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Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2024 11:16 am
by tron777
Here is an illustration of what I just posted with regards to the 12Z GFS. The first map is valid for early afternoon Thurs and the second for early afternoon on Friday.
gfs_z500_vort_us_18.png
gfs_z500_vort_us_22.png
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2024 11:51 am
by tron777
12Z Canadian is a strung out weak piece of junk. Barely any snow for anyone showing up on this run.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2024 12:00 pm
by tron777
12Z GEFS members don't even looked as amp'ed up as they once were either. I don't really care for the trends I am noticing to be honest with you guys.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2024 12:02 pm
by tron777
12Z UKIE also coming in very weak with this system.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2024 1:01 pm
by tron777
13 now IMBY, 12 at CVG as of 1pm. 12Z Euro is running now so we'll see what it shows here soon.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2024 1:14 pm
by dce
Happy Birthday Eric! You make this forum so much fun! God bless!
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2024 1:30 pm
by tron777
0.19" of QPF at CVG from the 12Z Euro for Thurs and Fri. I guess we could call it snow TV lol Two separate areas of snow, both are weak. It just seems like Deja Vu with this system, but since we have nothing else to keep an eye on, may as well continue to post on this system.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2024 2:49 pm
by winterstormjoe
tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 1:30 pm
0.19" of QPF at CVG from the 12Z Euro for Thurs and Fri. I guess we could call it snow TV lol Two separate areas of snow, both are weak. It just seems like Deja Vu with this system, but since we have nothing else to keep an eye on, may as well continue to post on this system.
Les, I think we're just going to have to wait till after the warm-up and reload later in January to see how the active STJ works with the Arctic air masses? Hopefully, it won't be suppression city again the next go around!
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2024 2:49 pm
by tron777
12Z EPS has about 0.15" on the mean for the Thurs / Fri system.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2024 2:50 pm
by winterstormjoe
Eric, happy birthday on this very cold day! Enjoy your day!
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2024 2:52 pm
by tron777
winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 2:49 pm
Les, I think we're just going to have to wait till after the warm-up and reload later in January to see how the active STJ works with the Arctic air masses? Hopefully, it won't be suppression city again the next go around!
I agree Joe. My current thoughts are that we will warm up and probably get some rain and a break from the cold weather after 1/22 but that break looks to be short lived. I am thinking 5 to maybe 7 days. Towards the end of the month and into early February continues to look cold again with an active STJ. Just hope the stars can align for us.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2024 3:01 pm
by winterstormjoe
tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 2:52 pm
winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 2:49 pm
Les, I think we're just going to have to wait till after the warm-up and reload later in January to see how the active STJ works with the Arctic air masses? Hopefully, it won't be suppression city again the next go around!
I agree Joe. My current thoughts are that we will warm up and probably get some rain and a break from the cold weather after 1/22 but that break looks to be short lived. I am thinking 5 to maybe 7 days. Towards the end of the month and into early February continues to look cold again with an active STJ. Just hope the stars can align for us.
Like what's been discussed on here before, it's that needle and thread with the AV land, either it's too suppressed or we're on that line where it's rain, ice, sleet and/or snow giving us headaches. I still believe that we'll see at least two good snows this winter!
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2024 3:05 pm
by tron777
winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 3:01 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 2:52 pm
winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 2:49 pm
Les, I think we're just going to have to wait till after the warm-up and reload later in January to see how the active STJ works with the Arctic air masses? Hopefully, it won't be suppression city again the next go around!
I agree Joe. My current thoughts are that we will warm up and probably get some rain and a break from the cold weather after 1/22 but that break looks to be short lived. I am thinking 5 to maybe 7 days. Towards the end of the month and into early February continues to look cold again with an active STJ. Just hope the stars can align for us.
Like what's been discussed on here before, it's that needle and thread with the AV land, either it's too suppressed or we're on that line where it's rain, ice, sleet and/or snow giving us headaches. I still believe that we'll see at least two good snows this winter!
Oh I'm with you. We still have a month and a half yet to go with legit snow climo. We're only to the half way point of the winter season so there is certainly plenty of time left to cash in.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2024 3:10 pm
by tron777
13 now as of the 3pm IMBY and at CVG. High clouds are increasing due to the shortwave that will pass us by to our south tonight and into Monday. You can easily see on the below map the southern special getting under way.
US.png
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2024 3:33 pm
by winterstormjoe
Yep, you can see the snow with some mixing developing south of the snow shield moving east for the swing and the miss!
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2024 3:35 pm
by tron777
Fayetteville, AR is reporting snow with a temp of 2 degrees. Wow....
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2024 3:36 pm
by MVWxObserver
Thank you very much weatherbeast, Doug, and Joe!
You guys and so many others here make this forum very special and fun, too!
It started out at 0 this morning here in Greenville and currently is at 3 degrees. Forecast via ILN for 7 degrees so will see if it makes it there.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2024 3:51 pm
by MattD41
Highly disappointed weather….. in the OV
!
Maybe I should move
!
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2024 4:20 pm
by tron777
MattD41 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 3:51 pm
Highly disappointed weather….. in the OV
!
Maybe I should move
!
If I could move Matt, I would LOL Been saying that for years!
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2024 4:23 pm
by tron777
CVG is back down to 12 now so 13 is probably it for today. Same here IMBY. Brief mention from the boys for the Thurs / Fri system, which is the next one I am watching.
Late in the night Wednesday night through Thursday a system will work into the region
bringing the potential for accumulating snow to the region. Thursday
night into Friday an area of low pressure will move southeast of the
region and additional snow will move across the area. An upper
level disturbance and favorable wind direction off of the lake will
keep snow showers across the region into Saturday before tapering off.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2024 5:06 pm
by tron777
18Z GFS is a tad further to the south on this run for Thurs / Fri. We get all of the snow on Thurs 0.22" QPF at CVG and Friday ends up being a swing and a miss.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2024 5:13 pm
by Bgoney
tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 5:06 pm
18Z GFS is a tad further to the south on this run for Thurs / Fri. We get all of the snow on Thurs 0.22" QPF at CVG and Friday ends up being a swing and a miss.
An interesting setup for sure . 3 scenarios imo , we get the qpf from the northern wave, or a combo of northern qpf and southern qpf , or we see the familiar Cincinnati split where northern moisture stays near I-70 and southern moisture misses south/east
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2024 5:15 pm
by Wxlrnr
Happy birthday Eric! Hopefully a warm dinner followed by icebox cake.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2024 5:16 pm
by MVWxObserver
tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 3:10 pm
13 now as of the 3pm IMBY and at CVG. High clouds are increasing due to the shortwave that will pass us by to our south tonight and into Monday. You can easily see on the below map the southern special getting under way.
US.png
Yes Les, something is amiss when one's nephew and his wife and my sister, her mil, and my niece are under alerts.
Nephew and his wife near Nashville, TN under a Winter Storm Warning for 2-4" and other family members in Mt. Airy, NC under a Winter Weather Advisory for 1-3".
We'll get our turn Bro hopefully sooner than later down the pike!
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2024 5:22 pm
by MVWxObserver
Wxlrnr wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 5:15 pm
Happy birthday Eric! Hopefully a warm dinner followed by icebox cake.
Thank you very much Linn!
We had an icebox one literally courtesy of Dairy Queen!
It was messy cutting it even after a 10-15 minutes or so thaw BUT scrumptious!
A dear and sweet neighbor lady from down the street brought us some slices of homemade angel food cake as she had seen my bday advertised on our local retirement neighborhood cable system channel.
