA
pattern with favorable flow coming off Lake Michigan. Expect little
diurnal rise of temperatures Friday. Have trended temperatures
colder than NBM and therefore adjusted p-type to more snow Friday.

GFS ensemble probability in excess of an inch very low across the
north and 60-70 percent on the Euro ensemble. Have accumulation
generally an inch or less. across the area with the highest totals
over West Central Ohio.

[tron777]

I'm getting ready after I am done working here in a bit to head over to the new Turfway Park Racing and Gaming in Florence. The folks and I are going to check it out since we've never been before since the re-modeling was done.

[tpweather]

I'm getting ready after I am done working here in a bit to head over to the new Turfway Park Racing and Gaming in Florence. The folks and I are going to check it out since we've never been before since the re-modeling was done.

I have not been there but here its really crowded. Not sure if that holds true on a Tuesday evening. Have fun Les

[tron777]

I'm getting ready after I am done working here in a bit to head over to the new Turfway Park Racing and Gaming in Florence. The folks and I are going to check it out since we've never been before since the re-modeling was done.

I have not been there but here its really crowded. Not sure if that holds true on a Tuesday evening. Have fun Les

Thanks Tim! I was afraid of that too, so trying it early in the week as opposed to later in the week when you know it would be packed.

[tron777]

Not much change for us from the 18Z GFS for the next system. Decent run though snow wise for the areas we've already highlighted: LES Belts, Apps, etc.

[Bgoney]

10jan23_dec22t.png

[Bgoney]

EU 500MB evolution, temp regime and PACjet. It's going to take time but hopefully it's worth the wait. Notice the jet splits around the 18/19/20. A piece into BC and another running up into the OH/Tenn valleys, providing at least one more wet period during and after that time with the above normal temps still in place

ecmwf_z500a_namer_fh15-240.gif

8

ecmwf_T2m_namer_fh15-240.gif

ecmwf_uv250_namer_fh15-240.gif

[Bgoney]

ecmwf_z500a_namer_fh15-240.gif

ecmwf_T2m_namer_fh15-240.gif

[tpweather]

Good news as northern Canada getting cold once again. Of course cold is relative but latest temp I found in north central is -46 so cold is slowly working its way to this side of the planet. That cold will continue to cover more area over the next week or so and then hopefully we can start to see some head towards us later next week and the following week.

[MVWxObserver]

I have an uncle from here in Greenville who is in serious condition at a Dayton hospital with a brain bleed.

https://absolutevorticity.com/viewtopic ... 0&start=50

Currently 34 here in G'ville and progged for around 33 Wed morning.

[Bgoney]

Overnight Oz has no changes in the forecast from yesterday. Isolated light rain chance today in the 50s, upper 50s tomorrow with rain and thunder and breezy .50-1.0" . 850 winds near 50 mph late morning Thursday so heavier showers could be gusty, then a wintry day Friday with vigorous snow showers at times, inch or less.

[Bgoney]

Road trip


https://snowbrains.com/mammoth-mountain ... -on-earth/

[Bgoney]

Here's some temp observations of the Siberian cold. In Celsius

image-26.png

[tpweather]

Bgoney sounds like a road trip lol. Forecast looks good over the next few days and then a normal January weekend in store as I will be watching tons of football once again. Colder air continues to flow into northern Canada with the lowest temp at -52 . Alaska and we talk about how many times when they get cold we get mild and vice versa but this season Alaska has been rather mild for them and near normal to slightly above normal for many areas. More later today as finishing painting the kitchen.

Great map Bgoney and widespread cold and we just need to see if some of that can works its way to North America. We have had such a nice January Thaw and when this happens it usually means Mother Nature is balancing things out and she is doing a great job in Siberia. I do hear its beautiful there in mid-July though

[tron777]

Good morning! Wonderful posts from last evening and this morning guys! Hey Tim... a side note, Turfway was clean, very spacious, good food (drink and food prices were high but that is true everywhere lol) and I even won $11. Better then a zero® as my Grandma used to say.

Ok, back to weather here folks and the SPC has a marginal risk for our S counties south of the Cincy Metro area. So keep that in mind for tomorrow. The forecast has been well covered for this next system so I will switch gears to next week. Very wet with daily rain chances and mild conditions. Localized flooding concerns are possible depending on how much rain falls over the next week to 10 days. Someone in the OV could see up to 4" of rain should the cards fall just right. Nothing to be alarmed about yet, but I wanted to bring it up since we've got cutter after cutter after cutter until we get past NEXT weekend.

In the extended range, not much to add other then what we've already talked about. Nice +PNA pattern coming with the SE ridge off the Coast. We will have to wait and see how things line up. OP GFS finally looking much colder in it's fantasy range so it is finally beginning to see the storyline that the EPS and GEFS has been painting for days now.

[Bgoney]

Lol Tim, as much as i hate painting , I would gladly switch honey-do chores for the day. Mine is cleaning out the bathroom sink , which can be quite the eye opener of disgust. Probably the one time wearing a mask is going to benefit me.

[tron777]

Lol Tim, as much as i hate painting , I would gladly switch honey-do chores for the day. Mine is cleaning out the bathroom sink , which can be quite the eye opener of disgust. Probably the one time wearing a mask is going to benefit me.

Yeah... I'd have to vote for painting too!

[Bgoney]

Great lakes will be open for business for quite awhile when Arctic air returns at some point. 3.1% total ice coverage, brutal

glsea_cur.png

[winterstormjoe]

Thanks Bgoney, this will be my new wall paper

[tron777]

Great lakes will be open for business for quite awhile when Arctic air returns at some point. 3.1% total ice coverage, brutal

Agreed! What little ice that was there in the Western Basin of Lake Erie (West of the islands) is going to be completely gone here shortly with the mild and wet pattern. Nothing melts ice faster then rain.

[tron777]

Thanks Bgoney, this will be my new wall paper

INCREDIBLE!

[tron777]

41 / 32 at CVG as of 9am so we still have a little more saturating to do. Sprinkles / drizzle will be possible today as time goes on. Still awaiting the better rains / t-storms for the day tomorrow. First in the morning, then again with the front midday to early afternoon. Then temps fall.

[tron777]

BG StormTalk!

[tron777]

Day 3 now in a row with the SOI being in the positive single digits per the Aussies.


https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

[tron777]

So far, 12z guidance that I have looked at tracks the low tomorrow right up the river and over us. If correct, any strong to severe storms would be SE of I-71 on Thurs and mainly in our KY counties if it were to occur. Severe threat to me is low end. Not zero, but low chances. Then for Friday, there looks to be a plume of LES off of Lake Michigan. A lot of the hi-res guidance thus far that I have looked at keeps it over towards IND and LOU. Our SW counties would stand the best chance at that. Snow showers for everyone though of course will be occurring but a small band of locally "enhanced" snow if you will is possible where that band sets up. Again... with temps being just above the freezing mark, we are only looking at grassy accum / car topper kind of thing and that is only if, it comes down heavy enough. As soon as it stops, it will probably melt due to the warm ground.