Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

[MVWxObserver]

The disturbance now only has a 30% chance so development is not likely with that one as it brings heavy rain to Central America soon.

Now at 10%, so adios, Pedro.

[tron777]

We may have something to track finally in the Atlantic basin. We have a tropical wave that now has a 50% chance of development in the next 5 days.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2


Some guidance is forecasting this to become a hurricane down the road as it enters the Caribbean Sea.

[tron777]

We're up to a 60% chance now in the next 5 days for development.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[tron777]

The ATL Tropical Wave, known as Invest 94L, has a 40% chance in the next 2-3 days and 70% now in the next 5 days for development. Also, we have a wave in the N Gulf that only has a 20% chance in the next 5 days as it drifts slowly westward. Doubtful we see any tropical development with that one.

[tron777]

We have a total of three tropical waves now. 2 of them have low chances for development, like 20%. The big game in town is the ATL wave we've been tracking. A 70% chance now in the next 48 hours and a 90% chance thereafter. This one is likely to become a depression soon and potentially get a name. If it does, the "B" storm is Bonnie.

[tron777]

The Gulf wave headed towards TX has a 30% chance. The far ATL wave is only at 20%. The Real McCoy is PTC2 which should be the next one to get a name was previously mentioned.

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
800 AM AST Tue Jun 28 2022

...DISTURBANCE HEADED FOR THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE ISLANDS LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.5N 56.5W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

[tron777]

Well well well...


A new hurricane model called the HAFS is in the works.

Today, NOAA put into operations its new weather and climate operational supercomputers. The advanced computing capacity, storage and speed will allow NWS to implement the innovative advances in weather and climate modeling from developers across the country.

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-su ... d9ZlFrAqm0

[tron777]

The Gulf wave now has a 40% chance of development. Still watching PTC2 waiting on it to get a name at some point. Then the wave in the far ATL still holding at a 30% chance.

[tron777]

The Gulf wave now has a 60% chance of development. Still watching PTC2 waiting on it to get a name at some point. Then the wave in the far ATL still has weakened down to a 10% chance.

[tron777]

We now have TS Bonnie. Hurricane watches are up for the Nicaraguan Coast.

Tropical Storm Bonnie Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
915 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the disturbance has now become Tropical Storm Bonnie over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea with maximum winds of 40 mph (65 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 915 AM EDT...1315 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 80.5W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[tron777]

TS Bonnie will be crossing over into the East PAC today and tomorrow so we will continue her discussion in that thread. We have TS Colin now off the SE Coast moving NE along the coast then eventually out to sea.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Colin Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

...TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORMS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 79.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES

[tron777]

NHC is watching a 30% chance for a wave to develop off the N Gulf Coast this weekend then moves inland across the SE US early next week (if you believe the Euro for example). Some models do not develop this system at all, but some do. Depending on development and track, moisture in the form of t-storms maybe close by to keep some of the nasty heat at bay to our west next week. Tim mentioned this potential the other day, and currently the satellite pics look tough for this system but we have a few days to watch it to see if anything can pop up tropically speaking.

[tron777]

Still holding at a 30% chance for the N Gulf Wave.

[tron777]

Chances have now dropped to 10% on the N Gulf wave.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and seldom post in the area but I was looking at satellite across the world and little if any action going on in regards to true tropical systems. Yes I see the normal disturbed areas but nothing you can call a tropical storm. Later July and you expect a few systems to be around especially in the pacific but not this year. Btw the pacific over the past few years has been very quiet compared to normal and does this have a correlation with the ongoing La Nina. Heading into August and yes its going to pick up but earlier this year I heard many of the so called experts calling for an above amount of tropical systems in this side of the globe. If that is true expect mid-August thru mid-October to be one busy period and much busier than normal. My worry is we tend to name storms that would have never been a named storm 50 years ago.

[tron777]

Good Morning and seldom post in the area but I was looking at satellite across the world and little if any action going on in regards to true tropical systems. Yes I see the normal disturbed areas but nothing you can call a tropical storm. Later July and you expect a few systems to be around especially in the pacific but not this year. Btw the pacific over the past few years has been very quiet compared to normal and does this have a correlation with the ongoing La Nina. Heading into August and yes its going to pick up but earlier this year I heard many of the so called experts calling for an above amount of tropical systems in this side of the globe. If that is true expect mid-August thru mid-October to be one busy period and much busier than normal. My worry is we tend to name storms that would have never been a named storm 50 years ago.

I'm not sold on an above avg year. There is time of course and we may see a rash of storms coming up down the road, but the hyperactive early season calls have busted.

[MVWxObserver]

Saharan dust and shear have also been inhibiting factors of late in the Atlantic and Caribbean.

[tron777]

This isn't helping the Cape Verde season right now...

[tpweather]

Just a quick update and only based on the gfs model. Usually by this time of year we start to see 1 or 2 storms that show up on the extended gfs model. So far I only see the normal flare up of storms in the afternoon in the southeast. The place which has been the busiest compared to normal has been the pacific off the Mexican coast and it shows another storm in the extended. Again maybe the Atlantic has a huge outburst of storms from the middle of Aug-middle of Oct and the experts will be correct but even the gfs is showing very little and it tends to be overdone on its runs during early August.

[tron777]

Too much African Dust still as well as wind shear. Gonna be another couple of weeks.

[tron777]

We have a wave coming off of Africa that shows a 40% chance in the next 5 days.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[tron777]

African Wave now has a 20% chance in the next 48 hours and a 40% chance in the next 5 days for development.

[tron777]

African wave is down to a 30% chance.

[tpweather]

African wave is down to a 30% chance.

Les very slow development this season and we are getting close to mid-August. Again we will have some systems form but getting to those predicted numbers will be tough to reach. Of course they will start naming storms if they see a nice thundershower in the middle of the ocean.

[tron777]

African wave is down to a 30% chance.

Les very slow development this season and we are getting close to mid-August. Again we will have some systems form but getting to those predicted numbers will be tough to reach. Of course they will start naming storms if they see a nice thundershower in the middle of the ocean.

I'm with you. It is going to be tough to get an above avg ACE season now. Not impossible but it will be difficult to do.