March 2024 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

Total for event here .80”. Regional totals

IMG_1563.jpeg

You can kind of pick out the storms that were supercells by some of the heavier rain amounts and their paths , but especially evident(supercells ) by the hail track reports in the OV

IMG_1564.jpeg

[tron777]

Code: Select all

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
155 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...EF2 TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR ORCHARD ISLAND IN LOGAN COUNTY
OHIO...

The National Weather Service office in Wilmington OH has confirmed
at least high-end EF2 tornadic damage near Orchard Island in
Logan County Ohio. Survey teams are currently conducting a storm
survey in the area and in locations around Lakeview. Additional
information will be made available once the survey teams have
reviewed the scope of the damage. The survey is in relation to
the severe thunderstorms that moved through the area on March 14,
2024.

A final assessment including results of the survey are expected
to be completed and transmitted via a Public Information
Statement by within the next few days.

The storm survey information will also be available on our
website at http://www.weather.gov/iln

[Bgoney]

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
342 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...EF3 TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR LAKEVIEW IN LOGAN COUNTY OHIO...

Upon additional analysis and review, the National Weather Service
office in Wilmington OH has confirmed an EF3 tornado in Lakeview
in Logan County, Ohio. This is the same tornado that was
responsible for the damage in the Orchard Island area. Additional
information will be made available once the survey teams have
reviewed the scope of the damage. The survey is in relation to the
severe thunderstorms that moved through the area on March 14,
2024.

A final assessment including results of the survey are expected
to be completed and transmitted via a Public Information
Statement by within the next few days.

The storm survey information will also be available on our
website at http://www.weather.gov/iln

$$

[tron777]

At CVG, we are +0.41" for March rainfall so far. I like that part. Temps above normal of course. High of 57 today which occurred at midnight. We should be able to get down into the 30s by morning if the clouds clear out in time. No frost expected. Sun night and Mon nights are the hard freeze nights with mid to upper 20s expected. That should briefly slow things down but probably too little too late.

[tron777]

I expect a dry weekend with a nice day tomorrow in the 60s and cooler Sunday with a dry frontal passage and the low 50s. Nasty on Monday, not due too precip but to chilly air in the 30s and cloudy, breezy... then we slowly warm up into the 60s again by next Thursday. Our next significant system of note is around Thurs night and Fri next week with some rain. That system doesn't look too bad right now. 25-26th time frame concerns me for severe wx and again towards the end of the month. Last week of March looks busy around here tracking t-storms in my opinion.

[MVWxObserver]

https://www.whio.com/news/local/ef-1-to ... 2XWBY2PVQ/

Four tornadoes confirmed in the Miami Valley e.g.

A NWS survey team has concluded that an EF2 tornado did some damage near Bradford, OH in Darke and Miami Cos.

My cousin David, whom he, his wife, and their 3 grandkids reside in rural Greenville on Cox Road near Hunter Road and a tornado went over their house, thankfully not touching down. They have a small bathroom and took shelter there. They also had to fill their bath tub with water because their area is prone to power failures and they did lose power for a while. David said they could hear the roaring winds and the house vibrated as the storm went over.

Another Greenville cousin named Dennis, David's bro, was coming home from work and had picked up his car in Piqua, OH as he normally does. He was able to take shelter in a basement at a gasoline station in Gettysburg, OH that his son Austin's ex-wife's mother owns.

My cousin Phillip, David's grandson, works at the Whistle Stop restaurant in Ansonia, OH and the eatery closed early due to the pending storms and Phillip took shelter in a basement with his girlfriend Asia and her family at Asia's house.

So very thankful that my folks and I and our extended family loved ones made it through okay.

Prayers and thoughts with those directly impacted by the destructive storms.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 57, DAY 59 and CMH 62 in the predawn today.

[MVWxObserver]

Thurs 3/14/24

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/240314_rpts.gif

[Bgoney]

To many trees and shrubs currently in bloom to list . Still about 3 weeks ahead of schedule in the plant progression stage. Temps forecast for mid to upper 20s , depends on the plant sensitivity and stage if blooms will be affected. Some surely will if it’s a heavy frost.
I did have to mow certain areas last week, another first ever occurrence this early. So many record “firsts” over the last few years….. with inevitably more to come

IMG_1565.jpeg

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a nice chilly start on our way to temps somewhere near 60. That sounds great but the winds will pick up ahead of a cold front so sunny but somewhat windy will make it feel a little cooler. Just in the past week the trees are a blooming along with the grass so allergies have been bad for this early in the season.

Rainfall this year looking good locally and the only places I see having some problems is the central and northern plains and without much snow this winter I am sure lakes and creeks are below normal for this time of year. They look to get busy though over the 2nd half of March and hopefully they can erase some of the deficit. If locally we can just get and average amount of rainfall each month through June I will be happy as we are about 20p/c above normal for the year and that helped out with the short term drought last year.

[tron777]

Hade a nice frost here this morning. Still not mowing yet. I probably will have too next week ahead of the end of next week's system. CVG got down to 30, 29 here.

[tron777]

Code: Select all

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
935 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...UPDATE ON TORNADO CONFIRMATIONS FROM MARCH 14...

The National Weather Service in Wilmington OH has completed its
first day of storm surveys following the severe weather event on
March 14.

While there are no immediate plans for additional surveys,
National Weather Service staff will continue to assess information
provided to us by local and state officials, Emergency Management
Agencies, and weather spotters. This process is expected to take
several days. Numerous long-track tornadoes have occurred, and our
continued analysis will work to determine if some of these long
swaths of damage are the result of a single tornado or multiple
separate tornadoes.

At this time, seven areas of tornadic damage have been identified
within the NWS Wilmington OH coverage area. This count may change
as we continue to assess the continuity of the damage.

* EF1 in Switzerland County IN and Carroll County KY. This tornado
  began further west in Indiana and additional information will
  follow after coordination with NWS Louisville KY.

* EF1 in western Mercer County OH, west of Celina.

* EF1 in eastern Mercer County OH and western Auglaize County OH,
  west of Wapakoneta.

* EF3 beginning in southern Auglaize County OH near Fryburg, 
  continuing through the Lakeview area in northern Logan County 
  OH.

* EF2 in central Union County OH near Broadway.

* EF1 beginning in central Delaware County OH, continuing through
  north-central Licking County OH.

* EF2 in Darke County OH and Miami County OH. This tornado began
  in Indiana and additional information will follow after
  coordination with NWS Indianapolis IN.

Final details on these tornadoes, including track statistics and
estimated maximum wind speeds, will be released as our analysis
continues over the next several days.

$$

HATZOS

[MVWxObserver]

https://www.whio.com/news/local/ef-1-to ... 2XWBY2PVQ/

https://www.whio.com/news/local/5-torna ... INCXTZZDQ/

https://www.whio.com/news/local/5-homes ... U3RUC4DTU/

5 homes destroyed and dozens of others damaged in Darke Co e.g.

[tron777]

12Z GFS has our next system coming in on Friday, then we get colder and have a snow to rain maker on the 26th. Then by the 30th rain to snow. So Cincinnati...

[tron777]

62 for my high so far. CVG 61 A nice day in progress with a nice breeze too.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG / DAY / CMH all got to 62 today.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a nice crisp start to the day. Sunny but the winds will be up and temps maybe make it to 50 so not as nice compared to Saturday. The week in whole will have temps below normal but precip chances slim though maybe a flurry or sprinkle on Monday. System towards the end of the week looks light but then the week of the 25th looks like a typical late March period with a system to the west bringing some moist warm air for us and most likely a big snowstorm for the upper plains. They have had very little snow this season so this helps somewhat. Severe weather and just a little early to figure that out but locally we may get some decent rains that week which would be nice.

[Bgoney]

NWflow for the week certainly means a dryer than normal spell , at least 7 days, maybe up to 10 as return moisture into the OV is the last region to to get return flow out of the GOM .

[MVWxObserver]

HAPPY ST. PATRICK'S DAY AV!! ERIN GO BRAGH!!

[tpweather]

NWflow for the week certainly means a dryer than normal spell , at least 7 days, maybe up to 10 as return moisture into the OV is the last region to to get return flow out of the GOM .

I agree though I believe the moisture comes back in a tad faster than models show. We are sitting in good shape moisture wise at this time and if we continue just to get our normal amounts we are in good shape. I am more concern about the central and northern plains as they really can use the rain/snow and if they stay well below normal precip wise this can lead to an early heat wave which of course can spread east. Still way to early of course and hopefully through April the central plains get above normal precip totals and through May for the northern plains. Much of the south across the nation is in good shape and the east coast in wonderful shape.

Last year we started out wet but once spring started through late fall we were rather dry. Winter has helped out but getting rains in the spring and early summer is more important as crops are planted and everything else is needing water as well.

[tron777]

Happy St. Patrick's Day to you all and good morning! Precip looks to get active again after the 25th or so with multiple cold fronts moving in then getting stuck over us / TN Valley area.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 52, DAY 49 and CMH 51 on St. Patrick's Day.

[tron777]

A cool morning in the U20s to L30sacross the area. A few snow showers are still possible this afternoon and evening. No issues are expected. A seasonal week temp wise in thew 40s and 50s for highs, with the 20s and 30s for lows. Not much precip until we get towards Friday and even that system is looking week.

The week after next looks busy with rain / t-storms sometime in the 25-26th range then another system around the 28th or so. An early look at Easter and if nothing changes, we look good. Nice and dry with highs 65 to 70 is my current prelim call.

[Trevor]

A cool morning in the U20s to L30sacross the area. A few snow showers are still possible this afternoon and evening. No issues are expected. A seasonal week temp wise in thew 40s and 50s for highs, with the 20s and 30s for lows. Not much precip until we get towards Friday and even that system is looking week.

The week after next looks busy with rain / t-storms sometime in the 25-26th range then another system around the 28th or so. An early look at Easter and if nothing changes, we look good. Nice and dry with highs 65 to 70 is my current prelim call.

I expect to see some reports of thunder/lightning today. We will have some CAPE to work with given the temperature differential between the surface and aloft.

Best coverage of show showers will be north and northeast of town but I think many areas locally will see some flakes at some point today.

[tron777]

Here's what the boys are thinking:


.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A sharp trough with very cold air aloft will pivot through the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today. With a strong northwesterly fetch
off Lake Michigan and steep lapse rates under the cold pool
aloft, scattered to numerous snow showers are expected,
especially from midday through the afternoon. Temperatures will
be tricky, with highs likely reaching the upper 30s to low
40s... but temperatures in the snow showers could briefly dip
to the low- mid 30s.

Expecting relatively warm pavement temperatures today, so main
concern will be quick drops in visibility under the most
vigorous showers. Can`t rule out a few tenths of temporary
accumulation on grassy areas... but this will quickly melt due
to the above-freezing ground.