Absolute Vorticity

Good Morning Les and I agree with you and expect the second half of this month to play out pretty much as you would expect though rainfall totals east of the Rockies a little higher than normal. We are heading into the heart of tropical season and with a busy season this will lead to us staying muggy and warm while the northern plains start to see more cool fronts come through and they begin their fall season.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Aug 18, 2021 7:53 am Good Morning Les and I agree with you and expect the second half of this month to play out pretty much as you would expect though rainfall totals east of the Rockies a little higher than normal. We are heading into the heart of tropical season and with a busy season this will lead to us staying muggy and warm while the northern plains start to see more cool fronts come through and they begin their fall season.

Good morning Tim! I agree. First half of Sept should be more of the same. Curious to see if we turn cooler with more troughiness in the second half. If we do... the thoughts of an early cooler season will be on par. This will be the first test to see how our early thoughts are looking. Would also like to see the tropics deliver more rain as we are heading into our driest time of the year (Sept and Oct). Currently, I don't see us being very very dry esp if the tropics remain active.

As we know the west has been very much above average this summer but usually along the coast itself some of the warmest period is Sept until about mid-Oct as we start to cool down. That is when we see the Santa Anna winds blowing offshore which raises temps near the coast plus any wild fires can grow quicker because of the wind.

BG StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/08/18/goode- ... -blog-818/

12Z NAM showing a few rounds of rain / storms tonight into tomorrow morning esp from the river on south. 12Z HRRR in agreement. Looks like about a quarter of an inch for CVG and heavier for S / SE crew. Not much, if anything north of Cincy.

Sure could use a half inch to an inch up this way. Looks like only between a tenth to a quarter for tonight and tomorrow, better than nothing.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 18, 2021 7:16 am 0.13 of a mile vis at CVG so a tenth and some change of a mile at best. When you get less then 0.25 or a 1/4 mile, it gets tricky driving. Be careful all in some places. Fog looks to be not as dense imby as it once was., I'm probably up to a 1/2 mile vis now.

https://www.whio.com/news/local/1-taken ... 4RYC5MJWM/

Sadly, this morning around 6 o'clock in the fog, a hasty imbecile's reckless maneuvering sent another driver to a trauma unit at Miami Valley Hospital in Dayton via CareFlight Mobile ICU ambulance.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Aug 18, 2021 11:54 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 18, 2021 7:16 am 0.13 of a mile vis at CVG so a tenth and some change of a mile at best. When you get less then 0.25 or a 1/4 mile, it gets tricky driving. Be careful all in some places. Fog looks to be not as dense imby as it once was., I'm probably up to a 1/2 mile vis now.

https://www.whio.com/news/local/1-taken ... 4RYC5MJWM/

Sadly, this morning around 6 o'clock in the fog, a hasty imbecile's reckless maneuvering sent another driver to a trauma unit at Miami Valley Hospital in Dayton via CareFlight Mobile ICU ambulance.

Not shocking at all.... been a lot of bad wrecks around here with the rain as of late also.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Aug 18, 2021 11:44 am Sure could use a half inch to an inch up this way. Looks like only between a tenth to a quarter for tonight and tomorrow, better than nothing.

Same here bro - the dome has been flexing its muscles of late.

Here is the past 30 day precip anomaly. JP and Columbus crew have been doing quite well - the rest of us have struggled, some more than others. Looks like Butler county has actually been drier than me.

Now that we are seeing some sun and warmth today, I've noticed the yard is greening up nicely once again. That's good to see with September coming. I'd assume another month of the sticky and muggy dews then hopefully, we'll start to see less of that. Cannot wait for those lows in the 40s and 50s and highs in the 60s and 70s type of days with some sunshine. To me, That's fall! Probably a month or two away yet though.

So my dome developed a crack big enough for about a 5-10 min downpour. Registered 0.05" so I got my nickel for the day!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 18, 2021 2:43 pm So my dome developed a crack big enough for about a 5-10 min downpour. Registered 0.05" so I got my nickel for the day!

You're kicking some ass now!

Whew, stifling out there today. Forecast still on track from this morning for counties bordering the river tomorrow morning 4am to noonish-+ hold the best chances. Everyone else about a 30 % throughout the day

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Aug 18, 2021 4:02 pm Whew, stifling out there today. Forecast still on track from this morning for counties bordering the river tomorrow morning 4am to noonish-+ hold the best chances. Everyone else about a 30 % throughout the day

The calls looks good to me! Wouldn't be surprised to see the heaviest axis in LOU's forecast area. South of the Metro anyways. Let's see how that looks in the morning.

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For here in Greenville ...

Tonight

A chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then a slight chance of showers after 2am. Patchy fog after 4am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday

A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 9am. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Hey! According to the 5pm climo report, CVG 89'ed today!

I only hit 88. Darn jet took off again!

18z NAM looks a bit more north with the precip later tonight/tomorrow morning.

Mike that 2.8 looks to be near the airport???? I agree with Bgooney it was miserable out there today. I had to double check the temp just to make sure what it was. I think the highest I saw was 84???? Just glad it didn't rain so I got caught up and a little ahead for tomorrow.

Snow in the rockies this weekend

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 18, 2021 5:24 pm 18z NAM looks a bit more north with the precip later tonight/tomorrow morning.

18Z HRRR and GFS was also. Interesting...

Radar already shows gathering moisture over Western KY, SW IN, MO, ARK, TN areas. We'll have to see where the low level jet focuses more of the action later tonight. Radar should get more interesting after about 2 or 3 in the morning and by the time I get up around 6 in the morning, it ought to be raining and quite heavily somewhere between Cincy and LOU is my guess.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Aug 18, 2021 7:14 pm Snow in the rockies this weekend

gfs_asnow_nwus_fh0-132.gif

- Love starting to see this kind of stuff showing up.

August snow just doesn't seem right at all out that way this time of year. Ma Nature in fast forward mode and minus the commercials.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 18, 2021 5:24 pm 18z NAM looks a bit more north with the precip later tonight/tomorrow morning.

We sure need it, Bro!!