Absolute Vorticity

.30" here and a brief peak or two of sun atm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Aug 14, 2022 12:45 pm .30" here and a brief peak or two of sun atm

Excellent! A touch of sun here too earlier but now cloudy and 74.

Another nice shower in progress.

Couple of downpours sliding SE along the I-74 and Route 32 corridors.

Couple more rounds with some thunder this go round

Holy smokes, just noticed the shear we have over the area , if there would have been a couple hours of sun , things would have really ramped up

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.60" for the day so far.

Good Monday morning all! I don't see much in the way of rain chances until Fri and the upcoming weekend. If we see anything before then, it'll be isolated in nature. Likely POPS by the weekend though as our next system moves in. Temps will remain below avg with highs in the U70s to L80s and lows in the L60s.

0.14" up this way - had a couple periods of moderate rain yesterday.

76 / 63 at CVG right now. A decent afternoon in progress!

12Z GFS continuing the theme of only spotty rain chances this week. Sunday is the wettest day on today's run for those making plans.

Don't look now but towards the end of the GFS run, the 540 line is in S. Canada folks. Fall is coming.

For my snow fans out there, there's that year again.

https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1mrGmaPRVnBGy <---BG 2pm Weather Update:

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 15, 2022 1:19 pm

Code: Select all

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
0205 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2022

...LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE TIED AT COLUMBUS OH...

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 70 DEGREES AT COLUMBUS, OHIO, YESTERDAY 
AUGUST 14, 2022, TIED THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PREVIOUSLY 
SET IN 2013.

For my snow fans out there, there's that year again.

Wouldn't that be a dream come true. I'm thinking we will never see that again. Maybe one more time in our lifetime. Nice to dream though!

dce wrote: ↑Mon Aug 15, 2022 2:03 pm Wouldn't that be a dream come true. I'm thinking we will never see that again. Maybe one more time in our lifetime. Nice to dream though!

It would be nice! I am seeing 2010-2011 showing up a bit right now. Was a second year Moderate Nina with a fast start to winter. Everyone would be hip for this analog. Dec and Jan were great and Feb winter was basically over as the pattern relaxed. Was a white Christmas though with a nice snow pack for the Holiday Season. Snowiest December at CVG with 16.6" falling. It was not a top ten for Dayton or Columbus so likely a more southern storm track. I did see this analog last year too and it did not work. This is a third year Nina so a tough one to get right as this is going to be new forecasting territory for us since 1999-2001 seasons.

Trev will love this!

12Z Euro model today is like the GFS with regards to the highest rain chances coming this Sunday. Spotty coverage until then is expected.

Looking forward to the next wet pattern as its been drier up this way of late.

Currently 79 here in G'ville.

LaNina weekly reading features another cool down, 3.4 region down to -1.1. Recent Inactive phase of MJO has helped stifle Atlantic tropical activity so far In August, along with the SAL.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Aug 15, 2022 3:59 pm LaNina weekly reading features another cool down, 3.4 region down to -1.1. Recent Inactive phase of MJO has helped stifle Atlantic tropical activity so far In August, along with the SAL.

This is a great website to track the African Dust or SAL from the Univ of Wisconsin.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/

If a wave can make it to the Islands then it'll have a chance. Too much dust East of the Islands. I did see a recent GFS run try and show something get cooking around Day 9 but until then, it's pretty much crickets on this side of the globe.

Good Afternoon and made it back from SC yesterday. Got the yard cut and though I have been short-handed on the rain since Les is trying to hoard all the rain lol. Yard still in really good shape and probably 10 p/c where some patchy brown areas and mainly with the new grass seed I put out this spring and this happens quite often the first year. Rain chances seem light at best until the weekend and then we will see how much the GOM has opened up. No long term heat and really I don't see a day with it hitting 90 over the next 2 weeks and this brings us almost to September. I know the tropics are still having problems and not only the Atlantic but the Pacific. The place with the most activity this year has been the Indian Ocean and India itself has had a very nice monsoon season though it decided not share the wealth with other countries. I wonder with the lack of tropical systems that the warmth they produce that head to the poles will be much less and even there are signals of a decent cold shot in north central Canada in a week or two which is not unusual but if the models are correct a rather strong early cold spell up there. Will that get here and maybe we see some wonderful Canadian air in a couple of weeks which could mean temps in the low 70's during the day and low's in the upper 40's. I will post more in a few days as I have some other things I need to get done but will start looking at more winter like issue's and though usually October before I really get going I thought what the heck and try and research this 3rd year Nina which just keeps going and going.

Welcome Home again Tim! Sorry about the rain but if it makes you feel any better only a few hundredths yesterday and CVG only 0.05" Anyway that Nina is going to be a thorn on our sides to try and figure this winter season out and the quiet tropics are also very very interesting. Even the West Pac has been low on activity. M storm over there, H storm in the East Pac and only the B storm in the Atl. A lame season overall but how will that impact the upcoming winter is the question of the day for me. More research is certainly needed in the coming weeks and months on this issue. We will have to put on our thinking toques, eh?