The track of that secondary low that brings us the wind and first flakes... there is still a pretty large window as far as the track goes from the Ensembles. In a few more days we should be able to hone in on that a bit more.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat Nov 16, 2024 8:44 am
by tron777
First snows of the season using CVG as a location and amounts of 0.1" or more. Graphic thanks to John Gumm.
First Snows.jpg
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat Nov 16, 2024 8:59 am
by tron777
BG had to work this morning so we get an extra SnowTalk! Video:
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat Nov 16, 2024 10:56 am
by tpweather
Nice video by Brian and he mentioned everything we talked about on here and I agree the wind will be a bigger story and even if we get some snow that would most likely accumulate on roofs,grass and the streets mainly wet unless you are talking very early Thursday morning and also Thursday night into Friday morning but again that would probably only have slick spots on bridges at best. I leave on Sunday and will be back later Friday so keep up the great work folks and start working on that possible system Thanksgiving week and I do have some thoughts on that as well but may wait until I get back next weekend. 2 weddings and a trip in between sound busy in my world
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat Nov 16, 2024 12:54 pm
by tron777
Have a safe trip Tim! We'll keep it together while you're gone.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat Nov 16, 2024 1:46 pm
by young pup
Interesting week ahead. Am watching the models like a hawk.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat Nov 16, 2024 3:56 pm
by tron777
Intensity and track keeps changing on the models (which is expected) so nothing much to report yet as far as getting a forecast nailed down. For now, 52 at CVG and I saw a little bit of sunshine. Now it is cloudy again.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat Nov 16, 2024 4:03 pm
by Bgoney
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2024 3:56 pm
Intensity and track keeps changing on the models (which is expected) so nothing much to report yet as far as getting a forecast nailed down. For now, 52 at CVG and I saw a little bit of sunshine. Now it is cloudy again.
Wish the western ridge was more cooperative. That next storm entering the NW is pushing it( ridge) along. Not really allowing the upper low to dig. Kind of the way I see it atm.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat Nov 16, 2024 4:56 pm
by MVWxObserver
Have a great trip, Tim!
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat Nov 16, 2024 5:01 pm
by MVWxObserver
CVG got to 53, DAY 51 and CMH 50 today.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Nov 17, 2024 9:36 am
by tron777
Good morning all! The biggest change in the models are to tend further north and NE with the track of the upper low that brings us the snow for later next week. If correct, precip coverage would not be as good for one thing and a dry air punch on the southern side could also become an issue for portions of our forecast area. We'll have to keep an eye on it as the days ahead roll on. The snow part isn't looking like a big deal at all other then seeing first flakes of the season. Until then, we will be tracking an incoming cold front Mon night into Tuesday and its associated rain showers.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Nov 17, 2024 5:03 pm
by tron777
64 here today, CVG the same. One more n ice day then the rain showers return along with some breezy conditions. Should get windier as the week goes on.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Nov 17, 2024 11:07 pm
by MVWxObserver
CVG reached 64, DAY 63 and CMH 62 today.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2024 4:31 am
by tron777
Good morning! Temps in the 50s this morning on our way up into the 60s the next couple of days. Rain chances begin tonight into tomorrow. Then we will drop from the 50s thru the 40s by Wed afternoon with wind and more showers. Highs in the 30s by Thurs with rain changing to snow showers late Wed night into early Thurs. I am expecting first flakes but no accumulation. The track just isn't going to be good for this thing. A lingering shower Fri otherwise dry over next weekend with highs in the 40s lows in the 30s.
What I see after this... are continued cold fronts diving into the area with rain. We are on the warm side of the storm track with snow cover building nicely to our NW. Can we turn cold in early Dec or not is the ultimate question. Some model runs say yes. We shall see once we get closer.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2024 5:53 am
by Phr0z3n
What a fascinating storm to open the season with. I really like the set up with the trough becoming neg tilt over Ohio. I think temps are going to be marginal for slushy accumulations but the set up is right for rapid intensification east of Ohio. -Nao/-Epo blocking with a nice 50/50 low in place is making this thing look like an inland apps runner with the location of the intensification.
IMG_1069.png
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2024 6:05 am
by tron777
The draw backs are not only is it November, but the bigger issue is one that Bgoney had brought up the other day. The western ridge or PNA domain. Too bad that we have a system crashing into the west coast at the same time this system is trying to get going over the Lakes / OV region. The track would have been a little further west. I think it's too far NE now. The lake effect area away from the immediate lakeshore should cash in but for the rest of us, I'm not seeing much in the way of accum. Certainly not going to forecast any accum for our forum coverage area. NE Ohio is certainly a little different in terms of forecasting.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2024 8:46 am
by Bgoney
Agree with both of you, an awesome storm to watch unfold. Nice to see North America in the coming week or two at least get into a more traditional late fall pattern . Forecasting will be more challenging with Temperatures for a change more than a week out .
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2024 10:10 am
by tron777
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2024 4:07 pm
by Bgoney
IMG_2638.png
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2024 4:46 pm
by tron777
66 in my hood today. It felt warm! Those 30s by Thursday are going to feel mighty rough! A few flakes will help ease the pain (I hope lol) Anyway, no changes to the ongoing 7 day. Rain tonight into tomorrow morning then a break. Mild temps continue on Tues. Period of showers with the frontal passage on Wed. Wind picks up and falling temps. Snow showers could mix in later Wed night and Thurs. Temps in the 30s. I expect no problems for most minus lake effect areas of course.
In the extended range today, OP and Ensemble models are certainly hinting at a colder pattern late this month and into early December. I see a warmer run with a SE ridge from time to time too, but overall -EPO / +PNA / -NAO pattern continuing with a stretched PV (-AO) Things do look active with a baroclinic sone setting up esp in early December. Looks like some fun and games upcoming if your location is on the right side of the boundary. Too early to tell where it will be but knowing the OV as we do, AV Country will be divided.
MJO is going to deliver this colder pattern into early Dec. But I would expect a warm up as we head into mid Dec based on the MJO phase forecast to be 5-6 in early December. We'll need to keep an eye on that. Christmas is still way off in the distance to get a good handle on things. I can see out to mid December via MJO (and using atmospheric lag response time) to deduce this idea.
EDIT: Per the Aussies, the MJO currently has stalled in very weak Phase 2,. It went from 1 into the COD then back out weakly into 2. So we will see how long this sluggish / weak MJO lasts until it picks back up amplitude again. That should help us to shape up Weeks 2-3 in December.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2024 5:16 pm
by dce
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 4:46 pm
66 in my hood today. It felt warm! Those 30s by Thursday are going to feel mighty rough! A few flakes will help ease the pain (I hope lol) Anyway, no changes to the ongoing 7 day. Rain tonight into tomorrow morning then a break. Mild temps continue on Tues. Period of showers with the frontal passage on Wed. Wind picks up and falling temps. Snow showers could mix in later Wed night and Thurs. Temps in the 30s. I expect no problems for most minus lake effect areas of course.
In the extended range today, OP and Ensemble models are certainly hinting at a colder pattern late this month and into early December. I see a warmer run with a SE ridge from time to time too, but overall -EPO / +PNA / -NAO pattern continuing with a stretched PV (-AO) Things do look active with a baroclinic sone setting up esp in early December. Looks like some fun and games upcoming if your location is on the right side of the boundary. Too early to tell where it will be but knowing the OV as we do, AV Country will be divided.
MJO is going to deliver this colder pattern into early Dec. But I would expect a warm up as we head into mid Dec based on the MJO phase forecast to be 5-6 in early December. We'll need to keep an eye on that. Christmas is still way off in the distance to get a good handle on things. I can see out to mid December via MJO (and using atmospheric lag response time) to deduce this idea.
EDIT: Per the Aussies, the MJO currently has stalled in very weak Phase 2,. It went from 1 into the COD then back out weakly into 2. So we will see how long this sluggish / weak MJO lasts until it picks back up amplitude again. That should help us to shape up Weeks 2-3 in December.
I think we have an excellent chance of accumulating snow. Now these maps are 10:1. We have a warm ground, which I personally think is sometimes overrated, so this will not accumulate to the extent of these maps. But every model is on board for accumulation so I would think 1-2 slushy inches on the grass is definitely a good possibility. As always, we will watch future runs to see if anything changes with the track, etc.....
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2024 5:21 pm
by tron777
Hey Doug! If it comes at night (18Z GFS has a Thurs night into Fri morning affair as an example) then the chances do go up certainly. Track and timing will be key to this as well as elevation, Biggest key will be precip rate in a set up like this. A lot of unknowns still IMO.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2024 5:31 pm
by dce
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 5:21 pm
Hey Doug! If it comes at night (18Z GFS has a Thurs night into Fri morning affair as an example) then the chances do go up certainly. Track and timing will be key to this as well as elevation, Biggest key will be precip rate in a set up like this. A lot of unknowns still IMO.
Right now it looks as if the precip rate should be fairly high. This looks to be a quicker hitter rather than a longer event, which goes in our favor. Still 3 days out, so as we are all used to in the winter time around here, things could change. I like our chances at this point in the game though.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2024 5:38 pm
by Bgoney
Amazing what blocking can do isn’t It. We have a 940s low off the NWcoast, 970s low in the Center of the country and eventually a 970s low off the NEcoast
A few flakes will help ease the pain (I hope lol) Anyway, no changes to the ongoing 7 day. Rain tonight into tomorrow morning then a break. Mild temps continue on Tues. Period of showers with the frontal passage on Wed. Wind picks up and falling temps. Snow showers could mix in later Wed night and Thurs. Temps in the 30s. I expect no problems for most minus lake effect areas of course. 