Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

[tron777]

I didn't realize that pre-June storms have become more common these days. But then I remembered that there's been talk of the NHC expanding the season to begin earlier then the usual June 1st date. But I have yet to see any action taken on it yet.

[MVWxObserver]

LOL @ the Fantasy 6Z GFS... it develops a TS in the Gulf and brings it into the FL Panhandle and AL / GA in late May. I guess it is that time of year again!

Here are the names for 2022 for the Atlantic Basin from the NHC:

Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Ian
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Martin
Nicole
Owen
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tobias
Virginie
Walter

Colin may be a brute as in Moran i.e.!

Would be something if this year's C-named storm was Clyde.

[tron777]

Would be something if this year's C-named storm was Clyde.

That would have been awesome!

[cloudy72]

Now both the Euro AND GFS are trying to cook something up in the northern Gulf towards the end of May....

index.png

GFS.png

[tron777]

I believe every GEFS Member has something also. This is a fairly strong signal showing up this far out. It is worth monitoring.... Knowing the luck of the United States, it'll probably come around near Memorial Day weekend to impact the Northern Gulf Coast region, and in particular the Florida Panhandle at this extremely early, early stage in the game.

[tron777]

12Z GFS has a Gulf Hurricane now post 300 hours!

[cloudy72]

Looks like it meanders out there in the 300-384 hr frame

[tron777]

There have been 4 known storms in the last 150 years to have become hurricanes in May. Is the GFS showing a very rare #5 or model BS?

May Canes.jpg

EDIT: Only ONE of those was a Gulf storm too like the GFS depicts so even rarer!

[cloudy72]

GFS still hyping Memorial Day weekend tropical system in the northern Gulf of Mexico

[tron777]

GFS still hyping Memorial Day weekend tropical system in the northern Gulf of Mexico

I'm curious to see if any other model picks up on it once we get closer.

[MVWxObserver]

Invest 90L has formed in the GOM.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/vi ... =hp-slot-2

[tron777]

That invest does not look to develop at this time per NHC.

[cloudy72]

Looks like we may have our first named storm of the Atlantic season soon. NHC gives east pacific hurricane Agatha remnants a 70% chance of re-development in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. It will likely impact areas of south Florida FRI/SAT.

two_atl_5d0.png

[tron777]

Let's see if we can get Alex out of it. Whether or not it is a TD or a named system, heavy rains and isolated tornadoes for FL / SE Coast region is my early guess for main impacts.

[MVWxObserver]

I have a cousin and her fiance who reside in Melbourne, FL and so this will be their 2nd tropical season.

[tron777]

30 / 70 now from the NHC so you guys are probably right. We may have a little something cooking.

[tron777]

We're up to a high chance now guys from the NHC boys... A TD is just a matter of time.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[cloudy72]

We now have Invest 91L. Models are generally keeping this below Tropical Storm status until it ejects into the Atlantic past Florida.

91L_gefs_latest.png

[MVWxObserver]

TS Watch in effect for southern FL.

[tron777]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022

...HEAVY RAINFALL TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA, THE FLORIDA KEYS,
AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH FLOODING
POSSIBLE...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 87.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NNW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the west coast of the
Florida peninsula south of the Middle of Longboat Key and for the
east coast of the Florida peninsula south of the Volusia/Brevard
County line, including Lake Okeechobee.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for all of the Florida Keys,
including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay.

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, and
Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for..
* West coast of Florida south of the Middle of Longboat Key
* East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the northwestern
Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
21.4 North, longitude 87.5 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue
tonight. A turn toward the northeast is expected on Friday, and a
faster motion toward the northeast is expected Friday night and
Saturday. On the forecast track, the system should move across the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico through Friday night, and then move
across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula
on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is expected to become a tropical depression on Friday
and a tropical storm late Friday or Friday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rains over the eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, the
Cayman Islands and western Cuba through Friday. Heavy rains will
begin to affect South Florida and the Keys Friday and continue
through Saturday. The following storm total rainfall amounts are
currently expected:

Eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and the Cayman Islands: 2
to 4 inches, with isolated maximum of 6 inches.

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum of 14 inches.
This rain may cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

South Florida including the Keys: 4 to 8 inches with maximum totals
of 12 inches. This rain may produce considerable flash and urban
flooding especially across the urban corridors.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in Cuba on Friday, and in the watch area in Florida by Friday
night or Saturday morning.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Marco Island, FL to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Marco Island, Florida...1-2 ft
Charlotte Harbor...1-2 ft
Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

[tron777]

As of 4am Central, PTC 1 has winds of 40 mph and should be TS Alex really about anytime. Could produce up to 8" of rain over S FL and Miami as it moves thru.

[tron777]

Finally... TS Alex is born!

Tropical Storm Alex Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022

...ALEX MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO MAKE CLOSEST APPROACH TO BERMUDA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 75.0W
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

[tron777]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alex Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
500 AM AST Mon Jun 06 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AFFECTING BERMUDA AS ALEX CONTINUES
MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.5N 66.7W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM NW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

[tron777]

NHC is watching a disturbance that could become a TD later this week prior to moving ashore over Central America. Not much else to discuss yet, but give it time. This thread is going to get busy in another month or so.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[tron777]

The disturbance now only has a 30% chance so development is not likely with that one as it brings heavy rain to Central America soon.