Absolute Vorticity

MJO still mostly in 5 and a bit of 6

The Aussies still show it in Phase 5 as of their last update on the 15th.

EU ensemble anomalies

The Ensembles have shifted the +PNA ridge once we get into January even further to the West then the 12Z run I posted yesterday. We should see an increase in Midwest snow storms versus the East Coast or just having a NW flow type of pattern. I just hope that the trough axis isn't too far west then you run the risk of cutters. I think the first half of January pattern holds some promise but it will depend on the PNA ridge axis and the down stream trough axis with regards to storm track. It will take some time also for us to cool back down thanks to the arctic air being bottled over the N Pole at the end of this year / beginning of next year. Until then, Fri is our best chance for flakes for the rest of 2024.

Good Morning and some great posts again this morning. Just got my first cup of coffee so need a little time in looking over everything. My son up in Wisconsin expecting 3-7 inches of snow on Thursday and they have been in a snow drought since last season but the pattern is no doubt shifting for that part of the world in terms of snow and hopefully this will help us later in getting the cold further south in January.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 18, 2024 6:08 am The Ensembles have shifted the +PNA ridge once we get into January even further to the West then the 12Z run I posted yesterday. We should see an increase in Midwest snow storms versus the East Coast or just having a NW flow type of pattern. I just hope that the trough axis isn't too far west then you run the risk of cutters. I think the first half of January pattern holds some promise but it will depend on the PNA ridge axis and the down stream trough axis with regards to storm track. It will take some time also for us to cool back down thanks to the arctic air being bottled over the N Pole at the end of this year / beginning of next year. Until then, Fri is our best chance for flakes for the rest of 2024.

Yep , the ridging will have to stick around for a good while to get a deeper push of cold into the lower 48

As of 6am, 0.21" has fallen at CVG with the latest round of rain. Event total is now up to 1.42"

EDIT: Updated total as of 7am: 1.53"

Looking over a few things and the system giving the snow to the upper mid-west will be here later Friday. Pretty potent little system and the problem much of the energy is north of us and system moving rather fast. Snow showers are likely and a few can produce a quick dusting to maybe 1/2 inch at the most but most of the action will be to the northeast of us. Christmas Eve and Christmas Day were so close to getting a white Christmas as the warmer air pushes over the cold air at the surface. Still believe we may get a touch of snow at first but change over to rain. Heading towards say northeast Ohio there is a much better shot seeing more snow. There will be a High pressure to the east but models are trying to figure out exactly where the strongest part of this high is located and how strong. The stronger this high is and the further west would no doubt help us in getting some snow but at this point I believe a touch of snow Christmas Eve turning to rain and then a cold rain on Christmas itself. Not a big system by any means but something to look at over the next few days. The clipper that kept popping up for Saturday is having a hard time and will watch this but this first system today-Friday may be taking up much of the energy which happens at times and no doubt that system has strengthen over the past few days

Driving in the rain this morning in traffic reminded me I’d much rather drive on snow covered roads. Visibility with the glare is awful

Updated total as of 8am at CVG: 1.68"

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Dec 18, 2024 8:13 am Driving in the rain this morning in traffic reminded me I’d much rather drive on snow covered roads. Visibility with the glare is awful

Agreed.... esp when it's dark and raining. that combo is the worst!

Easterlies still putting up a fight

Updated total as of 12pm at CVG: 1.94"

The clipper like system coming down from the northern plains is quite strong and my son is expecting 5-8 inches is the new forecast. That is why on Friday some of the snow showers could be quite intense and would not be surprised to see at least a covering up to 1/2 inch especially northeast of the local area and also in eastern Kentucky mountains where you get that lift and they could see 1-2 inches imo. Fast moving but potent system and the clipper type storms continue this season. Starting to see the gfs come more towards the Euro towards the New Year and will see if that continues.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 18, 2024 3:25 pm The clipper like system coming down from the northern plains is quite strong and my son is expecting 5-8 inches is the new forecast. That is why on Friday some of the snow showers could be quite intense and would not be surprised to see at least a covering up to 1/2 inch especially northeast of the local area and also in eastern Kentucky mountains where you get that lift and they could see 1-2 inches imo. Fast moving but potent system and the clipper type storms continue this season. Starting to see the gfs come more towards the Euro towards the New Year and will see if that continues.

12Z ticked north for Friday's clipper with 18Z GFS ticking back south again. I like the idea of seeing 0.05 to 0.10" of QPF for CVG Land. You are going to need intense rates to stick since it's been warm and we've had all this rain. We'll see... a 1/2" is not out of the question in an isolated case. Someone in our N or NE forecast area will get up to 1" in my opinion where the deeper moisture is.

EDIT: The clipper is in a weakening state as it enters our hoods. Same trend we have been seeing all season long. Also, that is why the S tracks are verifying too.

If the CMC / RGEM score one, CVG Land would get an inch or so out of the deal. Those two have been the most enthusiastic for days now. Let's see what happens. I like the clipper being stronger than the models progged as it enters the country.

The boys had this to say:

By Thursday night, attention will turn toward a surface low and
shortwave moving ESE through the upper Mississippi Valley
region. Snow will develop ahead of this system, and may begin
moving into the northwestern ILN CWA during the 03Z-06Z time
frame. Some light accumulations (up to a half inch) will be
possible before 12Z Friday morning for Mercer County OH and
nearby areas, with additional snow coming across a wider area
after 12Z -- as discussed in the Long Term section below.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The clipper system will start to weaken as it pivots across the
upper Ohio Valley on Friday as the energy begins to transfer to
off the mid Atlantic Coast. Still though, as the associated
surface low and attendant cold front move through the area
Friday, low level CAA will develop through the day. Pcpn will
likely already be all snow across our northwest Friday morning,
with more of a rain snow mix elsewhere, transitioning over to
mainly all snow from the west through the day. The best chance
for accumulation will be across our northwest where around an
inch of snow will be possible. Elsewhere across the area, any
accumulations should mainly be a half inch or less. Wind gusts
to around 25 mph or so will also be possible during the day on
Friday in the developing CAA. Temperatures will not recover much
through the day, with readings mainly in the low to mid 30s.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 18, 2024 4:57 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 18, 2024 3:25 pm The clipper like system coming down from the northern plains is quite strong and my son is expecting 5-8 inches is the new forecast. That is why on Friday some of the snow showers could be quite intense and would not be surprised to see at least a covering up to 1/2 inch especially northeast of the local area and also in eastern Kentucky mountains where you get that lift and they could see 1-2 inches imo. Fast moving but potent system and the clipper type storms continue this season. Starting to see the gfs come more towards the Euro towards the New Year and will see if that continues.

12Z ticked north for Friday's clipper with 18Z GFS ticking back south again. I like the idea of seeing 0.05 to 0.10" of QPF for CVG Land. You are going to need intense rates to stick since it's been warm and we've had all this rain. We'll see... a 1/2" is not out of the question in an isolated case. Someone in our N or NE forecast area will get up to 1" in my opinion where the deeper moisture is.

EDIT: The clipper is in a weakening state as it enters our hoods. Same trend we have been seeing all season long. Also, that is why the S tracks are verifying too.

Yes Les need that southwest wind involved normally for us to get a clipper that can produce several inches. I hope we start to see that more in January once the pattern switches back.

CVG got to 43, DAY 41 and CMH 40 today.

Good morning! All eyes are on the clipper for tomorrow if you are a snow lover that is. I still think a 1/2" is possible on the grass / car tops etc. But some of you even down here could see up to 1". GFS, CMC, RGEM show a nice band of snow coming thru the Tri-state area and CVG Land.

Then, the forecast really remains unchanged guys. Modeling is pretty solid and in good agreement for the last several days and really into Christmas Time. We warm up and get wet is the theme of the forecast. Same with the Christmas to NY's period. Wow... that 0Z GFS solution was pretty whacky to kick off January wasn't it? Look for more whacky solutions from the Operational models as the next pattern change gets timed out.

NEW This Week in Weather from DT:

Good Morning Les. The kids in Wisconsin have a snow day which very few last winter. Back to our weather and that same system is the one that can bring some light accumulations Friday with some decent snow showers at times. Again piece of energy that is stronger than models showed earlier this week but again fast moving and no blocking but at least festive looking. I thought maybe Christmas Eve we could start out with a little snow before the switch over to rain and less and less likely and really late the 23rd we could have a brief mix that evening but overall the pattern is moving quickly and the warm air is going to win over. We know between Christmas and the New Year very mild and chances of rain increase once again and could be some nice totals for the end of December. When does the pattern switch and Jan 1 has been the target but with the mjo deciding to take a few extra days in phase 4 and 5 it may be more like the 5th-8th before the cold can make it further south. I hope that the systems late in December though bring snow to the plains but such an overwhelming amount of mild air coming across the country even those areas could be rain instead of snow. Fresh snow will build up in southern Canada once again and that is good as this happened in November and this helped in getting cold air into the eastern USA. Do we get into phase 8 next month and signs are there but need to watch this carefully. Would love to see a phase 8 and 1 get caught up like phase 4 and 5 the past month. Still believe January is going to be snowy and cold and no reason to adjust that forecast. Last but not least the PV has finally got strong this winter season and that is a wild card. Does it split or just send a feeder or two down into the lower latitudes. I have no clue at this point. Only item I know is if the PV say in 10 days is still strong and located in northwest Canada and eastern Siberia the milder conditions will continue further into January. This has been the strongest we have seen so that concerns me as well. The spike in La Nina conditions over the past several days will most likely slow and again at the end of the day whether its a weak La Nina or neutral Enso we just need to see how the pattern develops. My guess we stay neutral Enso for much of the winter season. Time for another cup of coffee!!!

Hey Tim... good morning! NWS MSP is bumping up the Twin Cities Metro area to 5-7"! Mod to hvy snow is currently ongoing there with the clipper. Nice to see more snow then expected upstream. Again, the clipper will weaken as it moves thru our area, but the models are showing a nice band of snow that could drop 1/2" to 1" in some spots on the grass.

Concerning the longer term, the Ensembles continue to look good for early January. The overnight GEFS and EPS now have a -EPO / -NAO combo with a weak SE ridge. I like that look t be honest. We'll see what happens! I will have lots of time when I am off work next week to track this stuff.