Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Wed Nov 16, 2022 1:02 pm**

I don't recall the last time I saw a 1060s high in west Canada. Usually these are seen in Siberia, Asia. Something is up!

gfs_mslpaNorm_namer_2.png

Posted: **Wed Nov 16, 2022 1:12 pm**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 1:02 pm I don't recall the last time I saw a 1060s high in west Canada. Usually these are seen in Siberia, Asia. Something is up!

gfs_mslpaNorm_namer_2.png

Great Post and years and years ago we saw more of these in western Canada but usually in December and January. I agree over the past 2-3 decades we very seldom see these. A couple of things is Siberia is not getting as cold as usual in November while much of Canada is colder compared to normal in many places. What this means in the longer term I am not sure and one thing is with that strong of high the cold air continues longer than normal this time of year further south since we have a highway connecting us at the moment.

I mentioned yesterday that the longer term forecasts in Siberia was for a big dip in temps but they have back off on that to a more normal type of cold there or even a tad above normal. Climate and how much is involved with models is always something that I have no ideal how much is thrown into those models.

Posted: **Wed Nov 16, 2022 1:14 pm**

I mentioned earlier that I really like the looks of the gfs and still believe its correct but the CMC is more in line with the Euro but colder. It wants the cold air to last a day longer and further south next week and this holds the system until Friday. Again a nice batch of rain followed by cold and some snow and it looks colder than the gfs next weekend or 240 hours out.

Posted: **Wed Nov 16, 2022 1:34 pm**

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 11:52 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 11:42 am 12Z GFS has rain for Thanksgiving and Black Friday ending as some snow Fri night. A large / slow moving storm system with a pretty good much needed soaking! Heaviest rains fall NW of the Cincy Metro per the usual trends.
Les the earlier gfs had the northern system taking over but this run really is close to how I see it playing out. Nice cold shot moves in but I still believe for a short time and we warm up nicely. The models will go back and forth probably until this weekend but this latest run to me looks correct and yes there will be some details that change but If I could paint a picture of how that system turns out the latest gfs would be rather close. This would probably give us a nice inch or so of rainfall and maybe another inch of snow as well. Many times when the cold digs into the central USA we would see another system a few days later that would bring some winter weather to us. This time though the coldest air digs further east so just expecting enough cold air to enter the system late and then stick around for the weekend before we warm up

GEFS is SE of the OP GFS, stronger with the high over S Canada and better blocking. Low gets force south so still rain to snow but less rain and more snow. Not saying either solution is right, just discussing the different solutions being shown today. Then, you've got the CMC tracking the low just NW of us so it's even warmer then the GFS solution. Euro has been the slowest and warmest solution thus far. 12Z running now...

Posted: **Wed Nov 16, 2022 1:35 pm**

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 12:10 pm
MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 11:57 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 11:13 am A better precip type word for today is white rain!

I'll need a case of that white rain to spray on my front lawn to give that white Christmas look! Ha ha LOL!

I remember that shampoo as a kid.

Posted: **Wed Nov 16, 2022 1:38 pm**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 1:02 pm I don't recall the last time I saw a 1060s high in west Canada. Usually these are seen in Siberia, Asia. Something is up!

gfs_mslpaNorm_namer_2.png

GFS has been bouncing around with the intensity of the high over S Canada for the Thanksgiving time frame system / Weekend. I've seen it modeled from the upper 1030s-1050 MB basically. So if it's that strong at 1060 when it comes in, then the colder GFS solution and a 1050 high in S Canada would be the way to go with a rain to snow set up. How much of each depends on the strength of that high coming in and how much the storm track gets forced south.

Posted: **Wed Nov 16, 2022 1:44 pm**

Getting a heavy graupel shower now.

Posted: **Wed Nov 16, 2022 1:47 pm**

Euro is now the quickest of getting precip in here. The models are bouncing around quite a bit.

Posted: **Wed Nov 16, 2022 1:48 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 1:35 pm
winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 12:10 pm
MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 11:57 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 11:13 am A better precip type word for today is white rain!

I'll need a case of that white rain to spray on my front lawn to give that white Christmas look! Ha ha LOL!
I remember that shampoo as a kid.

I remember as well because the rich kids got the shampoo and we used a bar of soap

Posted: **Wed Nov 16, 2022 2:09 pm**

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 1:48 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 1:35 pm
winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 12:10 pm
MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 11:57 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 11:13 am A better precip type word for today is white rain!

I'll need a case of that white rain to spray on my front lawn to give that white Christmas look! Ha ha LOL!
I remember that shampoo as a kid.
I remember as well because the rich kids got the shampoo and we used a bar of soap

Tim, I'm back to the bar of soap as I have no hair left to shampoo.

Posted: **Wed Nov 16, 2022 2:12 pm**

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 2:09 pm
tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 1:48 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 1:35 pm
winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 12:10 pm
MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 11:57 am

I'll need a case of that white rain to spray on my front lawn to give that white Christmas look! Ha ha LOL!
I remember that shampoo as a kid.
I remember as well because the rich kids got the shampoo and we used a bar of soap
Tim, I'm back to the bar of soap as I have no hair left to shampoo.

Hey Joe, that is funny and of course I have hair but gray. Seems we can't win this youth game lol

Posted: **Wed Nov 16, 2022 2:19 pm**

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 1:47 pm Euro is now the quickest of getting precip in here. The models are bouncing around quite a bit.

It has the GFS timing now but still cranking that low up and really bombing it out over the Lakes and Canada. GFS is only 999 MB at its lowest point. So again... one sees some blocking the other model has no blocking at all. I actually favor the GFS or CMC models here and not as cranked up as the Euro. We talked about the NAO / AO potentially going negative for a time so if correct, the Euro solution wouldn't make much sense. If they do not go negative, the Euro would have a shot at being more correct.

Posted: **Wed Nov 16, 2022 2:28 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 2:19 pm
tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 1:47 pm Euro is now the quickest of getting precip in here. The models are bouncing around quite a bit.
It has the GFS timing now but still cranking that low up and really bombing it out over the Lakes and Canada. GFS is only 999 MB at its lowest point. So again... one sees some blocking the other model has no blocking at all. I actually favor the GFS or CMC models here and not as cranked up as the Euro. We talked about the NAO / AO potentially going negative for a time so if correct, the Euro solution wouldn't make much sense. If they do not go negative, the Euro would have a shot at being more correct.

Les I believe we are pinpointing the forecast and like you mention does the NAO/AO go negative for a short period of time. I still like how the gfs handles everything and I believe all 3 models show a nice shot of cold air behind the main system which can give us a period of snow but more in line of an inch or so. Then we stay cold next weekend before I believe is a really nice shot of milder air. Once I see more systems heading into the pacific northwest then I believe that will finally cut off the colder air from Canada but I got to say this will be a nice cold spell and one that is lasting longer than normal in mid-November. Timing is always key in the forecasts and another item is the strong cold air mass over Canada should help keep next weeks system further south as well. Something I am watching as well is how quickly does the precip get in here next week. I believe its Thanksgiving but if and a big if the preicp comes in say 12 hours earlier we could see a little front end winter precip but at the moment I have that happening at a very low outcome.

Posted: **Wed Nov 16, 2022 2:30 pm**

The 12Z 500 mb height in Anchorage of 577 dm was the 3rd highest for the month of November (00Z and 12Z on Nov 2, 2017 were higher). @Alaskanoaa

Posted: **Wed Nov 16, 2022 2:35 pm**

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 2:28 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 2:19 pm
tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 1:47 pm Euro is now the quickest of getting precip in here. The models are bouncing around quite a bit.
It has the GFS timing now but still cranking that low up and really bombing it out over the Lakes and Canada. GFS is only 999 MB at its lowest point. So again... one sees some blocking the other model has no blocking at all. I actually favor the GFS or CMC models here and not as cranked up as the Euro. We talked about the NAO / AO potentially going negative for a time so if correct, the Euro solution wouldn't make much sense. If they do not go negative, the Euro would have a shot at being more correct.
Les I believe we are pinpointing the forecast and like you mention does the NAO/AO go negative for a short period of time. I still like how the gfs handles everything and I believe all 3 models show a nice shot of cold air behind the main system which can give us a period of snow but more in line of an inch or so. Then we stay cold next weekend before I believe is a really nice shot of milder air. Once I see more systems heading into the pacific northwest then I believe that will finally cut off the colder air from Canada but I got to say this will be a nice cold spell and one that is lasting longer than normal in mid-November. Timing is always key in the forecasts and another item is the strong cold air mass over Canada should help keep next weeks system further south as well. Something I am watching as well is how quickly does the precip get in here next week. I believe its Thanksgiving but if and a big if the preicp comes in say 12 hours earlier we could see a little front end winter precip but at the moment I have that happening at a very low outcome.

I can't disagree with any of your thoughts here Tim. I am just more up in the air for post Thanksgiving. At least we're not bored lol

Posted: **Wed Nov 16, 2022 2:35 pm**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 2:30 pm The 12Z 500 mb height in Anchorage of 577 dm was the 3rd highest for the month of November (00Z and 12Z on Nov 2, 2017 were higher). @Alaskanoaa

-EPO

Posted: **Wed Nov 16, 2022 3:06 pm**

Mid 30s here with continued on and off snow flurries. No longer seeing any accum.

Posted: **Wed Nov 16, 2022 3:26 pm**

Coming down pretty good with a nice batch moving through here

Screenshot_20221116-152401_Chrome.jpg

Posted: **Wed Nov 16, 2022 3:35 pm**

Currently in a break here but within the next hour, more flurries and snow showers should be occurring. Once the sun sets, we should see the activity wind down. We'll probably see a few more of these Thurs and Fri. Hopefully, some more brighter skies this weekend albeit very cold for the time of year.

Posted: **Wed Nov 16, 2022 3:45 pm**

No more graupel, just some nice big flakes floating down

Posted: **Wed Nov 16, 2022 3:58 pm**

A pretty good snow shower over my Brother in Milford too.

Posted: **Wed Nov 16, 2022 4:18 pm**

Quite the snow shower in Fairfield over the last half hour that dumped 1/4 of an inch on grass, roof tops and cars. dropped to 33 now.

Posted: **Wed Nov 16, 2022 4:34 pm**

Next batch of snow showers moving in from IN. I had a few peeks of sun over the last 30-45 mins. Snow Squall Parm. is decent over IN so more intense bursts (localized of course) can be expected for the next couple of hours.

Posted: **Wed Nov 16, 2022 4:36 pm**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 3:45 pm No more graupel, just some nice big flakes floating down

Looks like we have enough cold air throughout the atmosphere that snow should be it over the next several days. Again these are just flurries and once in awhile a nice snow shower.

Posted: **Wed Nov 16, 2022 4:39 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 3:35 pm Currently in a break here but within the next hour, more flurries and snow showers should be occurring. Once the sun sets, we should see the activity wind down. We'll probably see a few more of these Thurs and Fri. Hopefully, some more brighter skies this weekend albeit very cold for the time of year.

Les I am just wondering as the action out to the west is with a little disturbance I wonder if we can get some additional snow showers overnight. Usually with snow showers they are like summertime showers that wind down once the sun sets but this activity may be able to last somewhat overnight and if so a better shot at getting a quick 1/2 inch in some places though most folks a dusting is more likely

Absolute Vorticity

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