Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 15, 2022 4:06 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Aug 15, 2022 3:59 pm LaNina weekly reading features another cool down, 3.4 region down to -1.1. Recent Inactive phase of MJO has helped stifle Atlantic tropical activity so far In August, along with the SAL.

This is a great website to track the African Dust or SAL from the Univ of Wisconsin.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/

If a wave can make it to the Islands then it'll have a chance. Too much dust East of the Islands. I did see a recent GFS run try and show something get cooking around Day 9 but until then, it's pretty much crickets on this side of the globe.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Aug 15, 2022 5:26 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 15, 2022 4:06 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Aug 15, 2022 3:59 pm LaNina weekly reading features another cool down, 3.4 region down to -1.1. Recent Inactive phase of MJO has helped stifle Atlantic tropical activity so far In August, along with the SAL.

This is a great website to track the African Dust or SAL from the Univ of Wisconsin.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/

If a wave can make it to the Islands then it'll have a chance. Too much dust East of the Islands. I did see a recent GFS run try and show something get cooking around Day 9 but until then, it's pretty much crickets on this side of the globe.

Yea , the hurricane lovers are panicking but I don't see the inactivity so far as all that unusual. If you look at the average date , there's a huge jump around the 20th , so once that arrives , I'm sure the tropical Atlantic will start generating waves as well as the modelling

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Aug 15, 2022 6:15 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Aug 15, 2022 5:26 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 15, 2022 4:06 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Aug 15, 2022 3:59 pm LaNina weekly reading features another cool down, 3.4 region down to -1.1. Recent Inactive phase of MJO has helped stifle Atlantic tropical activity so far In August, along with the SAL.

This is a great website to track the African Dust or SAL from the Univ of Wisconsin.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/

If a wave can make it to the Islands then it'll have a chance. Too much dust East of the Islands. I did see a recent GFS run try and show something get cooking around Day 9 but until then, it's pretty much crickets on this side of the globe.

Yea , the hurricane lovers are panicking but I don't see the inactivity so far as all that unusual. If you look at the average date , there's a huge jump around the 20th , so once that arrives , I'm sure the tropical Atlantic will start generating waves as well as the modelling

Great Post and I believe the biggest problem is all the hype from many of the met's and of course the media just eats that stuff up. Bigger story imo is the pacific and this has been going on for several years and the amount of storms is down. Again I believe years ago we had periods where the tropics were very active but we had no satellites and relied on ships to send in the information. You know its slow though when the gfs is not showing much in the way of activity because usually by late July you are seeing storms in the extended models which is sort of like the cold the model shows starting in November but we wait and wait. If we start to see more troughs over the central and eastern part of the country come early September that can really keep the storms out to sea more and though most experts believe the east coast would be the place that could get hit more this season those troughs if they get going and continue one after another then getting any storm to hit the coast becomes a challenge.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 15, 2022 4:59 pm Welcome Home again Tim! Sorry about the rain but if it makes you feel any better only a few hundredths yesterday and CVG only 0.05" Anyway that Nina is going to be a thorn on our sides to try and figure this winter season out and the quiet tropics are also very very interesting. Even the West Pac has been low on activity. M storm over there, H storm in the East Pac and only the B storm in the Atl. A lame season overall but how will that impact the upcoming winter is the question of the day for me. More research is certainly needed in the coming weeks and months on this issue. We will have to put on our thinking toques, eh?

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Aug 17, 2022 10:18 am An interesting late summer and early fall pattern coming up. Not a new pattern but the same one that will now be injected with a tropical influence. Fun times ahead!!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Aug 17, 2022 10:18 am An interesting late summer and early fall pattern coming up. Not a new pattern but the same one that will now be injected with a tropical influence. Fun times ahead!!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 17, 2022 2:24 pm 12Z Euro continuing the call of rain on Sunday and very little happening until then.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Aug 17, 2022 2:40 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 17, 2022 2:24 pm 12Z Euro continuing the call of rain on Sunday and very little happening until then.

Les you can tell we are in the dry part of the growing season which is mid-August - mid-October. Many times you may only see and inch or two or rain during this 2 month period. However,when you can get a tropical system to interact with a cold front this is where the totals can go way up. So my guess during this two month period rainfall total will average 4-5 inches. There will be many years though where cold front after cold front comes through with little moisture and you get 1 or 2 inches. Then you have those years once in awhile that will have the tropics rule and getting 7-10 is possible. Saying all that and trying to follow my logic is not easy but there are some wild swings in regards to rainfall total during this period. Will need to watch the models and sometimes they will show a cold front getting in here say day 5 but then the next run will show day 7 and that usually means this time of year the tropics are trying to be the bully on the block. That bully wins several fights early on but tends to back down later in September but again this year the cold fronts may push back on the bully a little earlier than normal.