Absolute Vorticity

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
900 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

...RAFAEL BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...26.3N 91.9W
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

Looks like another named storm in the works in the Caribbean

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 7:51 am Looks like another named storm in the works in the Caribbean

Yes Sir! I called for one more named storm then I believe the Atlantic basin should be largely over.

Les you called that one and what a end to the Hurricane season. Still not a believer that its a tropical system once it hits the mainland but it does help over the next 10 days or so to build the southeast ridge and this hopefully will keep that area dry for that time period. The next item is once this system is off the map this should allow colder air to move further south and I believe models are trying to see this though we know if the system gets stronger over the next few days the models will tend to back off on the cold but will return once the models figure out the path.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 8:05 am Les you called that one and what a end to the Hurricane season. Still not a believer that its a tropical system once it hits the mainland but it does help over the next 10 days or so to build the southeast ridge and this hopefully will keep that area dry for that time period. The next item is once this system is off the map this should allow colder air to move further south and I believe models are trying to see this though we know if the system gets stronger over the next few days the models will tend to back off on the cold but will return once the models figure out the path.

I don't see the tropical system impacting the CONUS yet, but I do see one final one developing in the Caribbean. If I lived in FL, I'd have to keep one eye open on it, but otherwise, it might remain a fish storm hopefully for the country's sake.

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The above image is now at a 30% chance in the next 2 or 3 days. A 70% chance in the next 5-7 days for development.

A high chance of development now for the Caribbean wave. We should see a depression soon.

Not looking good for Fl. Hope it goes further into the Yucatán before it turns. If not, a cat one ,two or low end 3 is on the table for Fl

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2024 5:44 am Not looking good for Fl. Hope it goes further into the Yucatán before it turns. If not, a cat one ,two or low end 3 is on the table for Fl

It is does hit FL as a cane, it could break a record for the latest landfalling hurricane to ever hit FL. Hurricane Kate is the latest ever as it hit FL on November 22, 1985.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2024 5:44 am Not looking good for Fl. Hope it goes further into the Yucatán before it turns. If not, a cat one ,two or low end 3 is on the table for Fl

This system has a better shot of hitting the mainland than the last few which were never close. Why is this different and one reason is a high pressure that may be moving across the northern gom and then moving eastward and also weakening. If this high is stronger and a tad further south then heading to the Yucatan is more likely. Sheer and tropical systems are not a fan and though at first very little so that is why it can become a tropical system in the first place but as we move forward say over the weekend we need to watch for more sheer that may get involved.

So I am still on the low end of this system hitting the mainland USA but tropical moisture involved is most likely to head into parts of Florida. At this point I have about a 10-20 p/c chance of it hitting the mainland USA which is much more than the less than 1p/c I saw on the last couple of storms down there. Sort of like winter storms for us and everything must fall in line for this to happen and though we still have some really warm ocean waters south of Cuba its not quite as warm in the GOM though still some pockets but not like it was say a month ago.

PTC 19 advisory. The max intensity forecast keeps it as a strong TS from the NHC at this time.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
400 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 79.0W
ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMES TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS LATER THIS
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 81.7W
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

How deep it got into Central America or the Yucatán was always the key with what its future was for Fl. Thankfully its interaction there should prevent a worse outcome

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2024 5:19 am How deep it got into Central America or the Yucatán was always the key with what its future was for Fl. Thankfully its interaction there should prevent a worse outcome

I agree. Weak TS at best for FL and that probably will lead to a non phased solution as well for the Eastern US.

Now have TS Sara in the western Caribbean.

Sara is moving towards land to the West and will be over land for a few days before re-emerging back into the Gulf. I think a FL impact is likely but only from a weak TS. I know they don't need it but it won't be anything that they cannot handle.

Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
300 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

...SARA MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS...

...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 85.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
600 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

...SARA STILL STATIONARY...
...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 86.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
600 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

...SARA NEARING LANDFALL ALONG THE BELIZE COAST WITH HEAVY RAINS
MOVING INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 87.9W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

Remnants Of Sara Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
300 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

...SARA DISSIPATES...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 91.5W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES