Absolute Vorticity

Already 84 in Louisville with DP of 76!

Already seeing a couple of "considerable" severe thunderstorm warnings up in Iowa now - I believe this will eventually feed into the long lived MCS/possible derecho that tracks across S Wisconsin/N Illinois/S Michigan into N Indiana and Ohio later today/tonight.

80 / 75 imby currently, and when the dews are this high, it is just simply gross to be outside. Derecho comp values are already at a 4 for SE IN and NKY. 6 back across the St. Louis area. Mid level lapse rates are already very steep to the West and SW.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 9:32 am Already seeing a couple of "considerable" severe thunderstorm warnings up in Iowa now - I believe this will eventually feed into the long lived MCS/possible derecho that tracks across S Wisconsin/N Illinois/S Michigan into N Indiana and Ohio later today/tonight.

Hey Mike... what are your thoughts on that Iowa activity that is developing sending an outflow boundary to ignite that possible MCS for SE IN, SW OH and NKY this afternoon? 12Z HRRR and NAM aren't showing much convection today. The big overnight MCS only gets NE Ohio and all of AV Country gets nothing. I just don't think those models are handling the upstream activity well at all so guidance IMO really cannot be trusted for today.

BG Blog Update: https://www.wave3.com/2022/06/13/stormt ... pdate-613/

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 9:57 am

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 9:32 am Already seeing a couple of "considerable" severe thunderstorm warnings up in Iowa now - I believe this will eventually feed into the long lived MCS/possible derecho that tracks across S Wisconsin/N Illinois/S Michigan into N Indiana and Ohio later today/tonight.

Hey Mike... what are your thoughts on that Iowa activity that is developing sending an outflow boundary to ignite that possible MCS for SE IN, SW OH and NKY this afternoon? 12Z HRRR and NAM aren't showing much convection today. The big overnight MCS only gets NE Ohio and all of AV Country gets nothing. I just don't think those models are handling the upstream activity well at all so guidance IMO really cannot be trusted for today.

Yeah I agree it is definitely a now-cast scenario for today. The HRRR runs had a robust MCS coming in here later today, then it had nothing, then only a couple cells. Satellite shows some sort of boundary right over us so that complex in Iowa may send a ripple our way for that initial MCS. We will have to keep an eye on things.

Had to get some edging done outside as the lawn was to wet before. Interesting afternoon and evening ahead. First of all is you can see the mcs's in the northern and central plains heading east and also slightly southeast in the past hour. Models are having a hard time with this as the strong ridge tries to push in and models then push the mcs's further north. Next problem is we are sitting with a time bomb over the area and folks just to the west as well. So if we get any portion of that mcs to make it into the area expect some strong and even possible severe storms. These would be heavy rain and very strong winds. Saying all of that this set is really hard to predict and models seem to switch every hour or two on where the mcs may end up going. Like the old now cast in the winter and we watch radar trends a lot. Short term models and nam is just having a hard time. The hrrr model which did very well with the tornado set up last week but missed the next one is just starting to see the storms form this afternoon. The wrf model though is really showing a nice complex coming through the middle of the tri-state. Going to watch the hrrr model as the most recent run was heading towards the wrf model and if that continues it does give you a little better ideal where the action might happen this afternoon and evening.

SBCAPE of 5000 J/kg nosing into the Louisville area currently and DCAPE still in the powder keg range here (1100-1200). Even seeing a supercell composite of 4 in our hoods now. The stew is a cookin'!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 10:10 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 9:57 am

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 9:32 am Already seeing a couple of "considerable" severe thunderstorm warnings up in Iowa now - I believe this will eventually feed into the long lived MCS/possible derecho that tracks across S Wisconsin/N Illinois/S Michigan into N Indiana and Ohio later today/tonight.

Hey Mike... what are your thoughts on that Iowa activity that is developing sending an outflow boundary to ignite that possible MCS for SE IN, SW OH and NKY this afternoon? 12Z HRRR and NAM aren't showing much convection today. The big overnight MCS only gets NE Ohio and all of AV Country gets nothing. I just don't think those models are handling the upstream activity well at all so guidance IMO really cannot be trusted for today.

Yeah I agree it is definitely a now-cast scenario for today. The HRRR runs had a robust MCS coming in here later today, then it had nothing, then only a couple cells. Satellite shows some sort of boundary right over us so that complex in Iowa may send a ripple our way for that initial MCS. We will have to keep an eye on things.

Thanks Mike... that was kind of my thought too when I asked lol It could be an interesting afternoon and evening!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 10:23 am SBCAPE of 5000 J/kg nosing into the Louisville area currently and DCAPE still in the powder keg range here (1100-1200). Even seeing a supercell composite of 4 in our hoods now. The stew is a cookin'!

A pocket of 7000 J/kg in ILL... My Goodness!

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 10:19 am Had to get some edging done outside as the lawn was to wet before. Interesting afternoon and evening ahead. First of all is you can see the mcs's in the northern and central plains heading east and also slightly southeast in the past hour. Models are having a hard time with this as the strong ridge tries to push in and models then push the mcs's further north. Next problem is we are sitting with a time bomb over the area and folks just to the west as well. So if we get any portion of that mcs to make it into the area expect some strong and even possible severe storms. These would be heavy rain and very strong winds. Saying all of that this set is really hard to predict and models seem to switch every hour or two on where the mcs may end up going. Like the old now cast in the winter and we watch radar trends a lot. Short term models and nam is just having a hard time. The hrrr model which did very well with the tornado set up last week but missed the next one is just starting to see the storms form this afternoon. The wrf model though is really showing a nice complex coming through the middle of the tri-state. Going to watch the hrrr model as the most recent run was heading towards the wrf model and if that continues it does give you a little better ideal where the action might happen this afternoon and evening.

13Z HRRR Tim had a couple clusters of storms but nothing really major looking to me minus the overnight MCS that nails the NE 1/2 of Ohio.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 10:36 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 10:19 am Had to get some edging done outside as the lawn was to wet before. Interesting afternoon and evening ahead. First of all is you can see the mcs's in the northern and central plains heading east and also slightly southeast in the past hour. Models are having a hard time with this as the strong ridge tries to push in and models then push the mcs's further north. Next problem is we are sitting with a time bomb over the area and folks just to the west as well. So if we get any portion of that mcs to make it into the area expect some strong and even possible severe storms. These would be heavy rain and very strong winds. Saying all of that this set is really hard to predict and models seem to switch every hour or two on where the mcs may end up going. Like the old now cast in the winter and we watch radar trends a lot. Short term models and nam is just having a hard time. The hrrr model which did very well with the tornado set up last week but missed the next one is just starting to see the storms form this afternoon. The wrf model though is really showing a nice complex coming through the middle of the tri-state. Going to watch the hrrr model as the most recent run was heading towards the wrf model and if that continues it does give you a little better ideal where the action might happen this afternoon and evening.

13Z HRRR Tim had a couple clusters of storms but nothing really major looking to me minus the overnight MCS that nails the NE 1/2 of Ohio.

Les what I noticed from 13 hrrr compared to the earlier HRRR model runs is you are starting to see some action near us. Hard to see on the models but the 13hrrr was starting to pick up on the storms between here and Indy. That is why I am looking at the model over the next few hours to see if that trend continues.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 10:46 am Les what I noticed from 13 hrrr compared to the earlier HRRR model runs is you are starting to see some action near us. Hard to see on the models but the 13hrrr was starting to pick up on the storms between here and Indy. That is why I am looking at the model over the next few hours to see if that trend continues.

Totally agree... would like to see a bit more action showing up but if the next 2 or 3 runs does that then I will probably end up believing it.

4500 J/KG of CAPE now for NKY, 6000 near LOU. In a corridor from IND to LEX including CVG... 1200 J/KG for DCAPE values. Wow.. Ridiculous dew points now... 84 / 77 in my hood... Googly Moogly! 83 / 77 at CVG as of 11am.

Hot off the presses from the boys...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
There is still quite a bit of uncertainty on convective
evolution and coverage for this afternoon into tonight.

A mid level ridge to our southwest will begin to build northeast
into the Ohio Valley this afternoon. Meanwhile, a warm front,
is noted from visible imagery from central IN southeast into
the Tri-State. There was already ample instability on the 12Z
KILN sounding in which the MLCAPE was around 2000 J/kg. Radar
mosaic was showing at least two distinct MCVs. One was pushing
east into southwest WI with another one pushing into
central/northern WI. The advancing warm front into the area,
combined with the southern MCVs influence (a mid level trough
axis) may spark convection to our west/northwest late this
afternoon. Even though low level forcing is weak, there will be
plenty of instability to feed on. In fact, MLCAPES near the Tri-
State are forecast to rise to between 4000 and 5000 J/kg. This
very unstable air is being driven from ample moisture in the low
levels (lower to mid 70s dewpoints sfc dewpoints) and steeping
mid level lapse rates. So, if enough convection can get going
and congeal, an impactful MCS could result as it is driven by a
developing cold pool and 0-3 km shear that pushes it southeast.
Damaging straight-line winds would be the major impact (some
wind gusts at least considerable of 70 mph or higher) as DCAPEs
push appreciably above 1000 J/kg. Given fat CAPE between -10 and
-30, large hail is still a threat. Can not rule out an isolated
tornado threat given some veering of the winds in the low
levels (even though 0-1 km shear is expected to be weak). Also,
with high pwats rising to or more than 2 inches, locally heavy
efficient rainfall could occur. Various CAMs offer solutions
that vary from not much of anything happening (isolated storms)
to a substantial MCS. Still at this juncture, confidence is low
with this first convective potential. As such, chance PoPs will
be used. If and an when confidence increases that this event
will unfold, then PoPs will obviously be updated/increased. We
will monitor. In addition to storms, heat and humidity builds
today. Highs will range from the upper 80s to around 90. This
heat/humidity will push heat index values across the south and
southwest into the 95 to 100 degree range.

The second timeframe for another MCS is the evening/overnight
along and north of I-70. Storms may form along the warm front in
southern Michigan late this afternoon into this evening before
growing upscale and diving southeast into northern Ohio toward
the higher instability airmass overnight. This will be driven by
the other MCV over WI along with an increasing low level jet
and ample deep layer shear. This potential MCS would affect our
northern/northeast zones. Also, given high pwats, locally heavy
rainfall will be possible.

Low tonight will only lower into the lower to mid 70s in a muggy
airmass.

We don't see dews this high very often. 78 is my dew now... lol This is getting ridiculous! I almost wish a storm would pop to cool us down a tad. But that isn't going to happen right now. Too much of a CAP in place. Near and just N of the warm front the CAP should break later and with the warm front currently draped from IND down into the Tri-state, we must keep one eye open at this time.

Sounds like they agree with our thinking on here. 83/74 in my hood now.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 11:48 am We don't see dews this high very often. 78 is my dew now... lol This is getting ridiculous! I almost wish a storm would pop to cool us down a tad. But that isn't going to happen right now. Too much of a CAP in place. Near and just N of the warm front the CAP should break later and with the warm front currently draped from IND down into the Tri-state, we must keep one eye open at this time.

Wonder what the June record high dewpoint is for CVG (or anywhere in our hoods)? I agree these are quite rare events, especially for June.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 11:50 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 11:48 am We don't see dews this high very often. 78 is my dew now... lol This is getting ridiculous! I almost wish a storm would pop to cool us down a tad. But that isn't going to happen right now. Too much of a CAP in place. Near and just N of the warm front the CAP should break later and with the warm front currently draped from IND down into the Tri-state, we must keep one eye open at this time.

Wonder what the June record high dewpoint is for CVG (or anywhere in our hoods)? I agree these are quite rare events, especially for June.

To my knowledge, the NWS does not keep dew point records or if they do, I've never found them.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 11:50 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 11:48 am We don't see dews this high very often. 78 is my dew now... lol This is getting ridiculous! I almost wish a storm would pop to cool us down a tad. But that isn't going to happen right now. Too much of a CAP in place. Near and just N of the warm front the CAP should break later and with the warm front currently draped from IND down into the Tri-state, we must keep one eye open at this time.

Wonder what the June record high dewpoint is for CVG (or anywhere in our hoods)? I agree these are quite rare events, especially for June.

I found this old Steve H post on FB that had some stats

Glad you found the post and I thought it was 81 for the highest dew point temp. Usually mid-late June is when you get the highest dew points because of all the new growth plus the longest daylight hours. Usually by July and August we have some dry periods and though dew points can reach the mid-upper 70's the highest they don't get any higher.

mbricker wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 12:17 pm

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 11:50 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 11:48 am We don't see dews this high very often. 78 is my dew now... lol This is getting ridiculous! I almost wish a storm would pop to cool us down a tad. But that isn't going to happen right now. Too much of a CAP in place. Near and just N of the warm front the CAP should break later and with the warm front currently draped from IND down into the Tri-state, we must keep one eye open at this time.

Wonder what the June record high dewpoint is for CVG (or anywhere in our hoods)? I agree these are quite rare events, especially for June.

I found this old Steve H post on FB that had some statsdewpoints.JPG

Thanks very much for finding that info. Appreciate it!

89/79 at Bloomington, IN at the moment. Heat index of 104. Interesting to see how high those heat inducies go this afternoon in Indiana. Our hoods as well.

87 / 79 here currently. As of 12:35pm, 84 / 79 at CVG. SB CAPE is now up to 4500 J/KG for Cincinnati, 5000 for NKY and 6500 now for LOU. DCAPE values still high with 1200 for us and 1300 for LOU. Mid level Lapse rates are getting steep now with 7.5C for us, 8.0 just off to our W and 8.5 in Western KY. Once you get at 8 or higher, large hail also becomes a concern especially early on if any discrete cells form prior to congealing into an MCS. LI's are at -8 N of the river, about -9 for NKY and -10 (or lower) just to the SW of the Cincinnati Metro. Cloud to ground lightning and very loud thunder would be the result of that. Supercell comp index is a 4 for most with a pocket of 8 over SE IN. Derecho comp still holding at a 4. Just waiting on that trigger guys if the cap can break later on.

NEW Update from the boys:


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Given much higher dewpoints in our south/southwest, we plan on
issuing a short term Heat Advisory for this region.