Absolute Vorticity

12Z CMC is coming in south just like the 0Z. Wave of rain / mix to the NW Thurs morning as the front comes thru,. Looks like the second batch of moisture stays to our south as the second low continues to take too long to get going. An upstream clipper in Canada trying to drop in is partly to blame. Keeps the flow a bit too progressive. Right now we are at the keep one eye open stage for sure. If we can gain more model support, we'll open 'em both.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 11:46 am Funny Les I was looking at the JMA and the German model yesterday and they both were further south more in line with the CMC. I really never look at those models but the CMC had been so far south for several runs and though the Euro was getting closer each run the gfs was still much further north.

I peak at 'em from time to time, but generally those two are trash.

Oh wow... just peaked outside and getting a nice snow shower here attm.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 11:51 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 11:46 am Funny Les I was looking at the JMA and the German model yesterday and they both were further south more in line with the CMC. I really never look at those models but the CMC had been so far south for several runs and though the Euro was getting closer each run the gfs was still much further north.

I peak at 'em from time to time, but generally those two are trash.

I agree 100p/c but usually when the CMC is an outliner it will come back to the other models. This was not the case and what it was showing had some merit. That is why I needed to see what those two models were touting and yes more in line with the CMC. Euro should be a key run today and if continues to come south then no doubt we have something to talk about besides heavy rain.

No snow showers and all I got was a rock.

The front gets hung up in the gulf states on the CMC but the system is progressive plus the high to the north is rather strong so a second wave would be once again well to the southeast for us to get in on the action. Again we are 4 days away before the system gathers itself.

Trend continues with the GEFs. They look pretty darn good

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 11:55 am No snow showers and all I got was a rock.

A car topper / grass duster here. Still some flurries. Street just wet.

12Z UKMET is now the NW guidance leader... low tracks from IND to Cleveland. Usually it is way SE of all models the majority of the time, now its well NW. It's really had a bad season.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 12:25 pm 12Z UKMET is now the NW guidance leader... low tracks from IND to Cleveland. Usually it is way SE of all models the majority of the time, now its well NW. It's really had a bad season.

UKMET tends to follow the Euro in many cases. Lets see what the Euro brings to the table today.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 12:25 pm 12Z UKMET is now the NW guidance leader... low tracks from IND to Cleveland. Usually it is way SE of all models the majority of the time, now its well NW. It's really had a bad season.

Les maybe I am looking at the model wrong but to me it looks like the UKMET has a low from Paducah to say Columbus.The gfs though looks like a Indy to Cleveland track.

The 0Z Euro low track was from S ILL to Dayton, Ohio to Upstate NY.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 12:37 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 12:25 pm 12Z UKMET is now the NW guidance leader... low tracks from IND to Cleveland. Usually it is way SE of all models the majority of the time, now its well NW. It's really had a bad season.

Les maybe I am looking at the model wrong but to me it looks like the UKMET has a low from Paducah to say Columbus.The gfs though looks like a Indy to Cleveland track.

I was eyeballing... your interpretation is probably closer to be correct.

Euro's joining the south party now...

Further SE then the GFS. Has a track thru Lexington KY.

The low slowly strengthens as it tracks into WV Thurs night. Rain to snow. Perhaps up to an inch for the Metro on this run in the grassy areas before ending Thurs night.

By EU standards , thats a sizeable shift from one run to the next

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:42 pm By EU standards , thats a sizeable shift from one run to the next

EPS has been faster and SE of the OP so I would also expect the 12Z EPS to continue that same theme.

Nice run by the Euro. Still seeing those big highs out of Canada and I believe until that changes cold will still be available to get rather far south. Les I agree with you about how the models are rushing patterns this season and that started back in December and seems to continue as we head to the second half of February.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:56 pm Nice run by the Euro. Still seeing those big highs out of Canada and I believe until that changes cold will still be available to get rather far south. Les I agree with you about how the models are rushing patterns this season and that started back in December and seems to continue as we head to the second half of February.

I don't know if we'll see anything like the GEFS but one more bump SE from the Euro and you've got something to talk about.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:57 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:56 pm Nice run by the Euro. Still seeing those big highs out of Canada and I believe until that changes cold will still be available to get rather far south. Les I agree with you about how the models are rushing patterns this season and that started back in December and seems to continue as we head to the second half of February.

I don't know if we'll see anything like the GEFS but one more bump SE from the Euro and you've got something to talk about.

I agree Les and more storminess after this weeks system

EPS show the low track near Lou/Cin

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 3:36 pm EPS show the low track near Lou/Cin

Now, it's north of the OP Still though it's more south as a whole overall today then even overnight last night's runs.

From the boys for tomorrow afternoon and evening:

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Short wave will pivot across the region Sunday afternoon and
evening. Steep low-level lapse rates with much of the saturated
layer in the dendritic growth zone will all combine to result in
scattered snow showers. There is the potential for a quick half
inch to fall in some of these. This will be fast-moving with
activity passing east of the area by mid evening and clouds
clearing shortly after this disturbance passes. This will be the
coldest part of the week with highs in the 20s to lower 30s and
lows from the upper single digits to mid teens.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
309 PM EST Sat Feb 12 2022

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-132015-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
309 PM EST Sat Feb 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A strong storm system will move through the region Wednesday through
Friday morning. Gusty winds upwards of 40 mph will be possible during
the day on Wednesday. Moderate to heavy rain will move through late
Wednesday night through the day on Thursday. This will lead to the
potential for some flooding concerns.

$$