Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 19, 2024 7:22 am Hey Tim... good morning! NWS MSP is bumping up the Twin Cities Metro area to 5-7"! Mod to hvy snow is currently ongoing there with the clipper. Nice to see more snow then expected upstream. Again, the clipper will weaken as it moves thru our area, but the models are showing a nice band of snow that could drop 1/2" to 1" in some spots on the grass.

Concerning the longer term, the Ensembles continue to look good for early January. The overnight GEFS and EPS now have a -EPO / -NAO combo with a weak SE ridge. I like that look t be honest. We'll see what happens! I will have lots of time when I am off work next week to track this stuff.

Sound great Les. I believe the pattern will switch and really just the timing as always. I will give it up to the CMC on the clipper as it has been the strongest and yes we could see some light accumulation. The most concerning time for anything to cause problems with the roads is Friday Evening and early Saturday morning. Again snow showers and not everyone gets hit but only takes a 15 minute shower to mess up the roads and though they are still warm with the recent warmth will not take much at all to get those roads cold again since they have been quite cold most of December.

Speaking of the clipper and just looking at reports this one is a tad further south than models saw yesterday and when this happens with a systems coming from the northwest this will normally have the low itself further south. Not like a system from the southwest because then when a storm gets stronger we no this will tend to have the storm go further northwest. Do I expect more clippers in January and yes but hopefully before then we can get a decent system or two from the southwest.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 19, 2024 7:48 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 19, 2024 7:22 am Hey Tim... good morning! NWS MSP is bumping up the Twin Cities Metro area to 5-7"! Mod to hvy snow is currently ongoing there with the clipper. Nice to see more snow then expected upstream. Again, the clipper will weaken as it moves thru our area, but the models are showing a nice band of snow that could drop 1/2" to 1" in some spots on the grass.

Concerning the longer term, the Ensembles continue to look good for early January. The overnight GEFS and EPS now have a -EPO / -NAO combo with a weak SE ridge. I like that look t be honest. We'll see what happens! I will have lots of time when I am off work next week to track this stuff.

Sound great Les. I believe the pattern will switch and really just the timing as always. I will give it up to the CMC on the clipper as it has been the strongest and yes we could see some light accumulation. The most concerning time for anything to cause problems with the roads is Friday Evening and early Saturday morning. Again snow showers and not everyone gets hit but only takes a 15 minute shower to mess up the roads and though they are still warm with the recent warmth will not take much at all to get those roads cold again since they have been quite cold most of December.

Speaking of the clipper and just looking at reports this one is a tad further south than models saw yesterday and when this happens with a systems coming from the northwest this will normally have the low itself further south. Not like a system from the southwest because then when a storm gets stronger we no this will tend to have the storm go further northwest. Do I expect more clippers in January and yes but hopefully before then we can get a decent system or two from the southwest.

Completely agree! The Canadian does well with clipper and NW flow patterns. So I always give it and the RGEM some weight with these set up's.

Hey Tim, I have some friends who are a couple of former H.S. teachers of mine from my Hamilton days who reside in Appleton. Some fun times for Wausau, Appleton and in between etc.

Currently 30 here in G'ville and progged for around 33 today.

My folks and I have been fighting nasty cold bugs from hades since last week, Mom has it in her lungs with almost non-stop coughing and is hardly able to get any sleep anymore. Tis the season for crappy crud! We've both been tested and thankfully it came back negative re Covid.

Prayers for the 3 of us would sure be appreciated!

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Dec 19, 2024 8:25 am Hey Tim, I have some friends who are a couple of former H.S. teachers of mine from my Hamilton days who reside in Appleton. Some fun times for Wausau, Appleton and in between etc.

Currently 30 here in G'ville and progged for around 33 today.

My folks and I have been fighting nasty cold bugs from hades since last week, Mom has it in her lungs with almost non-stop coughing and is hardly able to get any sleep anymore. Tis the season for crappy crud! We've both been tested and thankfully it came back negative re Covid.

Hey Eric, I had a cough and cold for 10 days and finally starting to get better. Hope your Mom gets better soon. Merry Christmas to you and your whole family. I did a text for Covid as well and negative and only took the test to make sure that I could still be around folks. When we go up there we take the younger girls lol who are 13 to Appleton as it has more stores than Wausau.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 19, 2024 8:30 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Dec 19, 2024 8:25 am Hey Tim, I have some friends who are a couple of former H.S. teachers of mine from my Hamilton days who reside in Appleton. Some fun times for Wausau, Appleton and in between etc.

Currently 30 here in G'ville and progged for around 33 today.

My folks and I have been fighting nasty cold bugs from hades since last week, Mom has it in her lungs with almost non-stop coughing and is hardly able to get any sleep anymore. Tis the season for crappy crud! We've both been tested and thankfully it came back negative re Covid.

Hey Eric, I had a cough and cold for 10 days and finally starting to get better. Hope your Mom gets better soon. Merry Christmas to you and your whole family. I did a text for Covid as well and negative and only took the test to make sure that I could still be around folks. When we go up there we take the younger girls lol who are 13 to Appleton as it has more stores than Wausau.

Thank you Tim and am happy that you're on the rebound, bro. Merry Christmas to you and your whole family, too.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Dec 19, 2024 8:20 am IMG_2872.pngIMG_2871.jpeg

It definitely looks like we will be seeing a weak Central based Nina for this winter after all. I'm glad that it's not a strong ENSO event for a change. During weaker ENSO events, our chances of cold and snow are much better.

Yes if we keep the mjo moving through 6 and even 7 that is a good sign towards a colder pattern. Brian was giving out some hints about January and will leave that alone as he mentioned another video on Friday concerning the next month. I do find it funny on his video that he mentioned I believe the Euro was showing a few signs of snow on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day. Yes we have a small system sliding through and we are mainly on the north end but will there be enough cold air that can sink just far enough south to give us a few flakes. My thoughts have always been maybe start out on the 23rd as a bit of winter precip and then just rain for the holidays. I even backed off as well this morning though yes a mix Monday evening could still happen and yes road temps would have dropped by then. Gfs getting colder with each run on the extended towards the New Year and my guess with the mjo movement that is why the colder look. The Euro has almost always had a colder look compared to the GFS.

So if we get the mjo into the colder phases at least we would have some seasonal cold and talking about highs in the 35-40 range and lows mid 20's or so. Brian mentioned the PV and how it just takes time to release the cold if it splits and that time period is probably more in the 8th-15th range. We just don't have enough information to say yes its going to happen and yes its heading this way. Though we do have enough information to at lease talk about through the rest of the year lol

To bad temps are marginal, it’ll be similar to what we”ve seen this winter mostly melting on roads so that’s good. Where the pivot axis sets up could see that inch or so but most an inch or less for the region

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CVG reached 39 and both DAY / CMH 37 on Thurs.

Good morning! Mixed rain / snow is on the way! An SPS from the boys to begin our day:

...A PERIOD OF SNOW EXPECTED THIS MORNING...

Snow, perhaps mixed with a little rain initially, is expected to
spread across the area between 6 AM and noon. Locally moderate
snow will be possible. The snow will affect travel this morning,
which includes the Cincinnati and Dayton metro areas. With
temperatures slightly above freezing, much of the snow will
accumulate on grassy and elevated surfaces. However, higher rates
of snow will reduce visibilities and may cause road surfaces to
become slick, especially across bridges and overpasses. Snow
accumulations will vary from a half inch to up to 2 inches.

The snow will taper off to areas of rain and snow this afternoon
as temperatures warm slightly.

Allow extra time to reach your destination if traveling this
morning.

From the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Low pressure near northwest Indiana early this morning is
forecast to track southeast across the middle Ohio Valley today.
Dynamic lift with an upper level short wave will combine with
low level convergence associated with the attendent cold front
to produce a shield of precipitation.

Main concern this morning is the potential for a period of snow
to affect parts of east central Indiana and western/southwestern
Ohio and northern Kentucky (this includes the Cincinnati and
Dayton metro areas). Models continue to show that precipitation
may form into a band due to strong low level convergence.
Precipitation may initially mix with rain at the onset, then
with fairly strong vertical motion, surface temperatures will
cool to near freezing, and the atmospheric sounding will be cold
enough to produce a period of snow. Snow is expected to
accumulate mainly on elevated and grassy surfaces. However, with
temperatures hovering near freezing and pavement temperatures
hovering near freezing as well, a period of moderate snow could
result in a quick covering on roads, producing slick spots,
especially the vulnerable bridges and overpasses. Snow
accumulations will vary between a half inch to up to 2 inches in
this region. Elsewhere, forcing will be weaker, and with some
slight warming occurring ahead of the front, precipitation
should fall as rain/snow or just plain rain. A Special Weather
Statement will be issued to cover the potential impacts this
morning in the aforementioned region.

For this afternoon, the low will exit to the southeast toward
West Virginia. Some wrap around precipitation is expected, but
this will be lighter in nature than this mornings activity.
Slightly warmer air will wrap around the low before much colder
air arrives tonight. Thus, rain/snow or just plain rain, are
forecast for the remainder of the afternoon hours. Highs will
range from the lower to mid 30s west to the upper 30s east.

Based on radar, we should get some light rain with the front part of the system, a dry slot, then we watch the back part to see where it swings thru later today. The backside snow over N ILL and S Wisc is what we are watching for us. Looking at models, the overnight GFS impacts us, RGEM and CMC continue to nail us They have been the most aggressive for days. NAM and HRRR are mainly N of the River. We shall see!

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 20, 2024 6:04 am Based on radar, we should get some light rain with the front part of the system, a dry slot, then we watch the back part to see where it swings thru later today. The backside snow over N ILL and S Wisc is what we are watching for us. Looking at models, the overnight GFS impacts us, RGEM and CMC continue to nail us They have been the most aggressive for days. NAM and HRRR are mainly N of the River. We shall see!

Great Post Les and if we look at the history of this system it has been further south than models showed. I guess best forecast is snow showers and accumulations dusting to 1 inch though roads should be fine most of the day unless you get that 10-15 heavier snow shower. Cold weekend before we warm up for much of the remainder of the year. No changes for January yet and that is a good sign since I believe a decent month expected with cold and hopefully several systems.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 20, 2024 7:17 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 20, 2024 6:04 am Based on radar, we should get some light rain with the front part of the system, a dry slot, then we watch the back part to see where it swings thru later today. The backside snow over N ILL and S Wisc is what we are watching for us. Looking at models, the overnight GFS impacts us, RGEM and CMC continue to nail us They have been the most aggressive for days. NAM and HRRR are mainly N of the River. We shall see!

Great Post Les and if we look at the history of this system it has been further south than models showed. I guess best forecast is snow showers and accumulations dusting to 1 inch though roads should be fine most of the day unless you get that 10-15 heavier snow shower. Cold weekend before we warm up for much of the remainder of the year. No changes for January yet and that is a good sign since I believe a decent month expected with cold and hopefully several systems.

Thanks Tim! Early indications for early January look active with the cold and warm air battling it out. I think storms slide underneath the blocking ridge to the north along the S US. When they cut NE is the big question to what we can expect here.

My current long term thinking... We are in MJO phase 6 so a mild and wet pattern is coming. We know this thru the rest of 2024. For early 2025, expecting MJO to be Phase 7 and then stall. I am expecting a more neutral PNA as systems will be rolling into S California underneath the -EPO / -NAO block over the top. Cold 1040+ MB's highs pressing down into the country with an active storm track into S Cali. / S Plains Texas. Then do they roll east thru the SE States / TN Valley or is there a bit of a SE Ridge so that they cut NE? Certainly room for Cutters and Apps runners too. I also expect the WPO to be negative which helps keep the pattern more sustainable.

Light rain now at CVG, temp down to 36.

Not exactly good trends from model forecasts for MJO , but yet not unexpected.

Seeing some flakes mixing in here in Mason and back home (checked security cam's)

34 with a rain / snow mix at CVG per the 9am reading.

EDIT: 0.04" QPF

Working on a covering in Darke and Shelby counties.