Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Tim, I made a post in the Atlantic Tropical thread sharing my thoughts for the last leg of the tropical Atlantic season. I still believe that another system will form near the Caribbean. The GFS continues to show a fantasy system down there in early November in fact. No clue where it will go and who might it impact, if any, since it has not formed yet. It is only a model fantasy at this time. However, the model is showing my thoughts perfectly with regards to storm formation.

[tron777]

Can we hit 80 today and tomorrow? It'll be a close one in some areas esp south of the river.

[tpweather]

Can we hit 80 today and tomorrow? It'll be a close one in some areas esp south of the river.

I believe folks southeast of here have a chance say towards Lexington. I believe locally we get in that 75-77 range with the south winds but those should turn to the west in the early afternoon and this will stop the rise in temps. If we just have another 2-4 hours with the south wind I could find it doable but looks like the timing is just off for us to get to 80. After Wednesday we should have near normal temps for the remainder of October. Yes you may have one day with a temp near 70 but also a day of 58. The lows with the continued dry air and ground is keeping the overnight lows at or below normal. Little chance of rain and really if you have your car outside you get that quick shower that just leaves dust on your car.

[tron777]

CVG was at 67 at this time yesterday, 70 right now. 75 was yesterday's high. Using this logic 78 would be the max high which is not 80, but darn close. I had 76 so I could hit 79 IMBY. Agree about the dust Tim. My car is freaking filthy!

[tpweather]

CVG was at 67 at this time yesterday, 70 right now. 75 was yesterday's high. Using this logic 78 would be the max high which is not 80, but darn close. I had 76 so I could hit 79 IMBY. Agree about the dust Tim. My car is freaking filthy!

Hey Les and I was playing golf yesterday and it was around 430 or so and the sun this time of years starts to set to a certain extent. What I mean is we usually don't add to much in temps after 3pm or so and if you have even some high clouds this time of year stops the rise in temps. Still believe 75-77 on Wednesday and that is probably the same today as well. After Wednesday we should be about 2 degree above normal for the month and should end up close to that by the end of October. Afternoon highs for the month are more above but the overnight lows below normal and that is why we are only 2 degrees above normal for the month.

[tron777]

CVG was at 67 at this time yesterday, 70 right now. 75 was yesterday's high. Using this logic 78 would be the max high which is not 80, but darn close. I had 76 so I could hit 79 IMBY. Agree about the dust Tim. My car is freaking filthy!

Hey Les and I was playing golf yesterday and it was around 430 or so and the sun this time of years starts to set to a certain extent. What I mean is we usually don't add to much in temps after 3pm or so and if you have even some high clouds this time of year stops the rise in temps. Still believe 75-77 on Wednesday and that is probably the same today as well. After Wednesday we should be about 2 degree above normal for the month and should end up close to that by the end of October. Afternoon highs for the month are more above but the overnight lows below normal and that is why we are only 2 degrees above normal for the month.

I agree Tim and to your point looking at yesterdays temp rise, CVG leveled out around 2pm. Between 2-5pm there was only a 2 degree rise.

[tron777]

12Z GFS continues to be a slow mover with the front around Halloween... the slowest among the models that I have seen. If this is correct, we would be dry and very warm for the big day. The 12Z Canadian has also slowed things down as the 0Z run had us getting wet on Halloween. 0Z Euro AI has us getting wet on Halloween. Not sure when the next run comes out. We'll see what the 12z Operational Euro does later. I am thinking that the slow idea is the way to go thanks to the ridging that we continue to see and the ongoing drought. It's going to take a very strong front with very strong forcing to bully that ridge.

[Bgoney]

The tree damage has really turned ugly over the last two weeks. Been doing tree removal and pruning dead limbs like crazy. Norway spruce showing significant damage and or dead. Branches that do have green needles, just the slightest bump and they drop also. Trees don’t usually show the worst effects of drought until months later, so this is a situation that will get worse. The damage has already been done , and has been magnified by three straight years of moderate to severe summer/ fall droughts . Good for business but I don’t want this kind of business

[tron777]

76 as of 2pm at CVG.

[Bgoney]

79 cvg. Felt awful toasty today, AC worthy on the drive home

IMG_2473.png

[Bgoney]

12Z GFS continues to be a slow mover with the front around Halloween... the slowest among the models that I have seen. If this is correct, we would be dry and very warm for the big day. The 12Z Canadian has also slowed things down as the 0Z run had us getting wet on Halloween. 0Z Euro AI has us getting wet on Halloween. Not sure when the next run comes out. We'll see what the 12z Operational Euro does later. I am thinking that the slow idea is the way to go thanks to the ridging that we continue to see and the ongoing drought. It's going to take a very strong front with very strong forcing to bully that ridge.

No doubt the trend continues with the EU and AI . Pattern change is slow to reach the OV

[tpweather]

I agree today felt much warmer than yesterday. Southwest wind compared to a east/southeast wind makes a difference in how it feels. Dew points the same as 24 hours ago but it just seemed a lot warmer. Wednesday last truly warm day before we really finish the month out with near normal temps. Except for the really dry month October has been nothing out of the ordinary. Bgoney I agree with you about the drought and its not so much on the amount of rainfall but the time of year means more. Looks at places like parts of the southwest and over in Europe with Spain and Portugal. These folks have their rainy season in the winter so that is why you see plenty of wild fires later in the year along with the lower humidity especially in the southwest. So even if we get above normal rainfall this winter which I expect we will lets hope this continues into the spring and next summer. Having a dry fall is not unusual but having it after a dry late spring and summer is not good. The good thing around here it won't last as we know and its just and area that is not prone to longer term droughts like in other parts of the country,

[tron777]

I hit 78 today, CVG 79 as noted above. I thought we had a shot at 80 even at CVG... very close! We will fall short tomorrow ahead of a cold front due to increasing clouds late day and even a sprinkle or two possible. Still very warm in the 70s. 60s Thurs then back into the 70s on Fri. A small chance for rain then too but good luck with that. Then we cool down for the weekend and shoot right back up into the 70s early next week. We'll see about the Halloween into early Nov period but right now, it is trending warmer and dry. There is a chance that we may have to wait until Election Day or thereabouts for meaningful rainfall. And that's if it doesn't keep getting pushed back.

[Bgoney]

Comparing droughts to other parts of the country is apples to oranges

[tron777]

12Z Euro rainfall for CVG has 0.08" for this coming Fri and that's it for the entire run out to 10 days. I think that's probably too high anyway. Not good in terms of the drought and with leaf droppage occurring now, the fire danger will increase.

[Bgoney]

Cbus hit 80 , possibly 81

[tron777]

We probably would have had one of the driest September's on record if it wasn't for Helene. Check out Rocktober.... I don't see the tropics bailing us out this time! Graphic thanks to the Gummer at Local 12.

October Rainfall.jpg

[tpweather]

I hit 78 today, CVG 79 as noted above. I thought we had a shot at 80 even at CVG... very close! We will fall short tomorrow ahead of a cold front due to increasing clouds late day and even a sprinkle or two possible. Still very warm in the 70s. 60s Thurs then back into the 70s on Fri. A small chance for rain then too but good luck with that. Then we cool down for the weekend and shoot right back up into the 70s early next week. We'll see about the Halloween into early Nov period but right now, it is trending warmer and dry. There is a chance that we may have to wait until Election Day or thereabouts for meaningful rainfall. And that's if it doesn't keep getting pushed back.

Les with the late action in the tropics no doubt its taking a little longer for the pattern to change. We know how the models in later summer can be messed with by the tropics and though I see no action in the USA it still controls the atmosphere in the eastern part of the country. I believe you mentioned at one time we need a big storm to change the pattern and I agree with that 100p/c. Yes it will happen and models will go back and forth the next few days but then one day new info will arrive and bingo a big storm will appear out of nowhere lol. I still believe early November is when we get this bigger storm and yes several days of temps in the lower 50's once this happens. I still believe overall November will be mild but also increasing wet as the month continues. Then do we see that cold shot late in the month or early December that can bring us a nice chance of winter weather early on. Again we are still 9 days away from November and it seems with all the sunny warm days sometimes hard to get into the fall mood like we had last week. I know we need the rain but give me more precip in the winter time and I will take the chance that part of that is in the form or snow.

[Bgoney]

More counties locally were added to disaster designation and for disaster relief qualifications due to our lengthy summer /fall drought

IMG_2474.jpeg

[Bgoney]

We probably would have had one of the driest September's on record if it wasn't for Helene. Check out Rocktober.... I don't see the tropics bailing us out this time! Graphic thanks to the Gummer at Local 12.


October Rainfall.jpg

Awful, top 5 has been in the cards for awhile but if the “phantom” Halloween system is delayed we have a shot at the record

[Bgoney]

In addition to the local counties in our area that have been declared disasters, more counties outside our area in Ohio were added, this all in addition to the counties that were declared a month or two ago, giving to the fact that the ongoing drought already has had substantial effects over a long period and will continue well into the fall and possibly winter even when rains do start to eventually come back

IMG_2475.jpeg

[tron777]

I hit 78 today, CVG 79 as noted above. I thought we had a shot at 80 even at CVG... very close! We will fall short tomorrow ahead of a cold front due to increasing clouds late day and even a sprinkle or two possible. Still very warm in the 70s. 60s Thurs then back into the 70s on Fri. A small chance for rain then too but good luck with that. Then we cool down for the weekend and shoot right back up into the 70s early next week. We'll see about the Halloween into early Nov period but right now, it is trending warmer and dry. There is a chance that we may have to wait until Election Day or thereabouts for meaningful rainfall. And that's if it doesn't keep getting pushed back.

Les with the late action in the tropics no doubt its taking a little longer for the pattern to change. We know how the models in later summer can be messed with by the tropics and though I see no action in the USA it still controls the atmosphere in the eastern part of the country. I believe you mentioned at one time we need a big storm to change the pattern and I agree with that 100p/c. Yes it will happen and models will go back and forth the next few days but then one day new info will arrive and bingo a big storm will appear out of nowhere lol. I still believe early November is when we get this bigger storm and yes several days of temps in the lower 50's once this happens. I still believe overall November will be mild but also increasing wet as the month continues. Then do we see that cold shot late in the month or early December that can bring us a nice chance of winter weather early on. Again we are still 9 days away from November and it seems with all the sunny warm days sometimes hard to get into the fall mood like we had last week. I know we need the rain but give me more precip in the winter time and I will take the chance that part of that is in the form or snow.

I agree Tim and yes I did say that. I believe that the tropics are still not to done and until they are done, the pattern simply isn't going to change. Another factor is the -PDO that is also not helping us to change things up. Still seeing if the MJO can assist later in November. It's the only wildcard that I see right now that may help. (Although it may not just the same. )

[tron777]

In addition to the local counties in our area that have been declared disasters, more counties outside our area in Ohio were added, this all in addition to the counties that were declared a month or two ago, giving to the fact that the ongoing drought already has had substantial effects over a long period and will continue well into the fall and possibly winter even when rains do start to eventually come back



IMG_2475.jpeg

That surprises me about S Michigan. I saw Hillsdale Co on the list and they had such a wet summer! When I was up there over the summer for a relative's high school graduation party, things were very lush and green. Pretty amazing how quickly things can change!

[Bgoney]

In addition to the local counties in our area that have been declared disasters, more counties outside our area in Ohio were added, this all in addition to the counties that were declared a month or two ago, giving to the fact that the ongoing drought already has had substantial effects over a long period and will continue well into the fall and possibly winter even when rains do start to eventually come back



IMG_2475.jpeg

That surprises me about S Michigan. I saw Hillsdale Co on the list and they had such a wet summer! When I was up there over the summer for a relative's high school graduation party, things were very lush and green. Pretty amazing how quickly things can change!

They haven’t got much since beginning of August (-3 to -4”), 3 months is a long time for these regions

[tron777]

Good morning all! 55 here and 58 at CVG so a very warm to start to the day. Can we hit 80 or will we fall short again at CVG / MBY? We shall soon see. No changes guys to the ongoing forecast. The only uncertainty is Halloween and beyond as far as rain chances go.