December 2022 Weather Discussion

[dce]

The models continue to trend colder the closer we get to the pattern change. We could truly be looking at some brutally cold air across the nation and, of course, AV land. The signals for moisture to interact with the cold air continue to look good also. The second half of this month should create much anticipated fun for this forum.

[tpweather]

The models continue to trend colder the closer we get to the pattern change. We could truly be looking at some brutally cold air across the nation and, of course, AV land. The signals for moisture to interact with the cold air continue to look good also. The second half of this month should create much anticipated fun for this forum.

Hey Doug and I agree 100p/c. Models have a hard time when you see this kind of pattern and no doubt the closer to the new pattern the colder they will end up showing. What also helps is we are in mid-December so you are starting to get into colder 2 month period which is mid-DEC - mid-Feb

[dce]

The models continue to trend colder the closer we get to the pattern change. We could truly be looking at some brutally cold air across the nation and, of course, AV land. The signals for moisture to interact with the cold air continue to look good also. The second half of this month should create much anticipated fun for this forum.

Hey Doug and I agree 100p/c. Models have a hard time when you see this kind of pattern and no doubt the closer to the new pattern the colder they will end up showing. What also helps is we are in mid-December so you are starting to get into colder 2 month period which is mid-DEC - mid-Feb

Yes. 20 degrees below average is colder the second half of December compared to the first half. It's going to be hard to nail down exact storm tracks until we get within a few days of the event. This is always the case during the winter time, anyway. However, with this extreme cold it is going to throw the models off even more than usual.

[tpweather]

The models continue to trend colder the closer we get to the pattern change. We could truly be looking at some brutally cold air across the nation and, of course, AV land. The signals for moisture to interact with the cold air continue to look good also. The second half of this month should create much anticipated fun for this forum.

Hey Doug and I agree 100p/c. Models have a hard time when you see this kind of pattern and no doubt the closer to the new pattern the colder they will end up showing. What also helps is we are in mid-December so you are starting to get into colder 2 month period which is mid-DEC - mid-Feb

Yes. 20 degrees below average is colder the second half of December compared to the first half. It's going to be hard to nail down exact storm tracks until we get within a few days of the event. This is always the case during the winter time, anyway. However, with this extreme cold it is going to throw the models off even more than usual.

Also throwing the models more is the amount of blocking and how each model determines when the blocking breaks down. This is when looking at patterns and also keeping up with what is actually happening across the Northern Hemisphere. Coldest temps in the last week are in Siberia which is usually the case in most winters and saw a -73 which is cold but no unheard there. When you have the cold over there you need the blocking to get some of that tapped and you need that ridging up into Alaska and when the models see that a colder outcome but when they see more low pressure in Alaska then we have a milder more zonal output. Blocking in Greenland helps in slowing storm systems down and we can end up with the nice storms like the one in the northern plains over the next few days. So the tellies will try and help in forecasting but sometimes they get out of whack and then we need to readjust.

[tron777]

Good afternoon all! Sorry for the lack of posts. I'm so busy working... dealing with life itself, etc. etc.

Here's BG's SnowTalk! video from this morning:



I haven't even checked any 12Z models yet. I'll post more later when I can after I have seen the new data.

[winterstormjoe]

This would be sweet for Christmas Eve...

[tron777]

Lot of potential guys... We need to see how things look by the end of the week with regards to the trough orientation, strength, etc. Then, what happens early next week then again around Christmas Time? More coming even after that. It's just too early to know. Solutions from rain... snow and rain... all snow... a swing and a miss to the East are all possible outcomes with each of these systems until we get closer in time. We're going into a great pattern! Will it deliver is of course the ultimate question. Would love to see something like the GFS on Christmas panning out as well Joe! Even the end of the Euro run looked to be setting us up! That would be one of the greatest presents a snow weenie like us could receive.

[Bgoney]

This is going to be epic for the Rockies

ecmwf-deterministic-wcan-mslp-1710400.png

[tron777]

That map Bgoney posted remains me of January 1994. We had a monster snow and ice storm then it got down into the -20s. December 1989, we had a 7" snow storm then dropped into the -20s. I'd love to see a repeat performance!

[Bgoney]

From the EPS. After the initial cool down , a Brief slight warm up , then a reinforcing cold shot just in time for Santa. (850 temps)

Screenshot_20221212-164900_Chrome.jpg

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[tpweather]

That map Bgoney posted remains me of January 1994. We had a monster snow and ice storm then it got down into the -20s. December 1989, we had a 7" snow storm then dropped into the -20s. I'd love to see a repeat performance!

Les it also reminds me of a few winters in the late 70's as well. Again models are starting to catch on with how cold the lower 48 should get over the second half of December. If we can add snow that will only make it colder. We just need to get lucky with the storm path.

[Wxlrnr]

Oh, trust me. It is going to be wild. We have been waiting for four months to get our porch roof repaired after our neighbor's tree damaged it. Finally got everything ready for the roofer and weather has changed.

[tron777]

Good evening! 18Z GFS has a southern slider around the 20th that just misses us. Then it's cold and dry for the most part. Again, the solutions will change from many of the models in my opinion over the next 5 days at least. Buckle up and strap yourselves in for a wild ride is about all I can say.

EDIT: I'll be back after dinner to talk weather here in a bit.

[tpweather]

Good Evening Les and having a nice pattern change in the middle of December is really imo the best possible time of the year. Not only for the Holidays which I love but the time of year where temps are still falling and of course some of the shortest daylight hours of the year. All we can ask for is this pattern and if we get missed it will be disappointing but at least the pattern is there in mid-Dec. I really thought the models would get colder as we got closer as they do not do well with cold outbreaks in much of the USA. Getting that heavy snow pack in the northern plains is great and if we can start to add to that further south and east then hard to believe we don't get a few shots at some decent snows. I still believe this is more like a 3-4 week pattern and not the 2 weeks we sometimes end up with. The models are going to change from day to day and especially if unable to figure out the blocking pattern. We know the bias of each model so we try and work around that which is not always easy. Like I mentioned earlier the coldest air is in Siberia which again not a surprise and saw -73 earlier but if we can get a cross-polar flow and a way to get that cold down here is with the correct blocking and some decent storms to help bring it south. I still believe before December is over we have 2 storms with snow and talking about storms that produce over 2 inches and getting to zero or below is very possible.

[tron777]

Oh wow... this is interesting. There is a global supply chain issue with helium. Helium is used to fill weather balloons. Weather balloons are typically released by numerous NWS Offices. As you know, they take atmospheric soundings and sample the atmosphere above our heads. This data is vital to accurate weather forecasting as well as data that is fed into the computer models we look at each day. Check out this Tweet: NWS Albany, NY is suspending weather balloons operations until March of 2023. Let's hope we do not see more of this or our model data will become fairly useless (if it isn't already LOL)

[tron777]

Good Evening Les and having a nice pattern change in the middle of December is really imo the best possible time of the year. Not only for the Holidays which I love but the time of year where temps are still falling and of course some of the shortest daylight hours of the year. All we can ask for is this pattern and if we get missed it will be disappointing but at least the pattern is there in mid-Dec. I really thought the models would get colder as we got closer as they do not do well with cold outbreaks in much of the USA. Getting that heavy snow pack in the northern plains is great and if we can start to add to that further south and east then hard to believe we don't get a few shots at some decent snows. I still believe this is more like a 3-4 week pattern and not the 2 weeks we sometimes end up with. The models are going to change from day to day and especially if unable to figure out the blocking pattern. We know the bias of each model so we try and work around that which is not always easy. Like I mentioned earlier the coldest air is in Siberia which again not a surprise and saw -73 earlier but if we can get a cross-polar flow and a way to get that cold down here is with the correct blocking and some decent storms to help bring it south. I still believe before December is over we have 2 storms with snow and talking about storms that produce over 2 inches and getting to zero or below is very possible.

Great post Tim! You've got to have a favorable pattern for snow if you want to see snow. That is coming. I'd roll the dice every time with this set up no matter what happens in the next few weeks. I'd do it all over again. Odds look really good to me on paper. We just have to wait and see what the reality is going to be. I know this is a vague post but you can't say "Yeah... 6-12" is coming by 12/25!!!" Then if it doesn't happen you lose all credibility and we don't do that here on this forum as everybody knows. We watch, we talk about the models as we keep doing and we wait to see the trends. It's all anyone can do right now.

[MVWxObserver]

My cousin Cherie, her husband Gary and their daughter Madeline from VA Beach plan to arrive at her folks here in Greenville on the 23rd and will be staying until the 27th. They usually drive straight through. By the looks of the varying models output for next week and heading into Christmas it looks interesting as they "go over the river and through the woods ..."

Currently 34 here in G'ville and progged to get around to 29 on Tues morning.

[tpweather]

Oh wow... this is interesting. There is a global supply chain issue with helium. Helium is used to fill weather balloons. Weather balloons are typically released by numerous NWS Offices. As you know, they take atmospheric soundings and sample the atmosphere above our heads. This data is vital to accurate weather forecasting as well as data that is fed into the computer models we look at each day. Check out this Tweet: NWS Albany, NY is suspending weather balloons operations until March of 2023. Let's hope we do not see more of this or our model data will become fairly useless (if it isn't already LOL)

Not sure where you can get helium but I know one place that has a lot of hot air

[young pup]

Oh wow... this is interesting. There is a global supply chain issue with helium. Helium is used to fill weather balloons. Weather balloons are typically released by numerous NWS Offices. As you know, they take atmospheric soundings and sample the atmosphere above our heads. This data is vital to accurate weather forecasting as well as data that is fed into the computer models we look at each day. Check out this Tweet: NWS Albany, NY is suspending weather balloons operations until March of 2023. Let's hope we do not see more of this or our model data will become fairly useless (if it isn't already LOL)

Unbelievable. Not really though. We will just have to look out the window and throw darts at the dartboard to get it right.

[MVWxObserver]

Oh wow... this is interesting. There is a global supply chain issue with helium. Helium is used to fill weather balloons. Weather balloons are typically released by numerous NWS Offices. As you know, they take atmospheric soundings and sample the atmosphere above our heads. This data is vital to accurate weather forecasting as well as data that is fed into the computer models we look at each day. Check out this Tweet: NWS Albany, NY is suspending weather balloons operations until March of 2023. Let's hope we do not see more of this or our model data will become fairly useless (if it isn't already LOL)

Not sure where you can get helium but I know one place that has a lot of hot air

It would make you know who sound like Pee Wee Herman.

[tron777]

Good morning folks! Our last dry day and it'll be raining when you wake up tomorrow. Periods of rain continue on and off until Thurs morning once the front passes. We will see the dry slot then with falling temps. An inch of rain or so looks pretty easy with this system so another nice soaker to ease the drought conditions. Still expecting snow showers on Friday on the back side.

Then.... do we see a little something on the 20th? Some hints are there early next week of some possible snow. Then a big dog storm is still showing up as we approach Christmas around the 22-24th timeframe. Bitterly cold air should drop in behind this system. Did you know? Miles City, MT back in December of 1983 right near Christmastime, holds the record for a 1067 MB High. Some guidance like the Euro family continues to show a 1070 MB high in that area! WOW! Whether we cash in on snow or not, brutal cold is coming for a lot of the Nation this Christmas Season and I think this pattern sticks around thru early January. Buckle up my friends!

[tron777]

The period around Christmas absolutely has to be watched. Massive -EPO, AO drops to -5, a weakly -NAO and the PNA spikes to weakly positive during this time. This look folks is about as good as it gets for wintry weather. As stated before, if we fail, we've got bad luck because the pattern screams cold with winter weather events every few days. We just have to wait and see once this big storm gets out of the way after this week, how the players on the field are lined up.

[tron777]

Check out the EPS from around the 20th thru the end of the run. Big Aleutian Low pumps up the AK Ridge while storms undercut the ridging. Trough NE of Hawaii gets the positive PNA started and of course the -NAO is still there too. What a gorgeous look!!!

ShesABeautClark.gif

GEFS is fairly similar although the trough axis might be a tad better here for the East Coast vs OV. But still a workable pattern nonetheless.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_fh180-384.gif

[tpweather]

Good Morning and should see the sun more today with increasing clouds as the day wears on. Rain is on the way and comes in two waves. First arriving later tonight until probably noon on Wednesday and then a second wave later that night and early Thursday. The first wave should bring .5-.75 but how much will the second wave bring is all about how front behaves. I had .5-.1 for both waves and I could be low depending on that second wave. Going to be a cutoff somewhere in the Ohio Valley and the best chances for higher amounts will be south and east. I will stick with my forecast of rainfall amounts but if I bust I understand the reasoning.

Les I agree once we get this big system out of the way then we can start to look at each system coming this way. Still expect some flurries and snow showers later Friday into Saturday. Then we watch as the new pattern should be in tact and the fun begins.

[tron777]

Good Morning and should see the sun more today with increasing clouds as the day wears on. Rain is on the way and comes in two waves. First arriving later tonight until probably noon on Wednesday and then a second wave later that night and early Thursday. The first wave should bring .5-.75 but how much will the second wave bring is all about how front behaves. I had .5-.1 for both waves and I could be low depending on that second wave. Going to be a cutoff somewhere in the Ohio Valley and the best chances for higher amounts will be south and east. I will stick with my forecast of rainfall amounts but if I bust I understand the reasoning.

Les I agree once we get this big system out of the way then we can start to look at each system coming this way. Still expect some flurries and snow showers later Friday into Saturday. Then we watch as the new pattern should be in tact and the fun begins.

Good morning Tim! A pretty dynamic weather day unfolding with heavy snow and blizzard like conditions in the Plains and severe wx down in Texas. A tornado has already been reported in Ft. Worth around rush hour this morning. All we are going to get is heavy rain for tomorrow and winds gusting over 30 mph esp for Thurs as the front passes and the colder air starts coming in. Then as you said, let the fun begin! Boy oh boy, I can't wait to start tracking these systems!!!