Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:42 am

Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:41 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:38 am

Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:34 am 12z gfs ensemble mean is just a tad bit north. Wouldn’t amount to much of a change

I start paying less attention to the Ensembles this close in and rely more on the globals. By tomorrow, it'll pretty much be a short term and hi-res thing by then.

I do the same thing Saturday afternoon on that close to an event I rely on Hi res nam and HRRR. Too many time the global deterministic models miss too much

Can't wait to see what the HRRR shows tomorrow. Also, I am waiting on the NAM to NAM us too! You know how that goes. There is always that one NAM run that predicts the end of the word that never comes true.

Right!!! It always juices up 24 hours before an event.

Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:43 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:42 am

Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:41 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:38 am

Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:34 am 12z gfs ensemble mean is just a tad bit north. Wouldn’t amount to much of a change

I start paying less attention to the Ensembles this close in and rely more on the globals. By tomorrow, it'll pretty much be a short term and hi-res thing by then.

Right!!! It always juices up 24 hours before an event.

I do the same thing Saturday afternoon on that close to an event I rely on Hi res nam and HRRR. Too many time the global deterministic models miss too much

Can't wait to see what the HRRR shows tomorrow. Also, I am waiting on the NAM to NAM us too! You know how that goes. There is always that one NAM run that predicts the end of the word that never comes true.

Right!!! It always juices up an event 24 hours in advance.

Whoops, sorry about that! I was trying to fix your post. I knew what you were saying anyway.

Next up is the UKMET. If someone could please post that during the 12pm hour that would be wonderful. Thank you!

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:53 am Next up is the UKMET. If someone could please post that during the 12pm hour that would be wonderful. Thank you!

UKMET is currently, tracking the low through middle TN. If you’re North of Cincinnati, you don’t get anything.

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:57 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:53 am Next up is the UKMET. If someone could please post that during the 12pm hour that would be wonderful. Thank you!

UKMET is currently, tracking the low through middle TN. If you’re North of Cincinnati, you don’t get anything.

It sounds like the UKIE is the most southern outlier then.

We would barely make warning criteria. Butler/Warren/Clinton line would be an advisory. North of that they could drop the watch.

That low track doesn't look bad to me at all. It's a little too skinny with the northern side of the precip shield IMO. I assume dry arctic air is the reason it is looking like that. GFS is too far north, UKIE too far south. The Canadian models are right in between. If the Euro goes the Canadian's route, I'd be feeling pretty good for the Tri-state area in my opinion.

Wow! When you leave to run errands and come back to 5 pages of posts, you know it’s exciting times! Looking forward to tracking the storm with everyone and glad I retired so I can hibernate until spring

kywthrluvr wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 12:05 pm Wow! When you leave to run errands and come back to 5 pages of posts, you know it’s exciting times! Looking forward to tracking the storm with everyone and glad I retired so I can hibernate until spring

Congrats Leslie on your retirement! Now who is going to report Boone co dispatch on here for us?

Lester you might have to bring out that guy soon if things continue to look this good for your area !

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 12:07 pm

kywthrluvr wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 12:05 pm Wow! When you leave to run errands and come back to 5 pages of posts, you know it’s exciting times! Looking forward to tracking the storm with everyone and glad I retired so I can hibernate until spring

Congrats Leslie on your retirement! Now who is going to report Boone co dispatch on here for us?

I still have connections lol!

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 12:13 pm Lester you might have to bring out that guy soon if things continue to look this good for your area !

When I get home Charles, that is going to be a very high possibility.

kywthrluvr wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 12:13 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 12:07 pm

kywthrluvr wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 12:05 pm Wow! When you leave to run errands and come back to 5 pages of posts, you know it’s exciting times! Looking forward to tracking the storm with everyone and glad I retired so I can hibernate until spring

Congrats Leslie on your retirement! Now who is going to report Boone co dispatch on here for us?

I still have connections lol!

Perfect! Good to know!

Euro rolling in.

Exactly the same at hour 41 as the 0z

Euro hour 53 there’s definitely a difference in location with the 1043 high to the north. I’m not sure if it’ll matter though

Cool, keep the play-by-play coming on the Euro!

Slower and stronger with the surface low at hour 62

Tennessee Kentucky state line storm track at 71

Stays south.

It would be all snow for cincy. I’ll post totals shortly

Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 12:32 pm Tennessee Kentucky state line storm track at 71

Perfect!!!

Actually south with the snow shield when compared to 0z euro

Hopefully the southern shift is done with that run.