Absolute Vorticity

Here is the 3km NAM sounding for late tomorrow at CVG showing the potential.....

12Z HRRR sounding looked good too, but shows a significant cap at CVG so coverage isn't much. Where it does form, it'll be strong. DCAPE values were at 1500 for strong winds! 12Z NAM is not quite as impressive as the 6Z sounding but still way more of a tornado signal then the HRRR for sure.

Most everyone now is under a slight risk for Wed, per latest SPC Day 2 Outlook.

12Z GFS looking decent too. I still like the after dark timing esp as one goes south. Also like the idea of a stronger cap the more one goes south. However, everyone still in the game. I favor Ohio counties at this time. Wondering if we see an upgrade later today or tomorrow for a portion of Ohio to an enhanced risk?

SPC update this afternoon stays about the same, they obviously think the NAM possibilities are the way to go atm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 2:40 pm SPC update this afternoon stays about the same, they obviously think the NAM possibilities are the way to go atm

I noticed a slight nudge to the SW with the slight risk area to cover more of KY then in the previous update, but for most of AV, yes... no major changes at all. I think the biggest challenge for us down here is how much does the cap erode for storms to fire?

Heat Advisory issued for tomorrow for the Cincy and Dayton areas. Not a shock really.


...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 104 expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Southeast Indiana, Northern Kentucky and
Southwest and West Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From 1 PM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat
illnesses to occur.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 3:00 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 2:40 pm SPC update this afternoon stays about the same, they obviously think the NAM possibilities are the way to go atm

I noticed a slight nudge to the SW with the slight risk area to cover more of KY then in the previous update, but for most of AV, yes... no major changes at all. I think the biggest challenge for us down here is how much does the cap erode for storms to fire?

Hey Les great post. Really comes down the the cap eroding. If this happens big storms are possible and is the cap remains n place many folks will see nothing, These situations I have no ideal really until later in the afternoon.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 5:49 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 3:00 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 2:40 pm SPC update this afternoon stays about the same, they obviously think the NAM possibilities are the way to go atm

I noticed a slight nudge to the SW with the slight risk area to cover more of KY then in the previous update, but for most of AV, yes... no major changes at all. I think the biggest challenge for us down here is how much does the cap erode for storms to fire?

Hey Les great post. Really comes down the the cap eroding. If this happens big storms are possible and is the cap remains n place many folks will see nothing, These situations I have no ideal really until later in the afternoon.

For us, it's as simple as that! For the I-70 Crew, that shouldn't be an issue.

AL has defeated the NL 9 times in a row in All-Star Game history!! Congrats!

Currently 73 here in G'ville.

Besides the 90s... the top weather story is severe or nothing this evening. Everyone is under a slight risk with a 2% tornado, very low hail threat and a 15% wind threat. So damaging straight line winds is the biggest hazard with an isolated spin up certainly on the table. We'll just have to see what's popping by the time we get towards rush hour to our North and West.

Going to be interesting later watching the to see the clouds build and how tall they can get needed to break the cap, I love observing that.

In the extended, and I have only looked at the EUensembles, but they look very encouraging for next week and beyond. The heat Dome shifts westward and relief for the plains is in site with a cool down and some precip and for us we should firmly be in a NWflow pattern for the rest of July, starting sometime next week and beyond. This pattern should result in numerous off and on chances of t-storms going into the last week of July and start of August, along with normalish temps

Great post Bgoney! After the scattered severe threat this evening, Mon and Tues of next week gets things started in the more active weather category. Until then, here come the 90s!

Great post Bgoney. Funny is back in May and June some of the longer term models showed a weakness in the pattern over the midwest. This may end up being correct per those maps. This would push the main ridge further west but also ridging from the Atlantic would keep the east coast a little above average.

Good Morning Les and looking at some of the models this morning and they seem a little more bullish on the cap breaking later today. Does this mean we will see storms and no but the odds seem a little better than yesterday. Love to see this fire up about 75 miles north of us later today and sweep south. Do we also get some building of storms to the southwest. Again high winds and heavy rain the most likely outcome but sometimes you can get those cells that form on the southwest end of a complex that can produce an isolated tornado.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jul 20, 2022 7:41 am Good Morning Les and looking at some of the models this morning and they seem a little more bullish on the cap breaking later today. Does this mean we will see storms and no but the odds seem a little better than yesterday. Love to see this fire up about 75 miles north of us later today and sweep south. Do we also get some building of storms to the southwest. Again high winds and heavy rain the most likely outcome but sometimes you can get those cells that form on the southwest end of a complex that can produce an isolated tornado.

Good morning Tim! Yeah... where the storms develop will be very key for us down here. I like where we are headed next week. Back to an active pattern again after the next round of heat.

Not much of an AFD from the boys, but here we go:

Temperatures today are expected to be in the upper 80s to lower
90s. The combination of heat and humidity will lead to heat
index values reaching heat advisory criteria across southern
portions of the forecast area. Have a heat advisory out for
these locations and a special weather statement out across the
north highlighting heat index values around 95 to 99.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop today. There is still
some question on how much coverage there will be, however the
greatest coverage looks to be across central Ohio and into the
Scioto River Valley areas. Given the environment, damaging
thunderstorm winds are going to be the primary threat, however
isolated large hail and tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

Soundings from the 6Z NAM and HRRR are good for severe wx but coverage remains scattered due to the cap. If models are wrong and the cap breaks more then expected then development of the storms could be quick and rapid. Need to keep an eye open after 7pm this evening until about 11pm for most folks.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 20, 2022 8:18 am Soundings from the 6Z NAM and HRRR are good for severe wx but coverage remains scattered due to the cap. If models are wrong and the cap breaks more then expected then development of the storms could be quick and rapid. Need to keep an eye open after 7pm this evening until about 11pm for most folks.

Should be fun to watch Les. Should have the normal build up of clouds in the 12p-2pm like we see most days in the summer. Then we usually clear out but today we need to watch between 4-5pm to see if those clouds become bigger and continue to build higher. Will be watching to the north to see if the expansion of the cloud base continues.

Not seeing any changes to the newly issued Day1 Outlook. It's watch and wait game at this point to see how much convection can fire and where.

SPC Soundings page might be messed up. Can anyone see the 12Z sounding for KILN? The webpage isn't loading correctly for me.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 20, 2022 9:07 am SPC Soundings page might be messed up. Can anyone see the 12Z sounding for KILN? The webpage isn't loading correctly for me.

The parcel info looks screwed up

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 20, 2022 9:33 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 20, 2022 9:07 am SPC Soundings page might be messed up. Can anyone see the 12Z sounding for KILN? The webpage isn't loading correctly for me.

The parcel info looks screwed up


ILN.gif

Yeah it's been messed up recently. Don't know why. DCAPE already is impressive for being so early still in the morning.