Absolute Vorticity

Sunday is looking like a wet and stormy day with periods of rain / t-storms and temps falling thru the 70s. The rain may not be totally over with until the evening in some areas. Rainfall amounts will vary. Depends on where any heavier storms occur. An inch plus some of you may get thru Sunday while others may only get a quarter of an inch or so. I think we are all on the same page for the most part. Nice posts everyone!

Good Morning and get ready for a few days of heat and humidity. Looks like most of the day will be dry today though showers and thundershowers should start to form with the warm front in late afternoon to our south and head northeast during the evening and overnight. Friday looks warm and muggy and still going 86-88 because of the moisture in the ground which does add to the dew points and though those dew point temps look to drop some in the afternoon I am not sure if they drop enough to give us a quick rise in temps. Saturday is my hot day with 90 likely and with the slowing of the front maybe 91 or 92 because we start so warm in the morning. With the front slowing then much of Saturday is dry though an isolated storm is possible in the afternoon. Overnight Saturday and Sunday the front is heading through and with an added day of warmth and humidity showers and thundershowers are very likely. Then two beautiful days with lower temps and humidity. Will not be long until met summer so what does that look like at this time. Plenty of moisture in the central plains will no doubt help keep temps in tact early on but those rains have not been that common further south so and extended period of heat is likely to build. Just way to early to get a true sense of how the summer will play out at least the start should not have an extended period of heat.

Good morning Tim and another fantastic post! I think it is a bit early to know how the summer will play out. I've seen the usual array of long range guidance. Hot, normal, and cooler then normal are all on the table. Rainfall wise, dry and wet both are showing up. I am not sure how a triple dip Nina is going to impact the summer since we haven't had very many of these. 3 since 1950. So do we see the usual impacts... a trough out west and the big SE ridge / Bermuda high for us... or do we see the opposite impacts thanks to the drought out West. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out no doubt.

The fog is slowly starting to lift and mix out. At 7am, CVG was reporting a visibility of only 0.06 of a mile! I'd say we are a half mile to 3/4 around here now so it's getting better.

Records for Friday are Dayton and Columbus with 91 degrees and CVG with 92 degrees. Let's see how close we can get at the Big 3 sites. For Saturday, the record at all 3 sites is 92 degrees.

BG Blog Update: https://www.wave3.com/2022/05/19/wave-w ... pdate-519/

Radar showing the next MCS complex to be centered neat Joplin, MO in the SW part of the state. Strong to severe t-storms are on the leading edge over South Central MO. It is this disturbance they we need to watch for late this afternoon or more likely this evening to see if a few storms can pop from it as it moves by. Storms should fire to our SW and move NE. I think the activity will be spotty but impressive where it does occur. As I mentioned this morning, this should become a decent rain event overnight into early Fri for folks to our north like the I-70 Crew who have been missing out a little bit on the heavier rains. As usual we shall see, but those are my current thoughts over the next 24 hours.

Managed 0.19" with the shower activity yesterday.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 9:45 am Radar showing the next MCS complex to be centered neat Joplin, MO in the SW part of the state. Strong to severe t-storms are on the leading edge over South Central MO. It is this disturbance they we need to watch for late this afternoon or more likely this evening to see if a few storms can pop from it as it moves by. Storms should fire to our SW and move NE. I think the activity will be spotty but impressive where it does occur. As I mentioned this morning, this should become a decent rain event overnight into early Fri for folks to our north like the I-70 Crew who have been missing out a little bit on the heavier rains. As usual we shall see, but those are my current thoughts over the next 24 hours.

I agree Les and we also need to watch the warm front today. That front should be slowly moving northward today and I expect by afternoon we will see showers and thundershowers form near the front. Tons of moisture to work so all we need is the trigger and the front alone is enough to provide some lift. The MCS complex like you mentioned is forecast to head just northwest of us and if that happens we know the tail end of these are where isolated tornado's can form. I still believe the warm front itself will have a lot to do with the exact path of the MCS. Will be interesting this afternoon as things develop but I will on the golf course trying to figure out my swing once again.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 9:51 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 9:45 am Radar showing the next MCS complex to be centered neat Joplin, MO in the SW part of the state. Strong to severe t-storms are on the leading edge over South Central MO. It is this disturbance they we need to watch for late this afternoon or more likely this evening to see if a few storms can pop from it as it moves by. Storms should fire to our SW and move NE. I think the activity will be spotty but impressive where it does occur. As I mentioned this morning, this should become a decent rain event overnight into early Fri for folks to our north like the I-70 Crew who have been missing out a little bit on the heavier rains. As usual we shall see, but those are my current thoughts over the next 24 hours.

I agree Les and we also need to watch the warm front today. That front should be slowly moving northward today and I expect by afternoon we will see showers and thundershowers form near the front. Tons of moisture to work so all we need is the trigger and the front alone is enough to provide some lift. The MCS complex like you mentioned is forecast to head just northwest of us and if that happens we know the tail end of these are where isolated tornado's can form. I still believe the warm front itself will have a lot to do with the exact path of the MCS. Will be interesting this afternoon as things develop but I will on the golf course trying to figure out my swing once again.

I think the MCS is going to track to our NW so the higher chances should be there. The warm front IMHO is only going to spark isolated activity. It can be intense, but isolated. Models are struggling as usual with this so all we can do is put our thoughts out there, which we are, and see how it pans out.

Looks like the day1 SPC outlook nudged the marginal/slight risks a bit north....

This is part of the MCS us I-70 folks are keeping an eye on for later this evening into tonight.

Not terribly unusual - but check out the snow forecast for the mountains and foothills of Colorado FRI and SAT. Over two feet possible around Rocky Mountain NP and a foot even possible along the Palmer Divide. A snow lovers paradise for sure!

I’m actually a bit more enthusiastic than others on here about our chances for strong to severe storms this evening. I expect the SPC to continue moving the risk area further north. Slight risk is warranted for the tri-state IMO and I think they’ll add us to it at some point in their updates today.

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 11:58 am I’m actually a bit more enthusiastic than others on here about our chances for strong to severe storms this evening. I expect the SPC to continue moving the risk area further north. Slight risk is warranted for the tri-state IMO and I think they’ll add us to it at some point in their updates today.

If the sunshine trends continue I would have to agree. That is a question mark to me right now. How much CAPE can we get? Visible is looking a bit more promising, but we need to clear out some more IMO. In time, I believe the CAPE is going to be fine and for wind shear, we've got 40 knots already so that should also be fine. The cap is the issue at the moment. How much will the cap break for storm formation in our area esp if the MCV is focused more to our NW as a much better trigger? The warm front I believe will generate isolated activity but I am questioning the cap erosion as into how much activity can actually build?

The morning sounding from ILN has a convective temp of 73 and a max high of 77. This is for KILN. This won't be an issue as the sunshine is increasing. However, DCAPE values are only 500. Freezing level is at 11-12K foot range and lapse rates are poor. I need to see more favorable conditions for me to change my call from isolated.

I do think that whatever does pop will be strong to severe. I have said that all along. The coverage and the degree of cap erosion are the issues I am seeing right now. What are your thoughts on this Trev?

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 11:34 am Not terribly unusual - but check out the snow forecast for the mountains and foothills of Colorado FRI and SAT. Over two feet possible around Rocky Mountain NP and a foot even possible along the Palmer Divide. A snow lovers paradise for sure!


ndfd-colorado-snow_48hr-3177600.png

They really need the snow as this past season was a dud and so much of the water supply comes from winter snows.

Trev... you were correct about the SPC. Slight risk nudged more NE. TOR 2% now for us... Wind and Hail both at 15%. 30% for wind is just to our SW by LOU, EVV and points SW from there.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 12:53 pm Trev... you were correct about the SPC. Slight risk nudged more NE. TOR 2% now for us... Wind and Hail both at 15%. 30% for wind is just to our SW by LOU, EVV and points SW from there.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Nice! Yeah it was inevitable based on my morning model analysis. Things look to get pretty rocky around here this evening. HRRR is showing a bit more of a tornado risk, so we need to watch that closely. Probably the best risk setup we have seen thus far this year IMO, but the season has been off to a slower start so that doesn’t say much haha. But yeah I like what I’m seeing re: strong/severe potential.

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 1:09 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 12:53 pm Trev... you were correct about the SPC. Slight risk nudged more NE. TOR 2% now for us... Wind and Hail both at 15%. 30% for wind is just to our SW by LOU, EVV and points SW from there.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Nice! Yeah it was inevitable based on my morning model analysis. Things look to get pretty rocky around here this evening. HRRR is showing a bit more of a tornado risk, so we need to watch that closely. Probably the best risk setup we have seen thus far this year IMO, but the season has been off to a slower start so that doesn’t say much haha. But yeah I like what I’m seeing re: strong/severe potential.

In other words, you believe that the cap is going to get eroded sufficiently. As far as timing goes... 8... 9pm... something like that? Seeing a few cells now in scattered form from STL to EVV. I assume this activity is the beginnings of the event as things continue to develop and evolve to the ENE.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 1:17 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 1:09 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 12:53 pm Trev... you were correct about the SPC. Slight risk nudged more NE. TOR 2% now for us... Wind and Hail both at 15%. 30% for wind is just to our SW by LOU, EVV and points SW from there.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Nice! Yeah it was inevitable based on my morning model analysis. Things look to get pretty rocky around here this evening. HRRR is showing a bit more of a tornado risk, so we need to watch that closely. Probably the best risk setup we have seen thus far this year IMO, but the season has been off to a slower start so that doesn’t say much haha. But yeah I like what I’m seeing re: strong/severe potential.

In other words, you believe that the cap is going to get eroded sufficiently. As far as timing goes... 8... 9pm... something like that? Seeing a few cells now in scattered form from STL to EVV. I assume this activity is the beginnings of the event as things continue to develop and evolve to the ENE.

Yup I like that timing.

Sky is clearing out nicely imby now.,.. best it's looked all day. 76 / 69 at CVG as of 1:20pm so temps are finally starting to respond. Dews are nice and juicy now as well.

TOR Watch likely now to be issued over S ILL region: MD Issued from SPC, talking about possible super cellular development.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0828.html

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 1:33 pm Sky is clearing out nicely imby now.,.. best it's looked all day. 76 / 69 at CVG as of 1:20pm so temps are finally starting to respond. Dews are nice and juicy now as well.

TOR Watch likely now to be issued over S ILL region: MD Issued from SPC, talking about possible super cellular development.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0828.html

Gotta watch that action closely. HRRR is definitely going in the direction of developing some supercells up this way later as well. I suspect we’ll be under a watch at some point later (probably a tornado watch).

Trev... Low and mid level lapse rates to our SW are fantastic to support large hail and isolated tornadoes. 3000-5000 J/kg of CAPE to our SW along with 40 knots of bulk shear. Super cell comp index for us right now is at 2. 4 for LOU and 8 by the time you get closer to the MCV in S MO.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 1:47 pm Trev... Low and mid level lapse rates to our SW are fantastic to support large hail and isolated tornadoes. 3000-5000 J/kg of CAPE to our SW along with 40 knots of bulk shear. Super cell comp index for us right now is at 2. 4 for LOU and 8 by the time you get closer to the MCV in S MO.

Yup and we’ll see those numbers increase up this way as well in the coming hours as we continue to destabilize.

Cells continue to pop. Look at Evansville - EVV radar folks. Another loan cell now down by Clarksville, TN along the border as well.