Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 6:58 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 6:44 am Good Morning Les and hopefully by this afternoon we have enough info to open a new topic. Important feature that we are not talking about is the front coming through here late today and heading southeast. Where does this front get hung up over the Carolina's. Will it make it all the way to the coast or get hung up in the central part of South Carolina. This is a very important feature and yes we tend to look at the storm itself but the pathway for the storm is sometimes set up a few days in advance and that is where the front will stall out. Cold air and yes we have enough for winter type precip but this is not the coldest air mass coming through and much of the true arctic air is well to the northeast. May be some leftover snow showers Monday but we do see the temps go up briefly next Tuesday and Wednesday and of course snow on the ground could temper the temps but late next week and weekend more storminess is likely and I believe the coldest air of the season headed this way but will this be attached to a storm system and most likely yes.

My take Tim on today's system has always been to keep it weak and keep it moving. The more it lingers or digs, the more heights will be suppressed ahead of our next system and it'll track more south and turn the corner further to the east. For our area, since we look to miss the drop south on Saturday then we need to cash in when the system tracks north. We could do very well if the storm comes more north and is stronger as well before turning north and NE, but if we only get clipped by the turn north, then amounts won't be much. Lots of moving parts. Big snow storms usually are.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:12 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 6:58 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 6:44 am Good Morning Les and hopefully by this afternoon we have enough info to open a new topic. Important feature that we are not talking about is the front coming through here late today and heading southeast. Where does this front get hung up over the Carolina's. Will it make it all the way to the coast or get hung up in the central part of South Carolina. This is a very important feature and yes we tend to look at the storm itself but the pathway for the storm is sometimes set up a few days in advance and that is where the front will stall out. Cold air and yes we have enough for winter type precip but this is not the coldest air mass coming through and much of the true arctic air is well to the northeast. May be some leftover snow showers Monday but we do see the temps go up briefly next Tuesday and Wednesday and of course snow on the ground could temper the temps but late next week and weekend more storminess is likely and I believe the coldest air of the season headed this way but will this be attached to a storm system and most likely yes.

My take Tim on today's system has always been to keep it weak and keep it moving. The more it lingers or digs, the more heights will be suppressed ahead of our next system and it'll track more south and turn the corner further to the east. For our area, since we look to miss the drop south on Saturday then we need to cash in when the system tracks north. We could do very well if the storm comes more north and is stronger as well before turning north and NE, but if we only get clipped by the turn north, then amounts won't be much. Lots of moving parts. Big snow storms usually are.

Les you are correct and another key part to this storm is the reorganizing of the first system on Friday. This storm is going to gain strength once again and that helps it move further to the north and west. I really do not believe it will become a Carolina coastal storm. More likely is and inland storm with the upper support northwest of there. How close will the upper support be to us is key.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:17 am Great write up by them Les and pretty much of my thinking at the moment. Les remember not to far northwest as there is really not a cold shot of air to the northwest during the weekend and a bigger push of course can change some of the snow to liquid form. I will take this mornings Euro and be very happy and then maybe see a slightly stronger system on Sunday to give out a nice snow for most folks. Get the back brace out if this happens as the snow will be the heavy wet type and of course I will be to busy watching football on Sunday to shovel lol

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:18 am While impacts on Cincinnati are TBD, I went on ahead and started a thread since there will be a storm; track TBD.

viewtopic.php?f=9&t=101

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:16 am What interests me is the GFS was always NW. Some CMC support. Euro was always weaker and SE. Then you have the Euro and EPS as well come NW to match some of the GFS solutions. Want to see the GFS tick back NW and the Euro at least hold where it's at and some folks esp along and east of the I-71 corridor can break out the shovels. Would love to see a hundred mile shift NW to get everyone involved, but that is probably wishful thinking.

westharrisonwx wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 8:49 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:16 am What interests me is the GFS was always NW. Some CMC support. Euro was always weaker and SE. Then you have the Euro and EPS as well come NW to match some of the GFS solutions. Want to see the GFS tick back NW and the Euro at least hold where it's at and some folks esp along and east of the I-71 corridor can break out the shovels. Would love to see a hundred mile shift NW to get everyone involved, but that is probably wishful thinking.

Seeing how we only got a handful of flakes from the last week's system out here in SE IN, I would gladly take 1-3" like some of the 0z guidance was showing. Back to back shutouts would be frustrating.

Spacejunk wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:52 pm Drizzle in Oxtown

snowbo wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:16 pm Happy birthday Eric. Hope you had a great day!!! Now some weekend snow to top it all off!