November 2023 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

CVG is going to end the month well below normal for precip, not the active month for the Midwest/OV models were advertising in late October



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This makes perfect sense and reason the jets did not want to play together. Will this be a trend this winter and only time will tell and really the last time we had a decent above normal rainfall was last winter where we started off like gangbusters and slowly ended up drier and drier. I was lucky during the summer compared to many folks but Sept turned out really dry. I am trying to grasp hold of the trends for the winter and so far colder to the northeast is the main one and once the cold comes back in later December will need to see the overall pattern and see exactly where the STJ sets up for the season.

I know I’ve mentioned this all summer, but I still can’t believe the SE ridge has for the better part of a year , been non existent. Why? Is this going to be more common as a by- product of a changing climate. We can talk all we want about how the GOM is primed to explode moisture northward, but much like arctic air to our north in winter, without a mechanism to transport it into our hoods it’s meaningless. It’s not just our area , the mid section of the country has been in a worse drought than us . Two years in a row the Mississippi has been at record low levels and looks to stay there for the rest of this year. How long does the SEridge stay a non factor?

[tron777]

I definitely hope that the dryness isn't a thing this winter. The only thing worse then a cold rain and cold and dry.

[tpweather]

Great Post Bgoney. No doubt the central part of the country has been dry the past few years. The southeast until this past year has been way above normal with rainfall for at least 4 years. We did not get the Southeast ridge this summer and my guess is we had many tropical systems in the mid-Atlantic this hurricane season but most were on the light side and what ridging you had was not that strong over the southeast. I agree that climate change is part of this but to what extent. Back in the 1930's nobody thought climate change but just the normal cycle of mother nature but today with media coverage 24/7 and social media we act like this has never happened before.

Concerning the GOM and yes it is loaded and should be primed but again the transport system further north is what we need. Florida and along the gulf states and up the east coast should do fine this year. Besides desert areas most droughts are in the central part of a land mass. The warmer ocean waters overall is another factor but to what extent is still not known. Temps though on earth have gone up but the problem is so much warming around the polar areas has skewed this data. Heavier snows in the polar regions is more common as more moisture is available and this keeps winter temps milder in those areas.

We watch the models and recent ones showed above normal rainfall but its not happening and my guess the models are trying to catch up as well and especially in extended periods where models at the latter part of the forecast tend to head towards the mean.

[tpweather]

More thought later concerning December but leaving to get chores out of the way before traffic becomes heavy like every day before Thanksgiving

[Trevor]

[Trevor]

Good Morning and looks like a rather normal November day in store with plenty of clouds. I agree Les Thanksgiving may stay cloudy much of the day. Models every year in the Ohio Valley during the late fall and winter season move clouds out way to fast. This happens even more so after a decent precip event and where the air behind the front is cool but not to cold. I believe the clouds will hold together for the most part on Thursday and maybe in that 2-4pm range we see some rays of sun peaking through the clouds. Concerning Sunday and I agree this system looks a little stronger than a few days ago and again these are those disturbances that are rather weak and it takes time for the models to pick up on them. Again the jets are not together so a big system is not in the cards. My only concern and its minor most likely is we get a little light rain or drizzle early Sunday and temps could be near the 32 degree mark so a brief period of frz/rain or drizzle may be in the cards but we can look at that once we get closer to the event.

Hey Tim, I am also looking at the potential for light freezing rain/drizzle early Sunday. Needs to be watched. It only takes a little to create big problems.

[Bgoney]

Tropical ferns still going strong at an East side residence

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[tpweather]

Good Morning and looks like a rather normal November day in store with plenty of clouds. I agree Les Thanksgiving may stay cloudy much of the day. Models every year in the Ohio Valley during the late fall and winter season move clouds out way to fast. This happens even more so after a decent precip event and where the air behind the front is cool but not to cold. I believe the clouds will hold together for the most part on Thursday and maybe in that 2-4pm range we see some rays of sun peaking through the clouds. Concerning Sunday and I agree this system looks a little stronger than a few days ago and again these are those disturbances that are rather weak and it takes time for the models to pick up on them. Again the jets are not together so a big system is not in the cards. My only concern and its minor most likely is we get a little light rain or drizzle early Sunday and temps could be near the 32 degree mark so a brief period of frz/rain or drizzle may be in the cards but we can look at that once we get closer to the event.

Hey Tim, I am also looking at the potential for light freezing rain/drizzle early Sunday. Needs to be watched. It only takes a little to create big problems.

Hey Trevor, we are on the same page. These events tend to sneak up on folks and it only takes a small amount to cause some problems. Temps will be cold enough overnight Saturday I believe and that is why I thought there was a chance for this small event to happen.

[tpweather]

Tropical ferns still going strong at an East side residence



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Beautiful and saw plenty of those in South Carolina. We only one in a planter and though it was very healthy it is starting to show some stressful signs

[tpweather]

Btw traffic already heavy like you would expect but got my gas at Costco and very few folks were there at 9am since the store itself does not open until 10a

[tpweather]

Wonderful Video Trev. You can see where the band of heavier rain was yesterday and mainly near and south of I-71. I believe that is why the RH is much higher because of the moisture in the ground. This is very common during the late fall and winter season and many time places like Indy,Louisville will tend to clear out much quicker and here in the local area it just takes longer. I have low 40's on Thursday as I do expect to see some breaks late in the day. Again no doubt we will watch this and I will be up bright and early.

P.S. Nice to do a video with you,Les,Bgoney and others for the upcoming winter season. Different views and how we make a forecast would probably help everyone to reach a better forecast as we all have our strengths and weakness.

[tron777]

I need to do a video again too especially if we get a nice winter storm to track!

[tpweather]

Temps in northern Canada have finally got colder with some temps in the -30 - -40 range. A little slow to show up this fall but should make up for lost time in the next few weeks. The piece of the PV next week should keep us about 10 degrees below average and only if it was colder up to the north next week would have been a period of -15 -20 below normal. I am staying mainly -10 below normal and again some of the coldest to the northeast but anybody east of the Mississippi should feel the winter temps.

[tpweather]

The GFS which has been the warmest model the past week is showing the system for Sunday showing up but cooler air further south than previous runs. Again this is a nice air mass that is moving in slowly and can we get lucky and time it up with some precip. Just to add the gfs is bringing the colder air a tad further southwest than earlier models. Again lets see if this is a trend. So yes next week cold and that is almost a lock but can we get the cold air further southwest and maybe get a system out of the southern rockies to move eastward. Again models with new air masses will adjust overtime and though I don't see anything big in the works I don't believe it will be a week without a system or two to watch.

[Trevor]

Wonderful Video Trev. You can see where the band of heavier rain was yesterday and mainly near and south of I-71. I believe that is why the RH is much higher because of the moisture in the ground. This is very common during the late fall and winter season and many time places like Indy,Louisville will tend to clear out much quicker and here in the local area it just takes longer. I have low 40's on Thursday as I do expect to see some breaks late in the day. Again no doubt we will watch this and I will be up bright and early.

P.S. Nice to do a video with you,Les,Bgoney and others for the upcoming winter season. Different views and how we make a forecast would probably help everyone to reach a better forecast as we all have our strengths and weakness.

Great point Tim! I honestly didn’t think about that as much when I made the video as there are several reasons we can have elevated surface RH. But you are absolutely correct. That is a factor for sure!

[young pup]

Trevor you taught me something in this video. I never even knew that there was a cloud cover map on the model guidance. Thanks.

[tron777]

Good afternoon all! A 4 day weekend upcoming for me! Hope everyone has a wonderful Thanksgiving! Weatherwise, much to my surprise we did see a little sunshine today. There is a little patch of clearing to our West and more low clouds as well. We maybe able to hit 50 or so tomorrow should we see some sun like we saw today. The only system of note for the next 7+ days is this coming Sunday where a rain shower (snow flurry North) is possible. IMO this really isn't going to be a big deal. Then, we do turn colder for the first half of next week with highs in the U30s to L40s and lows in the 20s with dry conditions.

[tron777]

49 here today, CVG topped out at 49 also.

[Mjr]

Temperature currently 32.4
Happy Thanksgiving All

[Trevor]

I feel pretty good about a band of 1-3” on Sunday in the region. Models are favoring I-70 and points north, but we are a few days away and I wouldn’t rule us out from getting in on the action as it wouldn’t take much of a shift south. Still watching the light ZR threat down this way for Sunday AM.

Monday and Tuesday look quite cold for this time of year. Our first true blast of Arctic air of the season!

[tpweather]

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!!! The morning is starting out clear so no doubt going to be warmer than my low 40's today. Will watch over the next few hours to see if any clouds reform but if it remains sunny then low 50's seem certain.

Sunday and talked about possible frz/rain early in the morning. Models are pushing back when precip arrives so that is the key to any frz/rain or frz/drizzle. Again not a big issue but something to watch over the next few days. Nice cold shot for next week and we will see if any precip events occur. Models have problems picking out smaller items in the northwest flow and also if we get a nice low stuck over southeast Canada we can get the pinwheel spokes that throw energy towards us though depending where the low is will depend how far west the precip goes. Later in the weekend towards the first weekend of December another system looks to get underway and this may be the change from a colder period to a milder period.

[tpweather]

Concerning the extended forecast. The AO next week looks to be negative which should help keep the cold air around. A bigger issue is the NAO which a few days ago looked neutral or slightly negative. The NAO forecast for late next week looks more negative than before and this should help in blocking and we need to watch for any system that forms next week. Again next week is imo a week of the winter season that winter type precip can occur. Of course we need a system to form and models can be a little slow especially when you get cold air that dives towards the south central states. That has been the trend to have the cold somewhat further southwest and if this continues over the next few days expect the models to catch on to some development in that area. Also we have been talking about a milder 2nd and 3rd week of December and getting to the milder period usually a storm helps in the changeover.

[young pup]

Happy Thanksgiving all. Be heading down to the Queen City area for the day. Glad the sun is out and bright at the moment.

[tron777]

Good morning and Happy Thanksgiving to all of you and your families!!!

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[tron777]

A beautiful Thanksgiving in progress today as we track our next system for Sunday. Me personally... I'm just not all that impressed with it. Some rain and snow showers are possible certainly with the best chance to see snow being the I-70 Crew. I'll agree with that but I am not sold on much in the way of accumulations. Time of day will be critical though as it always is this time of year so we'll need to see how quickly precip overspreads the area as well as how long it takes for the column to saturate.

Then we turn much colder as mentioned with highs in the 30s likely for Mon and Tues and lows 20 to 25 for most folks. If we can get clear skies then the upper teens can happen esp in outlying areas. Then we moderate for the second half of next week which end Nov and begin Dec.

I am seeing more of a -NAO signal on the ensemble guidance so we could get another cold shot again. The -NAO signal is somewhat new so we need to see a few more model cycles to know if it is real or not. This could bode well for later in winter if the -NAO occurs in December with the El Nino. December might not be historically warm like the last several. We'll see though because the Pacific needs to cooperate also. A -NAO does no good if you have a trough in the West ala a -PNA.

Concerning the MJO, it looks to get into Phase 2 and 3 but after that, it may go back into the neutral circle so something else to watch. We may not see the trip thru the warmer phases as I was originally thinking for the mid December mild call I have made. There are lots of things changing right now so look for wild model swings esp on the operational runs.

EPS is back to showing the PV weakening again also so we'll see if the cold air can get on the move later in December / early January timeframe. This is a broad brushed post but I am just commenting on some things for cold and snow lovers that need to be watched closely since the winter season is upon us.