Absolute Vorticity

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:21 am I’m expecting the steadier rain to take a bit longer to move out as more develops in southern Kentucky and heads NNW into the tri-state. Should get us to inch plus.

Good call Trev! My drive in was a steady rain. Saw a couple of cars on 75 into the wall.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:14 am Good Morning and a nice soaking overnight.The extended looks good and no changes as we wait for small pieces of energy heading across the country starting this weekend but at the moment nothing major. Once we get into early December we should start looking for a bigger system that brings in the change to milder air. Still no date on that but most times in the winter a pattern change does bring with it a bigger system

Good morning Tim! Hopefully we'll see the snow pack build to our NW in December. Barrow is in the dark now until I believe January 23, 2024 if my memory is working this morning lol

9 tenths of rain so far as of 9:30 am. Good day to bake pumpkin bread since tomorrow should be ok to work outside.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 8:15 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:14 am Good Morning and a nice soaking overnight.The extended looks good and no changes as we wait for small pieces of energy heading across the country starting this weekend but at the moment nothing major. Once we get into early December we should start looking for a bigger system that brings in the change to milder air. Still no date on that but most times in the winter a pattern change does bring with it a bigger system

Good morning Tim! Hopefully we'll see the snow pack build to our NW in December. Barrow is in the dark now until I believe January 23, 2024 if my memory is working this morning lol

Agree , pattern needs a shuffle in December . The rest of November going into December is going to be a challenge for Canadian snow with the current split flow and NWflow over the next 10+ days

I haven't had time to check local rain fall amounts but I do know as of 9am, CVG had 0.70"

As of 11 am. Kday, .34”. ILN .70, Cvg.76”, Here in Indian hill .90” Cbus .77”

young pup wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 9:34 am 9 tenths of rain so far as of 9:30 am. Good day to bake pumpkin bread since tomorrow should be ok to work outside.

Hi JP,

I imagine your pumpkin bread is probably even better than Bob Evans's e.g.

Its weird how servers at that franchise only offer rolls, biscuits or banana nut bread with most dinner entrees.

They have pumpkin bread on sale near the cash register.

Currently 49 here in G'ville and progged for around 53 today.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 11:26 am As of 11 am. Kday, .34”. ILN .70, Cvg.76”, Here in Indian hill .90” Cbus .77”

Thanks! Looks like the 0.50" to 1" call should work for most posters. I think Tim was the one who first made that call if I'm not mistaken. My original half inch call was too low.

Fantasy range severe storm risk and temps approaching 70. Remember my bold prediction for Dec was to hit 75+ so I’ll take it!

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 1:11 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 11:26 am As of 11 am. Kday, .34”. ILN .70, Cvg.76”, Here in Indian hill .90” Cbus .77”

Thanks! Looks like the 0.50" to 1" call should work for most posters. I think Tim was the one who first made that call if I'm not mistaken. My original half inch call was too low.

Good Afternoon Les and locally we did fine but like all systems their are cutoffs to precip and just misses with every system. Never a perfect forecast and with this system I only predicted locally even though my guess folks just north and west of the local area were under the .5. Sometimes I do an area wide forecast because you may see several rounds of precip and tough to pinpoint.

Probably the biggest reason I was close on totals is because the models and I were on the same page and that is not always the case. A few things I am noticing and this could be a trend for the winter and that is the coldest of air will tend to be northeast of us,systems will have a hard time merging together until they are east of us and third I believe a ton of severe weather in Florida. This past storm was really not imo how many systems will play out though once every few weeks we will see the 2 jets come together in the central USA. I hope being wrong on the meeting of the jet streams comes true but so far the trend and the trend for sometime since summer this has been the case. When I did my snowfall forecast and I went big or go home I was expecting one and maybe 2 bigger storms that tend to happen during an El Nino season and I never bought into the strong El Nino as I believe models were sort of fooled by the sudden warming after the La Nina and that sort of threw off the models and again that is only my take on that situation.

Looking again to next week and models are showing part of the PV rotating into southeast Canada. Sure we can get cold with that set up and we should have temps below normal next week but again the trend since summer is eastern Canada and the northeast USA getting the colder weather. Usually and not always but those two areas are usually much later in the season to get these cold spells . Also northern Europe has been really cold but that is a little more in line for them. Why this is happening and not sure and anything to do with the amount of Tropical activity this season in the mid-Atlantic? Northern Canada and Siberia really not a snowy begin of the season but parts of Alaska and eastern Canada above normal. Just many factors and sometimes we understand right away and other times we look back on a season and then figure out what may have caused these events.

Trevor that was a very bold call and hope your wrong lol. I see these warm ups in December,January and first half of February and that usually entails a big storm to bring up that much warmth. Could it happen and yes but I usually temper my call for the 70's getting in western and southern Kentucky but hard to push above the 70 degree here locally. Again I believe that the PV will be reloading in the second and third week of December but will we be just a tad to far east to get the temp above that threshold.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 11:39 am

young pup wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 9:34 am 9 tenths of rain so far as of 9:30 am. Good day to bake pumpkin bread since tomorrow should be ok to work outside.

Hi JP,

I imagine your pumpkin bread is probably even better than Bob Evans's e.g.

Its weird how servers at that franchise only offer rolls, biscuits or banana nut bread with most dinner entrees.

They have pumpkin bread on sale near the cash register.

Currently 49 here in G'ville and progged for around 53 today.

Thanks Eric,
I don't recall having Bob EVans pumpkin bread so I don't want to compare.

I now have 1.10 in the gauge.

Event totals as of 5pm:

CVG - 0.82"
Me - 0.85"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.89"

All three of the major global models look boooorrrriiinnggggg until the fantasy range which Trev posted above. Cool and dry mainly minus that weak little system coming this Sunday. We will probably turn more active once we warm up which is pretty much what the fantasy 12Z GFS showed.

Looks good Trev! I don't see any phasing for Sunday. We're in no man's land with snow to our north and heavier rain to our south. We'll just get whatever scraps that we can.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 7:14 pm Looks good Trev! I don't see any phasing for Sunday. We're in no man's land with snow to our north and heavier rain to our south. We'll just get whatever scraps that we can.

Yeah that’s what I’m thinking man. Some spit and flurries lol

Both CVG and DAY reached 52 and CMH 51 on Tues.

Good morning all! The clouds will be slow to clear out if at all today with temps stuck in the 40s. We may not break out into crystal clear blue skies on Thanksgiving either so we may also stay in the 40s instead of the low 50s if sunshine occurs. Then as Trev put it, some spits and flakes possible on Sunday but otherwise nothing very meaningful coming our way for a while.

06z GFS is a bit “juicier” for Sunday giving our far northern posters an inch.

Good Morning and looks like a rather normal November day in store with plenty of clouds. I agree Les Thanksgiving may stay cloudy much of the day. Models every year in the Ohio Valley during the late fall and winter season move clouds out way to fast. This happens even more so after a decent precip event and where the air behind the front is cool but not to cold. I believe the clouds will hold together for the most part on Thursday and maybe in that 2-4pm range we see some rays of sun peaking through the clouds. Concerning Sunday and I agree this system looks a little stronger than a few days ago and again these are those disturbances that are rather weak and it takes time for the models to pick up on them. Again the jets are not together so a big system is not in the cards. My only concern and its minor most likely is we get a little light rain or drizzle early Sunday and temps could be near the 32 degree mark so a brief period of frz/rain or drizzle may be in the cards but we can look at that once we get closer to the event.

CVG is going to end the month well below normal for precip, not quite the active month (second half)for the Midwest/OV models were advertising in late October

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Nov 22, 2023 7:34 am CVG is going to end the month well below normal for precip, not the active month for the Midwest/OV models were advertising in late October



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This makes perfect sense and reason the jets did not want to play together. Will this be a trend this winter and only time will tell and really the last time we had a decent above normal rainfall was last winter where we started off like gangbusters and slowly ended up drier and drier. I was lucky during the summer compared to many folks but Sept turned out really dry. I am trying to grasp hold of the trends for the winter and so far colder to the northeast is the main one and once the cold comes back in later December will need to see the overall pattern and see exactly where the STJ sets up for the season.