Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Wed Feb 14, 2024 4:21 am**

Temps are too warm for any snow showers to cause issues this morning IMO. 37 IMBY currently.

Posted: **Wed Feb 14, 2024 8:11 am**

Mornings Sat/IR with not much change, plenty of activity in 6/7

IMG_1442.jpeg

Posted: **Wed Feb 14, 2024 8:25 am**

Per the Aussies as of 2/12, still in Phase 7 of the MJO but it was headed towards 8. We'll have to wait and see the next time they update to see if we were able to weakly get into Phase 8 or not.

Posted: **Wed Feb 14, 2024 8:50 am**

This was NOAAs winter outlook released back in October, I think. Looks like a pretty good forecast for temps for the lower 48

IMG_1443.jpeg

Posted: **Wed Feb 14, 2024 11:06 am**

Happy Hearts Day!

Too bad Ma Nature couldn't have given us some valentine love this year but it is what it is.

Posted: **Wed Feb 14, 2024 11:22 am**

00z Euro and GFS ensembles. Continuing to show a more above normal trend. Of course there will likely be a dip or two after this weekend behind fronts that is cooler than modeled, but the writing is on the wall at this point. Models are even trending warmer than I was expecting and I was already the warmest guy on here.

These are modeled temps and should obviously not be taken verbatim, but the trend is there and that’s what is most important.

Posted: **Wed Feb 14, 2024 12:20 pm**

I am seeing the same. Could be a severe wx event to end this month or to begin March if the longer term trends that I am seeing hold.

Posted: **Wed Feb 14, 2024 12:23 pm**

We better get something Friday, or February could be a goose egg

Posted: **Wed Feb 14, 2024 12:41 pm**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 12:23 pm We better get something Friday, or February could be a goose egg

No doubt about it. The chance at a Feb shut out is very real!

Posted: **Wed Feb 14, 2024 6:27 pm**

CVG reached 50, DAY 46 and CMH 45 today.

Posted: **Wed Feb 14, 2024 6:39 pm**

Prayers and thoughts with Kansas City, the state of MO, and our country as you've probably heard that 22 Chiefs fans were injured and including 1 murdered toward the end or at the conclusion of their beloved team's parade and rally.

Three shooters are in custody.

Currently 36 here in G'ville and progged for around the freezing mark Thurs morning.

Posted: **Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:37 am**

Latest ensembles...

Hopefully we score on Friday as that will likely be our last meaningful and impactful accumulation for the remainder of the season.

Posted: **Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:05 am**

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:37 am Latest ensembles...

Hopefully we score on Friday as that will likely be our last meaningful and impactful accumulation for the remainder of the season.

I think we get one more brief cold blast in March then that will probably do it for the season. No idea if the cold blast would yield any snow this far out in time, but I'm honestly not ready to say that Friday will be the last accumulation chance of the season. You could very well be right on this, but I am going by climatology too.

You can get a snow storm in a warm pattern. You just have to have a well timed cold blast. See March of 2008. We got that storm in an otherwise mild and snowless winter. I had 6" on the season until that storm came which saved our winter from being a complete dud. A couple of days later, the snow was gone. Definitely calling it quits on any sustained cold pattern or snow chances until next season. However, I am not calling it quits yet on seeing a well timed cold blast in early March. If that happens or doesn't happen, then I'll throw in the towel. I wait until the bitter end Trev. I have to. I have to wait another 9 months again after this LOL

Posted: **Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:27 am**

I see Minneapolis area finally got a decent snow yesterday as 4-6 inch general snowfall across the area.

Posted: **Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:31 am**

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:27 am I see Minneapolis area finally got a decent snow yesterday as 4-6 inch general snowfall across the area.

Their biggest snow of the season too. Snow lovers in MN have not had their grass covered since October. 6.9" fell at MSP on 0.41" of liquid.

Posted: **Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:32 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:05 am
Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:37 am Latest ensembles...

Hopefully we score on Friday as that will likely be our last meaningful and impactful accumulation for the remainder of the season.
I think we get one more brief cold blast in March then that will probably do it for the season. No idea if the cold blast would yield any snow this far out in time, but I'm honestly not ready to say that Friday will be the last accumulation chance of the season. You could very well be right on this, but I am going by climatology too. You can get a snow storm in a warm pattern. You just have to have a well timed cold blast. See March of 2008. We got that storm in an otherwise mild and snowless winter. I had 6" on the season until that storm came which saved our winter from being a complete dud. A couple of days later, the snow was gone. Definitely calling it quits on any sustained cold pattern or snow chances until next season. However, I am not calling it quits yet on seeing a well timed cold blast in early March. If that happens or doesn't happen, then I'll throw in the towel. I wait until the bitter end Trev. I have to. I have to wait another 9 months again after this LOL

Impactful accumulation. Not counting car toppers or slushy grass accum. That's of course always possible behind a cold front this time of year through March (shoot even later some years).

Posted: **Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:42 am**

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:32 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:05 am
Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:37 am Latest ensembles...

Hopefully we score on Friday as that will likely be our last meaningful and impactful accumulation for the remainder of the season.
I think we get one more brief cold blast in March then that will probably do it for the season. No idea if the cold blast would yield any snow this far out in time, but I'm honestly not ready to say that Friday will be the last accumulation chance of the season. You could very well be right on this, but I am going by climatology too. You can get a snow storm in a warm pattern. You just have to have a well timed cold blast. See March of 2008. We got that storm in an otherwise mild and snowless winter. I had 6" on the season until that storm came which saved our winter from being a complete dud. A couple of days later, the snow was gone. Definitely calling it quits on any sustained cold pattern or snow chances until next season. However, I am not calling it quits yet on seeing a well timed cold blast in early March. If that happens or doesn't happen, then I'll throw in the towel. I wait until the bitter end Trev. I have to. I have to wait another 9 months again after this LOL
Impactful accumulation. Not counting car toppers or slushy grass accum. That's of course always possible behind a cold front this time of year through March (shoot even later some years).

Yeah... it wasn't all that long ago when we broke a few records for snow in April when we get 2.5".

Posted: **Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:42 am**

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:32 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:05 am
Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:37 am Latest ensembles...

Hopefully we score on Friday as that will likely be our last meaningful and impactful accumulation for the remainder of the season.
I think we get one more brief cold blast in March then that will probably do it for the season. No idea if the cold blast would yield any snow this far out in time, but I'm honestly not ready to say that Friday will be the last accumulation chance of the season. You could very well be right on this, but I am going by climatology too. You can get a snow storm in a warm pattern. You just have to have a well timed cold blast. See March of 2008. We got that storm in an otherwise mild and snowless winter. I had 6" on the season until that storm came which saved our winter from being a complete dud. A couple of days later, the snow was gone. Definitely calling it quits on any sustained cold pattern or snow chances until next season. However, I am not calling it quits yet on seeing a well timed cold blast in early March. If that happens or doesn't happen, then I'll throw in the towel. I wait until the bitter end Trev. I have to. I have to wait another 9 months again after this LOL
Impactful accumulation. Not counting car toppers or slushy grass accum. That's of course always possible behind a cold front this time of year through March (shoot even later some years).

Yeah... it wasn't all that long ago when we broke a few records for snow in April when we get 2.5".

Posted: **Thu Feb 15, 2024 12:18 pm**

Not bad for mid-Feb but the wind is very gusty and its a cold wind. How cold do we get tonight and guessing in the upper 20's if the winds slack off.

Posted: **Thu Feb 15, 2024 12:54 pm**

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 12:18 pm Not bad for mid-Feb but the wind is very gusty and its a cold wind. How cold do we get tonight and guessing in the upper 20's if the winds slack off.

Agreed.... and if they don't than 30-31 ought to cover it for CVG.

Posted: **Fri Feb 16, 2024 9:42 am**

CVG got to 59, DAY 52 and CMH 54 yesterday.

Posted: **Fri Feb 16, 2024 11:30 am**

After today how we looking for snow?

Posted: **Fri Feb 16, 2024 11:40 am**

MattD41 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 11:30 am After today how we looking for snow?

Not very good so enjoy the upcoming event!

Posted: **Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:21 pm**

I'm (not) sorry I'll miss the snow. Can you guess where I am?

Posted: **Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:48 pm**

Angelika wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:21 pm I'm (not) sorry I'll miss the snow. Can you guess where I am?

Cool Ang!!! Watch out for those gators!

Have a good time!

Absolute Vorticity

February 2024 Weather Discussion

Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion

Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion

Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion

Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion

Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion

Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion

Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion

Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion

Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion

Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion

Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion

Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion

Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion

Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion

Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion

Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion

Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion

Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion

Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion

Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion

Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion

Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion

Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion

Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion

Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion