Absolute Vorticity

BG's video is in progress....

12z GFS for the tropical system once it gets absorbed, has it meandering around the Tenn Valley for a few days with moisture struggling to move into Ohio

TS Helene has formed now. We are tracking it from a tropical standpoint in our tropical sub forum. We will of course continue to use this thread to track its impacts for the OV as we've been doing. Thanks all! This is a direct link to the Atlantic Tropical season thread for those wishing to follow along while it remains over water.

viewtopic.php?t=306&start=275

The 12Z Canadian still looks good. I noticed it's a tad further West then the GFS where Helene makes landfall in FL. I also think the GFS was a tad weaker with Helene at landfall as well versus the Canadian. So there are two differences right there that will help determine the outcome for us by Friday.

The good news is that I just received 0.85" of rain...the bad news is that it only took a little over 30 minutes to come down. Water is running everywhere as it rained too hard to be absorbed. Oh well, at least it's something and I'm NOT complaining!

snowbo wrote: ↑Tue Sep 24, 2024 12:53 pm The good news is that I just received 0.85" of rain...the bad news is that it only took a little over 30 minutes to come down. Water is running everywhere as it rained too hard to be absorbed. Oh well, at least it's something and I'm NOT complaining!

It's been lighter down here but the intensity IMO has been perfect! Oh wow, check it out. A 60% chance of a t-storm watch to be issued from around the Tri-state area on south.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2100.html

T-storm watch in effect from Dayton on south until 8pm.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0681.html

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Indiana
Central and Eastern Kentucky
Southwest Ohio
Tennessee

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until
700 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms will continue to develop
this afternoon across a broad region, with damaging winds and some
hail as the most common hazards.

I agree as we have some strong storms south of Madison,In heading towards the area.

Partly sunny in Dayton. The atmosphere looks like it's getting primed judging by what's going on down in the Louisville area. A tornado warning and severe thunderstorm warnings. Bring on the heavy rain!

dce wrote: ↑Tue Sep 24, 2024 2:11 pm Partly sunny in Dayton. The atmosphere looks like it's getting primed judging by what's going on down in the Louisville area. A tornado warning and severe thunderstorm warnings. Bring on the heavy rain!

I agree with tornado warning southwest of the local area at this time. Got just enough sun to really juice up the atmosphere this afternoon

Could be a rough afternoon rush hour. This is the most excitement today in at least a few months. Don't want the severe weather but love the rain

I agree with you both. Had a little sun here in Mason moments ago as well. CAPE and Shear look good. Lapse rates are steeper SW of our local area where the TOR warned cell is, but isolated severe is certainly possible for our region thru about 7pm. I hope to get home before it hits but knowing my luck, I'll probably be right in it.

Getting hit good at home I am hearing, extremely heavy rain!

Just started raining here as well Les.

Just heard a loud boom of thunder here, this cell is growing fast!

Getting dark here in Mason. I'm sure I'll be driving right into it. Lovely!

Wow!!!! I have not drove thru a storm like that in ages! CG lightning, blinding rain and some small hail too. Looks like we got soaked big time here! CVG now has 2.03" on the day with 1.26" at the Boone Co mesonet site. Over an inch and half here too! Wooo Hoooo!!!

I'm waiting for the 5pm climate report for confirmation, but CVG may have broke a daily rainfall record for today. The record is 1.87" set back in 1972. So we go from a big time drought (which we're still in of course) to breaking a daily rainfall record If Helene works out, could we get another inch or two out of the deal? That would be awesome! As we discussed earlier, we are still seeing model disagreement. But now that the storm has actually formed, its focus should be coming more into view over the next 36 to 48 hours. 12Z Euro gives us over an inch with Helene on Friday and another 1/2" plus with the upper low on Sunday into Mon of next week. Would love to see this pan out!

EDIT: Yep! 2.03" as of the 5pm climate report so a new record!

Wow. I have a dome over the woodpile here near Darrtown. Only 3/8 of an inch so far since Sunday. Grandma Wooly did the wrong dance and all the big stuff is going around us. Lol.

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Maybe some delays but probably no washouts for the 2 games series vs the "Indians" in Cleveland tonight and Wed night. If by chance one of the games need made up, both the Redlegs and "Indians" have a scheduled off day Thurs.

A few wind damage reports out there and even a funnel cloud in our forecast area. I won't post every report just a few of the better ones.

1.4” total here for the two days. Cvg and surroundings had the highest totals for a change. Would love to get south of 71 in Ohio on some better amounts


48 hr totals

1255 UNK 3 E Buckeye Madison KY 3772 8445 Uprooted tree at this location. (LMK)

1653 UNK 2 S Hodgenville Larue KY 3754 8573 2 trees down on Greensburg Road. (LMK)

1656 UNK 1 E Hodgenville Larue KY 3756 8572 Power pole wires damaged. (LMK)

1718 UNK 2 NW Floyds Knobs Floyd IN 3834 8590 Power outage with traffic lights out at the intersection of US150 and Paoli Pike. (LMK)

1730 UNK Springfield Washington KY 3769 8522 Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report with updated time from Springfield. Tree damage and power lines down. (LMK)

1740 Cementville Clark IN 3835 8575 NWS Storm Survey found a EF-0 tornado touched down just NE of the I-65 and I-265 interchange. Sporadic tree damage ... power poles ... and cross members were the main damage. (LMK)

1742 UNK Cementville Clark IN 3835 8575 Tree on a house and power lines down at this location. (LMK)

1743 65 1 SSE Hamburg Clark IN 3837 8576 Dime size hail ... 60 to 65 mph winds ... wall cloud sighted. (LMK)

1746 UNK 1 N Watson Clark IN 3837 8570 A few trees down near Pine View Court. (LMK)

1753 UNK 1 NE Prospect Oldham KY 3836 8559 A few trees down in River Bluff. (LMK)

1754 UNK 1 NNE Prospect Oldham KY 3836 8560 Tree on house at this location. (LMK)

1817 UNK Springfield Washington KY 3769 8522 Tree damage and power lines down. (LMK)

1820 UNK 1 NE La Grange Oldham KY 3841 8537 Large tree limbs and a tree down near Maple Avenue. (LMK)

1841 UNK 6 SE Worthville Owen KY 3855 8500 Multiple trees and power lines down. Time estimated from radar. (ILN)

1846 UNK 6 WSW Burlington Boone KY 3898 8482 Tree down. Time estimated from radar. (ILN)

1850 UNK 3 NNW Maynard Allen KY 3681 8611 Trees down on JW York Road. (LMK)

1851 UNK Vevay Switzerland IN 3875 8507 Large branches down on power lines. Time estimated from radar. (ILN)

1852 UNK Campbellsville Taylor KY 3735 8535 Few trees down within the city limits of Campbellsville. (LMK)

1855 UNK 1 ESE Austin Barren KY 3681 8599 Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report time from 1 ESE Austin. Tree down on Austin Tracy Road. (LMK)

1855 UNK Lucas Barren KY 3689 8603 Few trees down near Barren River Lake. (LMK)

1906 UNK Scottsville Allen KY 3675 8619 A few trees down in downtown Scottsville. (LMK)

1910 UNK 4 NW Maynard Allen KY 3680 8614 Trees down near Old Glasgow Road. (LMK)

1931 UNK 6 WNW Falmouth Pendleton KY 3870 8444 Trees down. Time estimated from radar. (ILN)

1936 UNK Hodgenville Larue KY 3757 8574 A few trees down in Hodgenville. (LMK)

1958 100 Columbia Adair KY 3710 8531 Ongoing at report time. (LMK)

2000 UNK Stanford Lincoln KY 3753 8466 A few large limbs and trees down in Stanford. (LMK)

2012 UNK Elmore Ottawa OH 4147 8329 Tree limbs down on West Elmore Eastern Road. (CLE)

2016 UNK Magnolia Larue KY 3745 8575 Few trees down just north of Magnolia near Highway 31. (LMK)

2016 2 ESE Ligonier Noble IN 4145 8557 Trained spotter reports tornado on the ground with trees down and debris kicked up. Time estimated by radar. (IWX)

2024 UNK 1 WNW Creal Larue KY 3744 8567 Scattered trees down in southeastern Larue County. (LMK)

2029 UNK 4 NE Creal Larue KY 3747 8561 Scattered trees down in eastern Larue County. (LMK)

2030 2 NW Cosperville Noble IN 4151 8550 Trained spotter reports tornado on the ground. (IWX)

2034 2 NW Cosperville Noble IN 4151 8550 Roof ripped off of a pole barn. Time estimated by radar. (IWX)

2036 150 2 NNW Haviland Paulding OH 4105 8459 Time estimated from radar. (IWX)

2039 UNK 4 NE Allendale Taylor KY 3741 8553 Flag pole damaged. (LMK)

2047 2 E Eaton Preble OH 3974 8460 EF0 tornado confirmed. Minor structure and tree damage. Estimated maximum wind speed up to 65 mph. Estimated track length 1.45 miles. (ILN)

2047 UNK 2 E Eaton Preble OH 3974 8459 Roofing off of a barn and other storm damage near the intersection of Route 35 and Yost/Washington Twin Roads. (ILN)

2058 3 NE Oliver Lake Lagrange IN 4160 8537 Spotter reports tornado has hit structures in this area. Time estimated by radar. (IWX)

2114 200 Rockholds Whitley KY 3683 8412 HAM Radio Operator reports 2 inch estimated hail in Rockholds ... with a picture included. (JKL)

2115 UNK 1 SE Wilton Knox KY 3688 8404 Picture of a large uprooted tree on social media across from Wilton Pond along Highway 6. Time estimated via radar. (JKL)

2119 125 1 NNW Cumberland City Clinton KY 3682 8508 Half dollar sized hail reported near Cumberland City. (LMK)

2122 UNK 1 NNW Susie Wayne KY 3679 8496 Wayne County dispatch reported a tree blown down onto KY-834 West approximately a mile north of the intersection with KY-90. (JKL)

2125 175 Cumberland City Clinton KY 3680 8507 (LMK)

2125 UNK 2 NE Gray Knox KY 3696 8399 Social media post of a snapped power pole along Sam Parker Road in Knox County. Time estimated via radar. (JKL)

2132 UNK Georgetown St. Joseph IN 4173 8622 Delayed report. Numerous large tree limbs downed in the Arlington Heights subdivision ... along with some roof damage to a residence. Time estimated from radar. (IWX)

2145 100 Cane Creek Laurel KY 3706 8392 A public social media reported of quarter sized hail relayed by Amateur Radio. (JKL)

2157 UNK 2 NNW Mishawaka St. Joseph IN 4170 8618 Report of many large branches down. Possible tornado. Time estimated by radar. (IWX)

2205 150 Grace Clay KY 3720 8387 Social media picture of estimated 1.5 inch hail in Fogertown. Time via radar. (JKL)

2211 200 Treadway Clay KY 3724 8379 Picture on social media of about 2 inch wide hailstones along Laurel Heights Road. Time estimated via radar. (JKL)

2212 175 Alpine Pulaski KY 3692 8452 Photo on social media of golf ball sized hail in Alpine. (JKL)

2212 200 1 SW Burning Springs Clay KY 3724 8381 A picture was received via social media of hail of at least egg size near Burning Springs. (JKL)

2228 300 Bark Camp Whitley KY 3691 8425 A picture was received of at least 3 inch diameter hail from the Bee Creek community along KY 1193 in the vicinity of Bark Camp. The event time is radar estimated. (JKL)

2230 200 1 ESE Bark Camp Whitley KY 3690 8424 A public report with a picture was relayed by an Amateur radio operator in the Bee Creek community southeast of Bark Camp. The event time is radar estimated. (JKL)

2231 UNK 2 ESE Rye Whitley KY 3692 8416 Social media report of trees down on power lines and a broken power pole. Time estimated via radar. (JKL)

2236 125 2 SSE Rye Whitley KY 3690 8417 A picture of hail was received from southwest of Corbin along Cumberland Falls Hwy. The event time is radar estimated. (JKL)

2240 100 North Corbin Laurel KY 3696 8409 Video on social media of quarter-sized hail falling behind the KFC in North Corbin. Time estimated via radar. (JKL)

2250 175 Gray Knox KY 3694 8401 (JKL)

2250 100 Tiffin Seneca OH 4111 8317 (CLE)

1150 UNK 6 ENE Laurelville Hocking OH 3950 8263 Several trees down near South Perry ... Ohio. A barn roof was also damaged. Time estimated from radar. (ILN)

1153 UNK 8 ENE Laurelville Hocking OH 3952 8260 Trees down from Big Cola Road/180 intersection all the way into Laurelville. Time estimated from radar. (ILN)

CVG reached 80, DAY 77 and CMH 78 today.

Good morning all! A few storms in our SE counties in KY this morning otherwise the rest of us are dry. Where skies cleared look for some patchy dense fog as well. Rain chances look low today and tomorrow then all eyes are on Helene by Friday on into early next week as we continue to track her leftovers as well as the interaction with an upper low to our West.

0Z NAM brings the center a little more west thru Atlanta GA into TN, SKY then it moves NW (due to the upper low interaction) towards Evansville, IN then into NE AR where the model run ends. The GFS is a tad further East but virtually shows that same process taking place. The CMC is a little different stalling the low over SC KY for a bit before moving off to the East so we'd get more rain out of it that way. Finally the Euro is like the Canadian but the low stalls over Western TN instead so less rain for us. We'll see! This system should wrap up Sept and kick off October for the most part.