Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 26, 2022 8:33 am Awesome Mike on the rain!!! A bunch leaves came down here also, which is good. Get 'em down early so I'm not mulching in December. Oaks are just starting to change on the tops now but they're always late as compared to the rest of 'em (maples, ash, black walnut, etc)

Les the neighbor behind me has a big oak and this is the earliest I have even seen it change and matter of fact half the leaves are already on the ground. Once I get back in about 3 weeks I will have last big job but that should it for the season.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 26, 2022 8:35 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 26, 2022 8:33 am Awesome Mike on the rain!!! A bunch leaves came down here also, which is good. Get 'em down early so I'm not mulching in December. Oaks are just starting to change on the tops now but they're always late as compared to the rest of 'em (maples, ash, black walnut, etc)

Les the neighbor behind me has a big oak and this is the earliest I have even seen it change and matter of fact half the leaves are already on the ground. Once I get back in about 3 weeks I will have last big job but that should it for the season.

Same here Tim. I have one big one and the house directly to my SW has 2 monsters so I get all the oak leaves since we usually get a lot of SW winds. Never a good NE to blow 'em away from me. Oh no, we can't have that! I'm in a low spot so the property is a leaf collection magnet.

0.45 here

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Oct 25, 2022 11:32 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Tue Oct 25, 2022 8:37 pm It's so dry the leaves are falling off trees just with a little wind. I did one property yesterday. Drove by today and it is completely covered. Phone is ringing off the hook. Doesn't help that I had to take a sick day today as I I was feeling horrible yesterday but worked anyway. Hopefully all will get some rain as these dry leaves is not good if they get any kind of spark to them.

Prayers that you'll feel much better soon bro!

Thank you.

Back to weather and less than a tenth of an inch here so far. But it’s raining at the moment. There’s hope.

Low clouds extend all the way back across all of IN. No sun until you get into ILL so the 50s will be all we can muster today. Back to the seasonal 60s after that and maybe 70 on Saturday ahead of the next system.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 26, 2022 9:44 am Low clouds extend all the way back across all of IN. No sun until you get into ILL so the 50s will be all we can muster today. Back to the seasonal 60s after that and maybe 70 on Saturday ahead of the next system.

Getting into that time of year behind cold fronts where we stay cloudy and the models are always to positive on sun and they are usually a few degrees to high during the daylight hours. This usually lasts until later February when the models catch up to this but we are always on top of it on this forum.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 26, 2022 10:30 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 26, 2022 9:44 am Low clouds extend all the way back across all of IN. No sun until you get into ILL so the 50s will be all we can muster today. Back to the seasonal 60s after that and maybe 70 on Saturday ahead of the next system.

Getting into that time of year behind cold fronts where we stay cloudy and the models are always to positive on sun and they are usually a few degrees to high during the daylight hours. This usually lasts until later February when the models catch up to this but we are always on top of it on this forum.

Yes Sir! Very common from now thru March and sometimes April depending on the pattern.

12Z Euro looks good for a third of an inch of rain Sunday and lingering light rain / drizzle for Halloween. WE HOPE it ends for the kiddies, but I'm not betting on it occurring. Another 1/2" of rain for many is likely with our next system.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 26, 2022 3:34 pm 12Z Euro looks good for a third of an inch of rain Sunday and lingering light rain / drizzle for Halloween. WE HOPE it ends for the kiddies, but I'm not betting on it occurring. Another 1/2" of rain for many is likely with our next system.

That sounds about right Les. Could we get a tad more and yes but that will be determined on how slow the system moves through the area.

My gauge picked up .40"

Currently 48 here in G'ville and progged for around the freezing mark Thurs morning.

We've discussed the amounts for our next system, roughly a half inch. Now the timing. I like Sunday afternoon from SW to NE across the region with a band of rain, then becoming showery Sunday night. On Halloween, light mist / drizzle a few hundredths possible, nothing huge. For Trick-or-treat time that there will be some drizzle around, low clouds. Good trick-or-treating weather when I was a kid. Nice and spooky! Be careful kids not to slip on wet leaves when running from house to house. I am expecting temps to be in the 40s and 50s across the region during primetime trick-or-hours which for my county are 6-8pm.

Glad trick-or-treating will be dry here in Greenville as the city has it Thurs Oct 27th from 7-9 PM.

Still like the qpf amounts mentioned for next event. .20-.50" for the region with best chance along the river for the better rains

Weekly LaNina update shows region 3.4 hanging at -.80 and region 1.2 a whopping-2.0 , meaning no signs of weakening anytime soon

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Oct 27, 2022 5:54 am Weekly LaNina update shows region 3.4 hanging at -.80 and region 1.2 a whopping-2.0 , meaning no signs of weakening anytime soon


t0WwuX0.jpg

Yet some Pros out there keep banging the weakening drum. I sure as heck don't see that occurring. It's absolutely maintaining itself.

35 here right now... still too dark for me too see, but some patchy frost maybe out there this morning in some spots?

Everyone in AV Country is in the D1 drought category per the latest update. Remember, this was taken on Tuesday and did not factor in yesterday's rain and we also get another possible 1/2" on Sunday into Monday. Still though, we could use 4-5" of rain right now to get back to normal.

Dropped to 32 here with frost

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 27, 2022 9:05 am Dropped to 32 here with frost

Had a really good frost here thanks to the rain we just had. Rooftops and cars were more frosted then the ground.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 27, 2022 9:01 am Everyone in AV Country is in the D1 drought category per the latest update. Remember, this was taken on Tuesday and did not factor in yesterday's rain and we also get another possible 1/2" on Sunday into Monday. Still though, we could use 4-5" of rain right now to get back to normal.

Yesterday's and the weekend rains change nothing , Maybet the soil surface is wet but soil below will remain bone dry.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Oct 27, 2022 9:32 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 27, 2022 9:01 am Everyone in AV Country is in the D1 drought category per the latest update. Remember, this was taken on Tuesday and did not factor in yesterday's rain and we also get another possible 1/2" on Sunday into Monday. Still though, we could use 4-5" of rain right now to get back to normal.

Yesterday's and the weekend rains change nothing , Maybe tthe soil surface is wet but soil below will remain bone dry.

Oh, I agree! We need 4-5" to saturate the soil from top to bottom at this point. Only thing this past rain and this weekend's rain will do is to stop it from getting worse.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 27, 2022 9:51 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Oct 27, 2022 9:32 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 27, 2022 9:01 am Everyone in AV Country is in the D1 drought category per the latest update. Remember, this was taken on Tuesday and did not factor in yesterday's rain and we also get another possible 1/2" on Sunday into Monday. Still though, we could use 4-5" of rain right now to get back to normal.

Yesterday's and the weekend rains change nothing , Maybe tthe soil surface is wet but soil below will remain bone dry.

Oh, I agree! We need 4-5" to saturate the soil from top to bottom at this point. Only thing this past rain and this weekend's rain will do is to stop it from getting worse.

That's about right for most decent soils around here, assuming most of that would soak in and not runoff. Of course sandy soils (and freshly worked garden soils)which are rare for most here ,would only take 2 or 3" to soak the column. Then there is the clay based soils which are many around here due to construction, God only knows how much is needed to soak into those soil situations

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Oct 27, 2022 10:12 am That's about right for most decent soils around here, assuming most of that would soak in and not runoff. Of course sandy soils (and freshly worked garden soils)which are rare for most here ,would only take 2 or 3" to soak the column. Then there is the clay based soils which are many around here due to construction, God only knows how much is needed to soak into those soil situations

I hate the clay we have here. It's either like concrete (when it's dry) or like mush when it's wet. no middle of the road. It doesn't hold moisture. Water just runs off too when you get a heavy rain with dry conditions going in. Yep... that's my hood alright.