Absolute Vorticity

The Boys have an early call on social media.

Looks good for a first call this early , with current modeling

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:58 pm The Boys have an early call on social media.


EarlyCall.jpg

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wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 8:46 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:58 pm The Boys have an early call on social media.


EarlyCall.jpg

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tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:58 pm The Boys have an early call on social media.


EarlyCall.jpg

Seems really conservative to me. 1-2 inches of snow and .10 - .25 of ice. I thought it would be big numbers on one or the other but it seems they are going low on both snow and ice.

Pete1 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 8:50 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:58 pm The Boys have an early call on social media.


EarlyCall.jpg

Seems really conservative to me. 1-2 inches of snow and .10 - .25 of ice. I thought it would be big numbers on one or the other but it seems they are going low on both snow and ice.

These maps never pan out very well, in my opinion. Look back at this map in 3 days and compare it to what actually happens. It will change again even by tomorrow. They can only go by what the models show. Winter storms, especially big ones, always have surprises.

Nam more SE with freezing surface temps than its previous runs today

I don't like the timing on the ice on the nam tonight.

Freezing surface temps all the way to our SE crew by 12z thursday , thats a big change from its earlier runs today

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:58 pm The Boys have an early call on social media.


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Doesn’t this map look like it correlates with the most recent euro model?

Showing a lot of sleet through the heart of cvgland to dayton

Not much snow with this.

NAM was mostly a sleet event ending with 1-3" snow for a lot of cvgland/dayton/cbus

Bgoney, I believe many more runs of changes and its not so much the waves themselves but the temperature profiles at different heights. I have seen where the trees are filled with ice and nothing on the surface and the other way around. So it becomes very tough for these models to get a handle on the temps of the atmosphere this far out. The one big trend over the past day or so is that much of the precip in the local area looks to be in the form of liquid. Whether that's rain,sleet or the dreaded frz/rain is something we are trying to figure out in the next 48 hours. I have seen it rain at 30 degrees and no frz rain at the surface and seen it at 32 with a small amount of light rain and it turns into a skating rink. Ice is so hard to predict but once you start getting into the 26-28 degree range you usually have problems but it may take time for that to happen Thursday.

No doubt TIm, QPF is not a problem but temps profiles are critical here. I do think the NAM is one we should respect for this event with its higher resolution for detecting the temp profiles

The latest nam shows a little stronger system so its a little further north. To me this will just take it longer to switch from plain old rain to a frozen type especially south of I-71. These systems can get locked into a temperature zone that does not change for hours while the system heads to the northeast. The stronger this system gets the less amount of frozen precip we will have. The nam does tend to show warmer profiles so I am not saying this run is correct but it really is something you would expect from the nam.

qpf from NAM

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 9:52 pm The latest nam shows a little stronger system so its a little further north. To me this will just take it longer to switch from plain old rain to a frozen type especially south of I-71. These systems can get locked into a temperature zone that does not change for hours while the system heads to the northeast. The stronger this system gets the less amount of frozen precip we will have. The nam does tend to show warmer profiles so I am not saying this run is correct but it really is something you would expect from the nam.

There has been a southward shift with frozen precip with each run from the NAM today. Good sign in my opinion if you would like for the colder GFS solution to play out. I really will be surprised if the GFS verifies though. I suspect it will come back north and a little weaker in subsequent runs, but who knows? Maybe it's on to something?

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:58 pm The Boys have an early call on social media.


EarlyCall.jpg

Looks like winter storm Pooh Bear

What are we thinking for this 0z run? Hoping for one last SE trend!

The short range Canadian.

GFS is a thing of beauty if it stands.

Here is the gfs.

Wow! That GFS run is too good to be true for Butler County.

The Euro has come south.