December 2022 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Les getting this kind of pattern anytime is great but love it this time of year. How many years have we seen the best wintertime conditions arrive in February. Once you get into mid-Feb the days are getting longer and average temps are rising so most of the time when you do get snow it tends to melt in a few days. I love to see snow on the ground for say 2-3 weeks at a time and though it can hamper travel around the holidays I still love the active weather this time of year. I am heading to Greenville probably on the 27th but that also depends on weather conditions. Probably stay for a week and with this kind of pattern you can get snow down there as well.

[tron777]

Les getting this kind of pattern anytime is great but love it this time of year. How many years have we seen the best wintertime conditions arrive in February. Once you get into mid-Feb the days are getting longer and average temps are rising so most of the time when you do get snow it tends to melt in a few days. I love to see snow on the ground for say 2-3 weeks at a time and though it can hamper travel around the holidays I still love the active weather this time of year. I am heading to Greenville probably on the 27th but that also depends on weather conditions. Probably stay for a week and with this kind of pattern you can get snow down there as well.

Safe travels for sure Tim! Hopefully you'll have good traveling weather, then get some snow down there. Then get back here so you can bring more snow with you back to us!

All kidding aside.... Our Decembers have been so wretched for so long, it'll be refreshing to have cold air and snow chances around like the good ole days!

[tron777]

[tron777]

12Z NAM has 1.54" of rain at CVG with this next system. Most folks look to fall within that 1-2" range it appears. Some will see less, others more, but I think most folks are going to fall within that range.

[tron777]

12Z GFS has come down to 0.95" for CVG and I think it's due to a little quicker speed with the entire system. The arrival time and departure are a bit faster on this run.

[tpweather]

12Z NAM has 1.54" of rain at CVG with this next system. Most folks look to fall within that 1-2" range it appears. Some will see less, others more, but I think most folks are going to fall within that range.

Finally got the most important items I need from Costco and that is 3 pair of reading glasses so I can read these darn models and of course the chicken which is still a wonderful price. Les I understand both models and what they see and though I am still going .5-1 I believe the higher total is closer to be correct and very possible we go over the 1 inch mark. Speed is key and the slower the more rainfall heading this way. Time to look at the noon models as these new glasses are wonderful.

[tron777]

12Z NAM has 1.54" of rain at CVG with this next system. Most folks look to fall within that 1-2" range it appears. Some will see less, others more, but I think most folks are going to fall within that range.

Finally got the most important items I need from Costco and that is 3 pair of reading glasses so I can read these darn models and of course the chicken which is still a wonderful price. Les I understand both models and what they see and though I am still going .5-1 I believe the higher total is closer to be correct and very possible we go over the 1 inch mark. Speed is key and the slower the more rainfall heading this way. Time to look at the noon models as these new glasses are wonderful.

Awesome! You are ready for winter weather tracking next week! I took the rest of the day off work, have some business to attend too here shortly, but hope to be back later this afternoon to talk more weather with you guys. GFS is shearing that weak wave out for the 20th so nothing happens on this run with that. CMC does the same. Then as we approach Christmas, the CMC has the energy coming out in multiple pieces which is a new solution being shown today. The GFS is showing a big dog since we get the energy to phase from the polar and subtropical jets. For our liking, that process happens a little too early so we get both rain and snow out of it. Check out that 1070 High coming in also behind that system. Where have we seen that before? The model mayhem will continue as most folks know for sometime to come. Going to be some fun and interesting solutions!

[dce]

I can't recall seeing a map quite this cold before. I think they ran out of colors. Courtesy of the CB afternoon update.

[tpweather]

I can't recall seeing a map quite this cold before. I think they ran out of colors. Courtesy of the CB afternoon update.

That is fun to see and somewhere another big storm is brewing late next week

[tron777]

I can't recall seeing a map quite this cold before. I think they ran out of colors. Courtesy of the CB afternoon update.

That's likely way overdone but pretty awesome to see at the same time. 30 degree below normal temps, now that I could see happening but not 50.

[tpweather]

I can't recall seeing a map quite this cold before. I think they ran out of colors. Courtesy of the CB afternoon update.

That's likely way overdone but pretty awesome to see at the same time. 30 degree below normal temps, now that I could see happening but not 50.

Even in those cold winters of 76/77 and 77/78 you never saw 50 degrees below normal. Yes once in awhile 35 degrees below normal for a high and 40 degrees below normal for a low but those lows at night came with deep snow cover as well. Even getting to 30 below is not easy so just give a nice 10-20 degrees below normal but more snow and I will be happy.

[young pup]

Looked at the 12z finally maybe some snow. Guess I better get the salt spreader into the one truck tomorrow. I see the cold too and this will definitely be a shock to everyone's system that is for sure.

[tron777]

This is about as strong of a signal for a major storm as we near Christmas that you'll ever see in an Ensemble Mean for 9-10 Days out. See the EPS and GEFS Loops below. Note the insane blocking over AK (massive -EPO) which amplifies and causes the PV to drop in and say hello. Cross polar flow also evident from Siberia. We need to watch the ridging near the West Coast for it's position and amplification (strength) which will determine where the downstream trough goes as well as it's orientation and amplification. The players are 100% on the field for a monster winter storm nearing Christmas. Is it a cutter, an Apps Runner, or an East Coast Low? All options are obviously on the table at this distance.

EPS.gif

GEFS.gif

[tron777]

Hey Tim... check this out! Look at how cold it's been in Siberia where our cold air will be coming from. I think you mentioned -80 the other day?

[tpweather]

Les does not look much better than those maps. When I see a big temperature difference a storm is usually nearby and when I saw the predicted temps later next week this could be a major storm with all types of precip. Way to early but show me this same map 5 days from today and we are cooking with grease. Not giving up early next week as well and models tend to have problems with this period after the first front comes through. Does not look to be a major system but it could be a little appetizer before the main course happens near Christmas.

[dce]

I can't recall seeing a map quite this cold before. I think they ran out of colors. Courtesy of the CB afternoon update.

That's likely way overdone but pretty awesome to see at the same time. 30 degree below normal temps, now that I could see happening but not 50.

It's wild! That's for sure. Just goes to show the magnitude of what's coming. Even if we are only 30-40 below for 5 days it will be very brutal. If that map was to verify this nation would see all kinds of issues from that kind of wide spread cold. Like Tim said, just cold enough for some snow is all we really want and need, but there is the potential for widespread issues though.

[tpweather]

Hey Tim... check this out! Look at how cold it's been in Siberia where our cold air will be coming from. I think you mentioned -80 the other day?

Hey Les and some of the models were showing -100 or below for that area and I said I am not going that cold but -80 imo was in the cards. To get some of that air to cross the poles and with the amount of snow and still cold in Canada plus the new snow in the northern plains we are going to get cold. How cold will be determined by many factors with one of those snow on the ground. I mentioned yesterday I expect 2 storm where we get at least 2 inches and I thought getting below 0 looked really good with the upcoming pattern. Again I believe the models are getting colder as we get closer and I agree 100p/c Once you get this kind of cold in and if you have a decent snow cover it takes awhile longer to get out of the pattern and that is why I thought a good 3-4 weeks is possible for the new pattern. That does not mean we are below normal every day but I would say a good 75-80p/c of the time should be below normal with temps. One other thing is the models are getting somewhat wetter to as we get closer in time. Models just have a hard time with this kind of cold outbreak.

[tron777]

Les does not look much better than those maps. When I see a big temperature difference a storm is usually nearby and when I saw the predicted temps later next week this could be a major storm with all types of precip. Way to early but show me this same map 5 days from today and we are cooking with grease. Not giving up early next week as well and models tend to have problems with this period after the first front comes through. Does not look to be a major system but it could be a little appetizer before the main course happens near Christmas.

I tossed the OP Euro. No way in hell Southern California gets down to 20 degrees at the coast as in San Fran. It literally drops the PV over the west with an historical trough so we bake for Christmas. EPS posted above, disagrees with it and so can we.

With regards to that weak wave early next week... it might shear out leaving more room for the bigger one as we approach Christmas. I'm not sold either way just discussing that possibility. I don't think that is a major system for us anyway but if the energy doesn't shear out too badly then some light snow would be possible.

[tron777]

I can't recall seeing a map quite this cold before. I think they ran out of colors. Courtesy of the CB afternoon update.

That's likely way overdone but pretty awesome to see at the same time. 30 degree below normal temps, now that I could see happening but not 50.

It's wild! That's for sure. Just goes to show the magnitude of what's coming. Even if we are only 30-40 below for 5 days it will be very brutal. If that map was to verify this nation would see all kinds of issues from that kind of wide spread cold. Like Tim said, just cold enough for some snow is all we really want and need, but there is the potential for widespread issues though.

I think it's going to depend on if the big dog forms near Christmas time. I posted some examples the other day of big storms that have occurred in the past and a major arctic outbreak of cold air that came in behind it. December 1989, and January 1994 are the two most famous examples for Cincinnati that I can remember. The monster Pre-Christmas of 2004 storm got very cold right afterwards but the cold didn't stick around as long as it did in 89 and 94.

[tpweather]

No doubt we will be busy over the next 2 weeks. Models will still change over each system and not worried about that but the cold seems certain with the blocking. Have a nice ridge just off the west coast is one you love to see. Having it to far inland is better for the east coast folks. One place you want to see with above normal temps over this time period is Maine.

[tron777]

Hey Tim... check this out! Look at how cold it's been in Siberia where our cold air will be coming from. I think you mentioned -80 the other day?

Hey Les and some of the models were showing -100 or below for that area and I said I am not going that cold but -80 imo was in the cards. To get some of that air to cross the poles and with the amount of snow and still cold in Canada plus the new snow in the northern plains we are going to get cold. How cold will be determined by many factors with one of those snow on the ground. I mentioned yesterday I expect 2 storm where we get at least 2 inches and I thought getting below 0 looked really good with the upcoming pattern. Again I believe the models are getting colder as we get closer and I agree 100p/c Once you get this kind of cold in and if you have a decent snow cover it takes awhile longer to get out of the pattern and that is why I thought a good 3-4 weeks is possible for the new pattern. That does not mean we are below normal every day but I would say a good 75-80p/c of the time should be below normal with temps. One other thing is the models are getting somewhat wetter to as we get closer in time. Models just have a hard time with this kind of cold outbreak.

I strongly agree with this post Tim! In addition, this also tells us that the 1070 MB High we keep seeing on guidance every once and a while dropping into Montana is possible and may not be overdone by all that much.

[tron777]

No doubt we will be busy over the next 2 weeks. Models will still change over each system and not worried about that but the cold seems certain with the blocking. Have a nice ridge just off the west coast is one you love to see. Having it to far inland is better for the east coast folks. One place you want to see with above normal temps over this time period is Maine.

I really liked the West Coast ridging position too on the Ensembles today. Reminds me a lot of December 2010.

[AddisonJM]

Moved to FL a couple of years ago, came back to AV to talk about Christmas up home and had to re-register. It's like I never existed.

Being that I'll be home for Christmas (there's a song about that, I think), I have a vested interest in it not being 70 degrees again. So many possibilities as to how this plays out, but this is the most obvious setup for a blockbuster that we have seen in a while. I think it cuts, and rather dramatically, but Euro shows signs of wanting to develop a secondary low at 240 which might be of interest to us if it were to actually occur, and even the cutter offers some strong signs of fetch that definitely could have an impact down here with as cold and dry as the air behind the front is likely to be.

Again, and I can't emphasize this enough, 70 is unacceptable. Anything is better than 70.

[tpweather]

Moved to FL a couple of years ago, came back to AV to talk about Christmas up home and had to re-register. It's like I never existed.

Being that I'll be home for Christmas (there's a song about that, I think), I have a vested interest in it not being 70 degrees again. So many possibilities as to how this plays out, but this is the most obvious setup for a blockbuster that we have seen in a while. I think it cuts, and rather dramatically, but Euro shows signs of wanting to develop a secondary low at 240 which might be of interest to us if it were to actually occur, and even the cutter offers some strong signs of fetch that definitely could have an impact down here with as cold and dry as the air behind the front is likely to be.

Again, and I can't emphasize this enough, 70 is unacceptable. Anything is better than 70.

Wonderful post and I can see this cutting and that would no doubt warm us up for about 2 days but then watch out for this pattern. Many times we get very little in the way of snow with a cutter but with the amount of cold air coming in you can get a quick changeover to snow and really it can be one of those where it rains and then the cold rushes in so that turns the roads to ice and then snow on top. Not a forecast but I have seen this with this kind of cold. Many options and my guess those models will be going back and forth over the next week.

[tron777]

Hey Jacob! Welcome back! Glad you found us again. Our old forum died on us which is why everyone had to re-register. We lost everything and could not recover it. So we started from scratch again in late February of 2021. This new forum is much better so you should have a better experience now.