Absolute Vorticity

CVG got to 47, DAY 49 and CMH 45 today.

Marginal risk has been trimmed back and further south.

Good morning folks! A nice frost this morning with a low of 31 at CVG, and the same for my hood. No changes really to the forecast. Dry and sunny today, more frost tomorrow morning (although not expected to be as widespread as today) and some sunshine also with increasing clouds later in the day. Tim's golf game should be just fine. Expecting rain / t-storm chances to arrive Sun evening ending early Mon morning. Rainfall amounts are expected to be light with this system (warm front).

Then you know about the Eclipse Day forecast already so moving on.... rain and t-storm chances return Mon ight thru Fri of next week. The highest chances right now look to be Tues afternoon and night, Wed / Thurs time period also. Not sure on severe wx yet. It'll depend on the track of the low. Get your lawns mowed this weekend is all I can say.

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
SUNDAY...
...FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS MORNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost
formation.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Indiana,
northeast and northern Kentucky and south central, southwest
and west central Ohio.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left
uncovered.

Low to mid 50s across the region at the lunch hour on this sunny, but coolish Saturday. N Winds 10 to 15 mph will put a nip in the air. Should be good for mowing this afternoon I hope. Waiting for the combination of the sun and wind to dry out the big hill some in the backyard before I get started.

12Z GFS continues to show wet conditions at times from Mon night thru Friday of next week. Then we start to warm up next weekend. I was going to go completely dry next weekend but this run of the GFS shows a warm front approaching Sun morning next weekend (the 14th) now for a small rain chance. So we'll have to get the timing of that next system ironed out. Active is the key word and wet for the medium and longer term forecasts. Localized flooding I think becomes an issue. Ohio River already under flood warnings for minor flooding cresting tomorrow. But they will go back up again IMO next week, depending on how much rain falls upstream (for the Ohio). Severe wx TBD as the mesoscale features come more into view from a timing perspective as time goes on. Stay tuned to AV guys. The weather pattern will not be boring for a while!

Looks like for the time being the main meat / potatoes severe set up is the Southern corridor of the country.

If those above maps pan out, then we will be on the northern side of these storm tracks and it'll be a heavy rain event only with limited thunder.

LOL @ the fantasy 12Z GFS! Perfect phased system though Days 11-12. Too bad it isn't January number 1 and number 2 too bad it is Days 11 and 12.

Beautiful weather today for a curbside meal. My folks and I had lunch on opening day for the season at an eatery Jim's Drive-In not far from our 'hood and the parking lot was nearly packed with both eclipse tourists and locals. They're a city landmark and famed for their homemade root beer.

Whew! Took me 2 1/2 hours but it is done! I am ready for the rain! Mowed, trimmed, and edged the lawn.

Good Sunday morning to you all! 36 this morning at CVG, 34 here with a light frost. A lovely day on tap with the 60s for all areas. Get your lawns mowed if you need too as you know the ongoing wet forecast that is upcoming next week. Rain / storms move in this evening and overnight ending tomorrow. Amounts look light in most areas with isolated exceptions being if any decent t-storms come into play before they fizzle out completely. This is in association with the warm front that moves in giving us a mild eclipse day. See eclipse thread for wx discussion on Monday.

Then, We have a 70% chance Tues, an 80% chance Wed and a 90% chance on Thurs for rain and storms. I think we could pick up another 1-2" in the process. Local flooding issues will continue. Next weekend right now is looking gorgeous in the upper 60s to low 70s. At this time, the SPC has all severe weather concerns to our West and South.

Next front comes in around the 15th, another by the 20th and another gathering over the Rockies by the 2rd. I do not see a very warm pattern due to all of the active fronts passing thru keeping a lot more clouds in place. We will warm up with each front then cool down for only a day or two behind. I do not see a sustainable cold pattern right now like what we just went thru. Yet I am hearing talk of a ridge and much warmer temps coming second half of April, I do not see it yet. I think we stay active.

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CVG reached 58, DAY 56 and CMH 54 yesterday.

CVG got to 65, DAY 62 and CMH 63 today.

We have had a few showers this morning, but nothing major here. Now we await the sky cover once the sun comes up and we can track that in our eclipse thread. Clouds will increase late today / tonight ahead of our rain maker tomorrow, Wed, Thurs, and ending early Fri in my opinion.

Over the Upper OH Valley vicinity, a synoptically favorable corridor of organized severe may develop just ahead of the deepening surface cyclone. Primary uncertainty is with the actual spatial extent of any severe threat that can develop midday into the afternoon, given a moderate amount of spread in timing the cyclone track. For now, have highlighted the overall consensus region where the combination of weak buoyancy and a meridional supercell wind profile appears most probable.

Currently 72 here in G'ville and 71 in DAY.

Both CVG / CMH reached 75 and DAY 73 on Total Solar Eclipse Day.

I heard on the WDTN2 weather that ILN may have a wind advisory or even a high wind warning possibly for Thurs night and Fri.

Good morning! So thankful that we had nice wx for the eclipse. Game over now! Look for rain and t-storms on and off today thru Friday. Highest chances look to be Wed and Thurs. SPC has us outlooked for severe wx also on Thurs. A slight risk for folks along and SE of I-71 and a marginal risk NW of I-71.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Apr 09, 2024 12:13 am I heard on the WDTN2 weather that ILN may have a wind advisory or even a high wind warning possibly for Thurs night and Fri.

I could see maybe a wind advisory at most but currently don't see speeds high enough for a warning.

61 at CVG right now. Temps look to pretty much stay put thanks to clouds and eventual showers moving in from the SW.

Good Morning and what a nice 3 days trip seeing the eclipse. Looks like lots of homework in the weather department since I missed 3 straight days and sort of nice to get away from the weather for a period of time.