Absolute Vorticity

Will the Canadian score or is it too far NW? CB is siding with the Canadian for obvious reasons since it brings the most snow to KY. I would feel better if the Ensemble Support from the GEFS and EPS were there like last week, but currently our chances are low unless this changes.

Thank you very much, Les, Tim, and Dave!

My folks and I will be having my birthday lunch at J.T.'s Grill here in Greenville and then a party back at the house.

I got my driver's license renewed for another 4 years yesterday. The BMV employee gave me a choice of a 4 yr extension for $27 something or an 8 yr one for $50 something, so I went for the 4 year.

Tim, yesterday when my Dad and I arrived back in our 'hood from the BMV, out of curiosity we wanted to see what the bocce ball court looked like with the snow pack and the 7 combined inches showed up to the rim in the two ball lanes.

Currently 12 here in G'ville and progged to top out at around 20.

I don’t see enough SE ridging to prevent the cold front from advancing into the southern states. SE ridge as currently modeled is to weak or to far out in the Atlantic to push back on the arctic advancement


CB to the rescue!!

Sounds awesome Eric! Looks like you have a nice day planned to celebrate! Mother Nature will be gifting you with some light snow later today as well. It doesn't get much better! Speaking of snow, that batch of light snow is over S Mich and NW IN moving ESE at this time. So the call of being further north for this one with regards to getting some light accum, is looking good.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2025 8:25 am Sounds awesome Eric! Looks like you have a nice day planned to celebrate! Mother Nature will be gifting you with some light snow later today as well. It doesn't get much better! Speaking of snow, that batch of light snow is over S Mich and NW IN moving ESE at this time. So the call of being further north for this one with regards to getting some light accum, is looking good.

Yes and a nice pretty present from Mother Nature, too!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2025 8:22 am I don’t see enough SE ridging to prevent the cold front from advancing into the southern states. SE ridge as currently modeled is to weak or to far out in the Atlantic to push back on the arctic advancement


CB to the rescue!!

Great post! The CMC has a weak SE ridge which helps with the NW track. GFS tries but it's more over FL instead of the SE corner of the US which is what we need ala the Canadian. Like you said, Come on CB!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2025 8:22 am I don’t see enough SE ridging to prevent the cold front from advancing into the southern states. SE ridge as currently modeled is to weak or to far out in the Atlantic to push back on the arctic advancement


CB to the rescue!!

No doubt the SE ridge has been well to the east this season. Just another piece of the puzzle and sometimes wherever the arctic front decides to call home for several days you do get some really nice overrunning events even without a big storm plus ratios for snow will not be the normal 10-1 and more in the 15-1 or higher the deeper you get into the cold air. Should be fun to watch and see if the mountains east of here can slow down the front. Have not looked at CB's forecast in awhile but like you mentioned he normally takes the model that leads to the best shot of winter weather.

Forgot about today but a few snow showers and it will look like a snow globe in some areas this afternoon but again not expecting any major accumulation but enough where you can get a few slick spots because of the cold ground.

House of Cards wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2025 8:13 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2025 4:34 am Happy Birthday Eric! I hope you have a wonderful day Bro!

Happy birthday Eric!

Happy birthday Eric! Have a memorable day!!

Happy bday wishes to you Eric! Keep warm thoughts!

I've seen this pattern before and although the EURO and the GOOFUS may be on the extreme cold side, all I can see in the upcoming pattern is a lot of static electricity and dry Arctic fronts coming through! I am a little curious on that GOM wave around the 24th or so?

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2025 10:12 am I've seen this pattern before and although the EURO and the GOOFUS may be on the extreme cold side, all I can see in the upcoming pattern is a lot of static electricity and dry Arctic fronts coming through! I am a little curious on that GOM wave around the 24th or so?

Good morning Joe! Yeah... cold, dry, arctic air is perfect for static electricity. I've been zapped a few times since 2025 began! I'm watching Sunday, early next week, around the 24th and 28th too. It's a cold pattern and an active one. We just have to wait a little longer to see how things line up. Models not in good agreement like they have been so our job forecasting is a little more difficult.

Below zero tonight?

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2025 10:27 am Below zero tonight?

We need clear skies and calm winds. There is a chance for sure.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2025 10:19 am

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2025 10:12 am I've seen this pattern before and although the EURO and the GOOFUS may be on the extreme cold side, all I can see in the upcoming pattern is a lot of static electricity and dry Arctic fronts coming through! I am a little curious on that GOM wave around the 24th or so?

Good morning Joe! Yeah... cold, dry, arctic air is perfect for static electricity. I've been zapped a few times since 2025 began! I'm watching Sunday, early next week, around the 24th and 28th too. It's a cold pattern and an active one. We just have to wait a little longer to see how things line up. Models not in good agreement like they have been so our job forecasting is a little more difficult.

Thanks Les, at least we have this pattern compared to the last few January's. I guess I'll be in a long car wash line this Saturday! Lol

12Z GFS is showing a winter storm early next week (like past CMC runs have shown) but it's still way too far SE to impact us. The GFS has been slowly trending north though on each successive run. 12Z CMC has a different solution today. There are multiple waves riding along the baroclinic zone from Sunday thru the first half or so of next week. The models IMO are struggling as to which one to blow up into a storm as well as the track and placement of the boundary. The end result could still be a swing and a miss. But at the same time, we also know the model biases at play so we still should be keeping 1 eye open from Sunday thru the 1st half of next week for potential mischief. With the last couple of systems, we were able to see them coming from afar. Like well in advance. With this set up, IMO, it is the exact opposite. We may not know until 48-72 hours out versus 5-7+ days.

Back to our current clipper... is anyone seeing any flakes flying in our northern counties?

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2025 11:43 am Back to our current clipper... is anyone seeing any flakes flying in our northern counties?

Saw some earlier but they were just the outliers and not the main event.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2025 11:43 am Back to our current clipper... is anyone seeing any flakes flying in our northern counties?

Not seeing anything here

BTW - Happy Birthday Eric!!

snowbo wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2025 11:54 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2025 11:43 am Back to our current clipper... is anyone seeing any flakes flying in our northern counties?

Saw some earlier but they were just the outliers and not the main event.

Thanks Bo! There is a nice band over Eastern IN which should be headed your way here soon. Hopefully Eric and Dave will chime in too being in Greenville and Minster respectively.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2025 11:57 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2025 11:43 am Back to our current clipper... is anyone seeing any flakes flying in our northern counties?

Not seeing anything here

BTW - Happy Birthday Eric!!

I would assume that you'd catch a piece of that band too Mike. Down here in Mason though I am probably too far south to see much.

I’m in South Dayton and starting to see some flakes here. Got a report that it is snowing at home.

Happy birthday, Eric!! I hope it is a great one, my friend!!

GEFs still favoring Appalachia/SE/Mid Atlantic


Happy Birthday young man!!!