May 2021 Weather Discussion

[cloudy72]

Hey Les, I agree that Friday looks like the best shot at storms/precip. Looks like some sort of MCS late Thursday night into early Friday. Then the overnight NAM actually has pretty decent CAPE down your way Friday afternoon so could see some stronger storms.

[tron777]

Hey Mike... the key to Friday is timing as we both know. How much of the rain and cloud shield are left and do we see any heating ahead of the front for a second round Fri afternoon or evening? If the timing is off, the second round will pop to our east so something to watch. The MCS timing has to be right so we don't get shafted out of the deal. Some portion of the coverage area likely will in this set up I'm afraid.

[tron777]

BG's thoughts: https://www.wave3.com/2021/05/25/goode- ... ther-blog/

[tron777]

Hey Mike... the key to Friday is timing as we both know. How much of the rain and cloud shield are left and do we see any heating ahead of the front for a second round Fri afternoon or evening? If the timing is off, the second round will pop to our east so something to watch. The MCS timing has to be right so we don't get shafted out of the deal. Some portion of the coverage area likely will in this set up I'm afraid.

12Z NAM shows bad timing and thus a screw job.

[cloudy72]

12Z NAM shows bad timing and thus a screw job.

Yeah if I were a betting man that would be my wager. LOL

[tron777]

GFS seems a tad too fast with the low /cold front combo heading our way so this could be a possible outcome. Not good honestly since rain is needed after this dry and warm stretch.

[tron777]

NAM and GFS both generate spotty coverage Wed and 0.40" at CVG Fri morning and that's it. A far cry from an inch plus just the other day.

[tron777]

12Z Euro is slower on Fri and has better timing so we get a nice soaking from showers and t-storms Fri afternoon and evening. Euro solution is an outlier at this time.... but is the solution we would like to see for the best rainfall benefits.

[tron777]

87 imby today while CVG topped out at 88. The threat for 89 or 90 is over now until sometime in June so get those contest entries in folks!

[cloudy72]

Very balmy here this morning - only dropped to 69 so far. Actually saw a couple of small thunderstorms on radar in the Wilmington-Washington CH area a couple hours ago. Hoping for some rain today and if not today then Friday. My garden needs rain!!

[cloudy72]

So between now and 1pm Saturday, the overnight model guidance shows a pretty uniform 0.5" to 1" across the region. Obviously if you get under any storm your amounts will be highest. Good luck!

Also for Saturday, all the models now want to keep it in the chilly 50s!!

[tron777]

Good morning folks! We absolutely need the rain and an inch would be great but not holding my breath. Hopefully we can get lucky today, and have a nice soaker on Friday! 69 also here this morning. Muggy as Mike mentioned.

[tron777]

For Sat 5/29, the record cold high at CVG is 54 degrees set back in 1984 so that is going to be a tough one to beat.

[tron777]

StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/05/26/goode- ... ther-blog/

[tron777]

12Z ILN Sounding shows the convective temp as being 83 today so let's see if enough sun is present this morning ahead of the front to get us to that level for a possible midday round of showers / storms. Would love to see this idea pan out.

[cloudy72]

Looks like some decent downpours on radar moving in within the next couple of hours. Don't think we reach the convective temp here - Columbus has best chance of that but the CT may be higher there.

[tron777]

Light rain here with a mod down pour at times. Radar looking good to get the ground primed hopefully for Friday.

[winterstormjoe]

Finally, we can use a little Mother's car wash to wash off the tree pollen, my car is a mess.

[snowbo]

One of those little downpours gave me a quarter of an inch.

[tron777]

0.30" as of 1pm at CVG.

[cloudy72]

0.28" here thus far.

[tron777]

0.41" as of 2pm at CVG. Perfect - this was very much needed.

[tpweather]

0.41" as of 2pm at CVG. Perfect - this was very much needed.

Exactly Les this was wonderful as the rain is able to soak in and not runoff. If we can get another .5 to 1inch later Thursday and Friday that would be perfect as cooler air will help keep the moisture in the ground.

[tron777]

Hey Tim! I would love to see the 12Z Euro be correct. Another 0.75" to come on Friday at CVG.

[Bgoney]

.30" here. More than i was expecting