May 2024 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Good morning and already very warm and my temp forecast is down the drain. Already 77 at 10am so mid-80's no problem even if we get a few hours of clouds building up in the early afternoon. Going to be busy this week though the plains will be the prime area early on in the week. Have a great Sunday and today is the first day it feels like summer.

[tron777]

Agreed Tim and it was nice to not be in the jackpot zone for once. Had to put some Seven Dust and some slug pellets out on some of the garden plants this morning. It's been good for those kinds of critters to flourish with the wet ground and mild nights we've been having. Grass is soaked due to the fog! So, the lawn will have to wait to be mowed. Anyway, going out to my Brother's today to catch a couple of the boys baseball games then we are having a fish fry after that. At least with the dry weather thru Tuesday, there should be plenty of time to get the grass mowed.

I was wondering if anyone else was having this problem in the garden. It’s been a real slugfest here as well. Been picking them off every morning before work. I’ve never had them this bad, as you said it’s been perfect conditions for the slimy critters

I usually have to deal with them most years but never this early in the season and never this bad as you mentioned. As we both know, lots of rain and all of the 80 degree temps that we have seen along with warm overnight lows and it's the perfect recipe!

[tron777]

Good morning and already very warm and my temp forecast is down the drain. Already 77 at 10am so mid-80's no problem even if we get a few hours of clouds building up in the early afternoon. Going to be busy this week though the plains will be the prime area early on in the week. Have a great Sunday and today is the first day it feels like summer.

About ready to get the lawn mowing started before it gets any hotter outside. Weatherwise, we look to be on the quiet side until Wed afternoon at this point.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and could this be an outbreak of the Derecho. Several factors in getting these and some of those no doubt coming together. Need high pressure getting stronger somewhere in the USA and this looks to be over the southeast but also edging northward into our area. Need moisture that comes up from the gom but works around this high pressure which is happening. Then getting some energy from the northwest that is able to tap that moisture along with the hot air being pumped northward and you can get a nice zone of thunderstorms that can head southeast very quickly. We have many factors in favor so will need to keep an eye on the radar this week. These are not usually tornado type systems but very strong straight line winds that can exceed 100 mph and can do quite the damage as these winds tend to be very close to the ground.

[tron777]

Mid 80s already as of 1pm and I feel it! Finally got my outdoor chores done. Time to cool off in the A/C. The upper 80s will not be a problem since we hit the mid 80s so easily today already. Could we get a sneaky 90? I will not forecast it but I am raising my call to 87 or even 88 for Monday and Tuesday. Then, all eyes on Wed afternoon and evening locally to see what happens with the next frontal system and the potential for strong to severe storms. The SPC has us outlooked now for Day 4 which is Wed.

day4prob.gif

[MVWxObserver]

Agreed Tim and it was nice to not be in the jackpot zone for once. Had to put some Seven Dust and some slug pellets out on some of the garden plants this morning. It's been good for those kinds of critters to flourish with the wet ground and mild nights we've been having. Grass is soaked due to the fog! So, the lawn will have to wait to be mowed. Anyway, going out to my Brother's today to catch a couple of the boys baseball games then we are having a fish fry after that. At least with the dry weather thru Tuesday, there should be plenty of time to get the grass mowed.

I was wondering if anyone else was having this problem in the garden. It’s been a real slugfest here as well. Been picking them off every morning before work. I’ve never had them this bad, as you said it’s been perfect conditions for the slimy critters

Hey guys,

I've read in the past that a shallow bowl of beer can help to eliminate slugs e.g.

[tron777]

Agreed Tim and it was nice to not be in the jackpot zone for once. Had to put some Seven Dust and some slug pellets out on some of the garden plants this morning. It's been good for those kinds of critters to flourish with the wet ground and mild nights we've been having. Grass is soaked due to the fog! So, the lawn will have to wait to be mowed. Anyway, going out to my Brother's today to catch a couple of the boys baseball games then we are having a fish fry after that. At least with the dry weather thru Tuesday, there should be plenty of time to get the grass mowed.

I was wondering if anyone else was having this problem in the garden. It’s been a real slugfest here as well. Been picking them off every morning before work. I’ve never had them this bad, as you said it’s been perfect conditions for the slimy critters

Hey guys,

I've read in the past that a shallow bowl of beer can help to eliminate slugs e.g.

I remember my Dad putting a small amount of beer inside of a beer cap when I was a kid growing up for that very reason. I prefer to use chemicals these days.

[MVWxObserver]

Good morning and already very warm and my temp forecast is down the drain. Already 77 at 10am so mid-80's no problem even if we get a few hours of clouds building up in the early afternoon. Going to be busy this week though the plains will be the prime area early on in the week. Have a great Sunday and today is the first day it feels like summer.

I had sweat rolling down my face yesterday as I was helping my Dad set up some lawn furniture on my folks and I's patio area. Yesterday it got to 81 at DAY and CMH had 85.

[MVWxObserver]

Currently 82 here in G'ville and progged to top out at around 87.

UPDATE: Now 86 in G'ville and 85 DAY.

[tron777]

85 as of 3pm at CVG, 86 here. With a light NW wind, the dews are in the upper 50s so not too bad humidity wise today.

[MVWxObserver]

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...

Widespread damaging winds expected with scattered significant gusts to 90 mph likely

Widespread large hail expected with scattered very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely

A few tornadoes possible

[MVWxObserver]

CVG, DAY and CMH all got to 88 today.

[MVWxObserver]

----

[tron777]

Good morning all! A couple of very warm days ahead with increasing humidity with highs in the upper 80s. Then we are already under a slight risk for severe wx on Wed (Day 3) from the SPC. We have been mentioning Wed afternoon and evening as a time period to keep our eyes on for quite sometime. That has not changed, only increased. An active period is ahead with rain and t-storm chances looking fairly high for Thurs and Fri with high chance POPS for the upcoming Holiday Weekend. It won't rain all the time mind you, but some times it will so I would start preparing for a Plan B with regards to your outdoor plans just in case. We will be posting in more detail as time goes on with the Wed and beyond period so stay tuned! This post is meant as an overall summation of the next week or so and starting on Wed it certainly is looking active.

[Trevor]

It’ll all come down to placement and timing of features, but I see multiple severe risks and heavy flash flooding rains possible over the next 7+ days across the region. Stormy indeed, Les!

[tron777]

It’ll all come down to placement and timing of features, but I see multiple severe risks and heavy flash flooding rains possible over the next 7+ days across the region. Stormy indeed, Les!

Yes Sir! I can't believe the ramp up in storminess on the overnight models. Rainfall amounts from the GFS and Euro are on the order of 4" + using CVG as a guide. Wed looks interesting for a high wind threat and then after that I think it's all about trying to pinpoint where the frontal boundary is located at with regards to where the heaviest rain falls on a given day. Glad we are seeing the warm temps right now to allow things to dry out a bit before we get more rain.

[tron777]

If the 0Z Euro is right, watch for an MCS on Memorial Day as a low moves right thru the region. Just one of many waves of t-storms that we will be tracking this week and into next.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and another warm day though the dew points not bad but starting Wednesday that changes and we are off to the races. Very busy period and models for sometime have been pointing towards a stormy period and though the last few days was a little more hesitant it looks like they are back on the bandwagon so buckle down for several days. No all day rains but when it rains it can be quite heavy.

Models tend to have troubles in forecasting rain totals in this set up and sometimes has a widespread total very high. Usually what happens you can lower the overall totals but some places will make up for that with very heavy rain. I would probably go with 1-3 inches through the holiday and most likely the lower number for most but some places will pass the 3 inch mark. Where is almost impossible to forecast this far out and really each day we will need to monitor the situation.

I am heading to Nashville on Thursday and will be there for a wedding on Friday and then back home for a local wedding on Saturday and then a Reds ballgame on Sunday.

[tron777]

Hey Tim, good morning! Rainfall distribution is always tough in convective set up's as we all know. Just last week, 4"+ of rain fell like 10 miles to my south and that was the day that we only got like a tenth of an inch. We'll just have to wait and see how widespread the coverage is once it develops. All we can do is give folks a heads up with the forecast, which we do very well on here, and let the chips fall where they may.

[tron777]

[tron777]

77 / 63 as of 10am at CVG. Yesterday at this same time, it was 77 / 62 so since CVG reached 87 yesterday for the high, I would expect a similar reading today. PWATS are still low and the juicer dews are still off to the West. 87 maybe even 88 IMO is reachable at CVG today. I expect similar readings for Tues even though dews will be a bit higher. My reasoning here is even warmer 850 temps as well as higher 500 MB heights ahead of our Wed. cold front.

[tron777]

Concerning Wed and the possible severe wx event... if you watched BG's video (or looked at the models), we will see a dying line of storms moving in Wed morning. How long does it take that to clear out? Do the storms weaken quickly and what about the extent of cloud cover? We'll have to wait and see what happens Wed morning. If we can destabilize, it'll be game on! The front gets down towards the OH River and stalls and the GFS looks pretty messy in terms of morning rain and clouds. The latest NAM, 12Z run, has the AM activity weakening long before it even gets here so we can destabilize easily for afternoon t-storm development as the front pushes into the region. 12Z HRRR stops at 8am Wed and there is a weakening line of showers pushing into the region when the model stops. So which of these scenarios is going to be correct? It is just too early to know right now and we'll have to keep an eye on future hires models as well as some good old fashioned nowcasting on Wed itself.

[MVWxObserver]

Good Morning and another warm day though the dew points not bad but starting Wednesday that changes and we are off to the races. Very busy period and models for sometime have been pointing towards a stormy period and though the last few days was a little more hesitant it looks like they are back on the bandwagon so buckle down for several days. No all day rains but when it rains it can be quite heavy.

Models tend to have troubles in forecasting rain totals in this set up and sometimes has a widespread total very high. Usually what happens you can lower the overall totals but some places will make up for that with very heavy rain. I would probably go with 1-3 inches through the holiday and most likely the lower number for most but some places will pass the 3 inch mark. Where is almost impossible to forecast this far out and really each day we will need to monitor the situation.

I am heading to Nashville on Thursday and will be there for a wedding on Friday and then back home for a local wedding on Saturday and then a Reds ballgame on Sunday.

"Two Weddings and a Ballgame" starring Tim and his wife e.g.

[MVWxObserver]

It was temps on the 8's yesterday as CVG, DAY and CMH all reached 88!

[tron777]

Good Morning and another warm day though the dew points not bad but starting Wednesday that changes and we are off to the races. Very busy period and models for sometime have been pointing towards a stormy period and though the last few days was a little more hesitant it looks like they are back on the bandwagon so buckle down for several days. No all day rains but when it rains it can be quite heavy.

Models tend to have troubles in forecasting rain totals in this set up and sometimes has a widespread total very high. Usually what happens you can lower the overall totals but some places will make up for that with very heavy rain. I would probably go with 1-3 inches through the holiday and most likely the lower number for most but some places will pass the 3 inch mark. Where is almost impossible to forecast this far out and really each day we will need to monitor the situation.

I am heading to Nashville on Thursday and will be there for a wedding on Friday and then back home for a local wedding on Saturday and then a Reds ballgame on Sunday.

"Two Weddings and a Ballgame" starring Tim and his wife e.g.

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