Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 7:04 am The NAM has action later on tonight into tomorrow morning, then another round tomorrow afternoon with an actual surface low moving thru. The HRRR is more along the lines of Trev's above post showing our next chance tonight into early tomorrow.

I also think we stand a shot this afternoon/evening. Some of the CAMs destabilize really quickly right behind the warm front this afternoon which if that's the case, watch out. Could be some wicked wind gusts with some of the stronger storms. Lots of moving pieces and definitely a nowcast kinda day.

But yes I am not too optimistic about severe tomorrow. I think most of it will be south.

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 7:19 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 7:04 am The NAM has action later on tonight into tomorrow morning, then another round tomorrow afternoon with an actual surface low moving thru. The HRRR is more along the lines of Trev's above post showing our next chance tonight into early tomorrow.

I also think we stand a shot this afternoon/evening. Some of the CAMs destabilize really quickly right behind the warm front this afternoon which if that's the case, watch out. Could be some wicked wind gusts with some of the stronger storms. Lots of moving pieces and definitely a nowcast kinda day.

But yes I am not too optimistic about severe tomorrow. I think most of it will be south.

I just want / need the rain. It's been pretty dry around my hood for the last 3 weeks. You can sure see the difference as a lot of areas are dry throughout Ohio going up I-75. When I was in S. Mich, everything was still very lush and green as they keep getting the rain while we have been baking down here.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 7:23 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 7:19 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 7:04 am The NAM has action later on tonight into tomorrow morning, then another round tomorrow afternoon with an actual surface low moving thru. The HRRR is more along the lines of Trev's above post showing our next chance tonight into early tomorrow.

I also think we stand a shot this afternoon/evening. Some of the CAMs destabilize really quickly right behind the warm front this afternoon which if that's the case, watch out. Could be some wicked wind gusts with some of the stronger storms. Lots of moving pieces and definitely a nowcast kinda day.

But yes I am not too optimistic about severe tomorrow. I think most of it will be south.

I just want / need the rain. It's been pretty dry around my hood for the last 3 weeks. You can sure see the difference as a lot of areas are dry throughout Ohio going up I-75. When I was in S. Mich, everything was still very lush and green as they keep getting the rain while we have been baking down here.

With the ring of fire pattern ramping up, I expect conditions to improve across our region over the next couple to few weeks.

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 7:25 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 7:23 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 7:19 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 7:04 am The NAM has action later on tonight into tomorrow morning, then another round tomorrow afternoon with an actual surface low moving thru. The HRRR is more along the lines of Trev's above post showing our next chance tonight into early tomorrow.

I also think we stand a shot this afternoon/evening. Some of the CAMs destabilize really quickly right behind the warm front this afternoon which if that's the case, watch out. Could be some wicked wind gusts with some of the stronger storms. Lots of moving pieces and definitely a nowcast kinda day.

But yes I am not too optimistic about severe tomorrow. I think most of it will be south.

I just want / need the rain. It's been pretty dry around my hood for the last 3 weeks. You can sure see the difference as a lot of areas are dry throughout Ohio going up I-75. When I was in S. Mich, everything was still very lush and green as they keep getting the rain while we have been baking down here.

With the ring of fire pattern ramping up, I expect conditions to improve across our region over the next couple to few weeks.

I tend to agree as long as the placement of the heat ridge is correct.

Camping at Hoffmaster State Park just south of Muskegon Michigan. Stormy morning with wind gust recorded at 70 mph and over 3 inches of rain. Needless to say, lots of power outages in the area. Thankfully no damage to our equipment.

snowbo wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 9:00 am Camping at Hoffmaster State Park just south of Muskegon Michigan. Stormy morning with wind gust recorded at 70 mph and over 3 inches of rain. Needless to say, lots of power outages in the area. Thankfully no damage to our equipment.

When we used to camp at Sterling State Park in Monroe, MI (Western Basin of Lake Erie), we'd get some wicked storms too! This one time, there were tornado warnings, hail, high winds, etc. and the camp site got flooded very badly. We got like a foot of rain due to training t-storms one night and when we woke up, everything was soaked and there was standing water everywhere! I have some old pics in a drawer somewhere. Picnic tables were floating by and everything! It was a site to behold that's for sure.

No cape to speak of currently in our region. LLJ is only thing that has kept the MCS going to this point . LLJ this time of day is usually when it decreases,

Its hydrant flushing month here in Greenville. This morning here in the south part of the city a water main broke as a result of the hydrant flushing and crews have been working on it. Water pressure is back on here, thankfully, in the retirement community 'hood where my folks and I reside. Now we're under a boil advisory until sometime Thurs morning.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 11:12 am No cape to speak of currently in our region. LLJ is only thing that has kept the MCS going to this point . LLJ this time of day is usually when it decreases,

I was going to make a post pointing out that per radar, in IN, you can see a nice outflow boundary ahead of that line but when I checked CAPE and saw all of the CINH over us, I was like nope, never mind!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 11:12 am No cape to speak of currently in our region. LLJ is only thing that has kept the MCS going to this point . LLJ this time of day is usually when it decreases,

Biggest limiting factor at the moment. It’s a race between the MCS and the warm front to our west. CAMs show us getting to 1000+ in time but I’m not sure. Nowcasting.

Flood potential needs to be watched as well, especially tonight when the LLJ does its thing. Could see some training leading to impressive totals in localized areas. Another thing to watch.

The only good thing to report in my mind is that we look to fall short of 90+ thanks to the clouds from the action to our north. Only 84 as of 12pm at CVG.

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 12:07 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 11:12 am No cape to speak of currently in our region. LLJ is only thing that has kept the MCS going to this point . LLJ this time of day is usually when it decreases,

Biggest limiting factor at the moment. It’s a race between the MCS and the warm front to our west. CAMs show us getting to 1000+ in time but I’m not sure. Nowcasting.

12Z NAM isn't very impressive until tomorrow afternoon while the 12Z HRRR also doesn't look impressive to me until tomorrow morning on when we get some scattered coverage. Models just don't seem to be handling things well in typical fashion.

From the boys as of 10:35am:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

MCS pushing south across northern Indiana and northern Ohio this
morning has shown some signs of weakening over the last couple
of hours along at least its eastern edge. This is due in part
to an outflow boundary pushing out ahead of the convection as
well as the fact that it is moving into a relatively stable
airmass. We do expect this weakening trend to continue over the
next few hours as it progress south into northern portions of
our area.

A lot of uncertainty then remains for how things will progress
as we head through this afternoon and into this evening. Better
instability is forecast to advect eastward into our area through
this afternoon but this will be complicated by the potential
for some debris cloudiness overspreading our area from the north
from the morning MCS. Meanwhile, the remnant outflow boundary
will also be pushing south into our area through the afternoon
hours. This will likely lead to a decent temperature gradient
with highs ranging from the mid 80s north to the low to
possibly mid 90s across our far south.

The 12Z CAMs are fairly sparse with redevelopment later this
afternoon and into this evening. However, there is some
concern that this may be underdone with the remnant boundary
pushing south into the destabilizing airmass. Think the best
chance for redevelopment would be for areas along and west of
I-75/south of I-70 where the potential will exist for some better
instability later this afternoon/evening, as the 12Z NSSL WRF
may be suggesting. If storms do redevelop later this
afternoon/evening, high dcapes in excess of 1000 J/KG would
lead to mainly a damaging wind threat. Locally heavy rainfall
would also be possible given the high PWs.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 12:23 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 12:07 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 11:12 am No cape to speak of currently in our region. LLJ is only thing that has kept the MCS going to this point . LLJ this time of day is usually when it decreases,

Biggest limiting factor at the moment. It’s a race between the MCS and the warm front to our west. CAMs show us getting to 1000+ in time but I’m not sure. Nowcasting.

12Z NAM isn't very impressive until tomorrow afternoon while the 12Z HRRR also doesn't look impressive to me until tomorrow morning on when we get some scattered coverage. Models just don't seem to be handling things well in typical fashion.

Both models aren't handling the ongoing convection which is a sign they are really struggling with this (understandably so). I still believe today through tomorrow morning is our best bet for strong to severe storms, tomorrow I'm not too impressed due to reasons mentioned earlier. Should still get some good rains tomorrow though! And of course what happens today and tonight will affect tomorrow so my thoughts aren't written in stone. Subject to change.

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 12:28 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 12:23 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 12:07 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 11:12 am No cape to speak of currently in our region. LLJ is only thing that has kept the MCS going to this point . LLJ this time of day is usually when it decreases,

Biggest limiting factor at the moment. It’s a race between the MCS and the warm front to our west. CAMs show us getting to 1000+ in time but I’m not sure. Nowcasting.

12Z NAM isn't very impressive until tomorrow afternoon while the 12Z HRRR also doesn't look impressive to me until tomorrow morning on when we get some scattered coverage. Models just don't seem to be handling things well in typical fashion.

Both models aren't handling the ongoing convection which is a sign they are really struggling with this (understandably so). I still believe today through tomorrow morning is our best bet for strong to severe storms, tomorrow I'm not too impressed due to reasons mentioned earlier. Should still get some good rains tomorrow though! And of course what happens today and tonight will affect tomorrow so my thoughts aren't written in stone. Subject to change.

Absolutely Trev... I agree that anything is possible and is subject to change. That's usually how it goes in weather especially when we're dealing with a set up such as this where we are on the edge of the heat trying to build in from the west. That usually puts us in a good spot for these MCS complexes but we always seem to struggle with timing issues. I'm just asking for a nice half inch of rain. Anything less isn't good and anything more would be a nice bonus! Severe wx as I said earlier is also a nice added bonus should it actually occur.

SPC has updated their Day 1 Outlook and they have added us into the slight risk area now. Still not much CAPE and a lot of CINH, but DCAPE values look good as ILN noted in their AFD that I posted.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 12:42 pm SPC has updated their Day 1 Outlook and they have added us into the slight risk area now. Still not much CAPE and a lot of CINH, but DCAPE values look good as ILN noted in their AFD that I posted.

I saw. Just posted an update on my page. I’m maintaining 1/5 for now.

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 1:25 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 12:42 pm SPC has updated their Day 1 Outlook and they have added us into the slight risk area now. Still not much CAPE and a lot of CINH, but DCAPE values look good as ILN noted in their AFD that I posted.

I saw. Just posted an update on my page. I’m maintaining 1/5 for now.

I agree due to lack of CAPE. However, they issued a T-storm watch off to our West which I thought was interesting.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0457.html

Good Afternoon and the one thing is you can feel the humidity moving in quickly. Never been a big fan of severe weather but more thunder and lightning with heavy rain at times. Should be the new pattern for a few weeks with a quick warm up followed by decent chances of showers and thundershowers. Enough to help the short term drought and not sure but hopefully enough to give us a more normal amount of rain we see this time of year.

It's like the little engine that could per radar. Seeing skies getting dark off to the north here in Mason. We'll see if it can hold together.

Seeing some light rain now in Mason.

Black skies and some decent rains now in Mason....

Shows over now... just hope we can cash in at home.