Absolute Vorticity

Current thoughts from the boys for tomorrow;

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On Thursday, a surface low and upper level shortwave will move
across the Great Lakes. As the low moves east, an associated cold
front will be dropping into the Ohio Valley from the northwest.
Ahead the front, PWATs are expected to surge as anomalously high
theta-e air moves in from the southwest. While the overall synoptic
setup is fairly certain, the mesoscale details and potential impacts
related to possible convection remains highly uncertain.

The largest source of uncertainty looks to be related to
morning, or possibly early afternoon, convection or MCS
activity. If convection occurs earlier in the day, the
atmosphere could lose some of its potential energy for the late
afternoon and evening ahead of the front thereby moderating the
severe risk. On the other hand, if skies remain fairly clear and
instability builds all day, late afternoon convection could be
severe since shear increases through the day ahead of the front.
Damaging winds and hail would be the most likely threats
associated with any severe thunderstorms.

In summary, the main message for tomorrow is that the forecast
features loads of mesoscale uncertainty. However, there is a
conditional threat for strong to severe convection across the
Ohio Valley specifically in the late afternoon and early evening.

After the cold front moves through Thursday night, storms chances
come to an end and drier air moves in from the northwest.

we had some pretty serious flooding in my region early Sunday morning when 5-10" of rain fell. not in my hood but wasn't too far away. I would have never expected this summer to turn out the way it has after how cool and dry May and June were.

Still looking at a slight risk for severe storms. 2% TOR and 15% for wind and hail. Prime time IMO for the region will be from 5pm until 11pm. I'd say sometime in that 8-10pm window for Cincy / CVG is my current estimation for the best window to see storms. Then we get a break from the humidity! But it, along with storms will return next week along with 85 to 90 degree temps.

Biggest changes to the new Day 1 Outlook for severe wx was to raise the wind to 30% N of I-70 and hatched risk area for large hail as well N of I-70. For folks S of I-70 no changes were made.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 9:14 am Biggest changes to the new Day 1 Outlook for severe wx was to raise the wind to 30% N of I-70 and hatched risk area for large hail as well N of I-70. For folks S of I-70 no changes were made.

Looking like the same old story for cvgland on timing and storms becoming more isolated and weakening the closer they get to river. Unless the line comes in earlier, that’s what I’m expecting for my hood

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 9:14 am Biggest changes to the new Day 1 Outlook for severe wx was to raise the wind to 30% N of I-70 and hatched risk area for large hail as well N of I-70. For folks S of I-70 no changes were made.

My Dad and I are going to bring some potted flowers which are on stands along with one hanging that's on a hook inside to the garage a bit later on.

Currently 73 with a DP of 70 here in G'ville.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 10:12 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 9:14 am Biggest changes to the new Day 1 Outlook for severe wx was to raise the wind to 30% N of I-70 and hatched risk area for large hail as well N of I-70. For folks S of I-70 no changes were made.

Looking like the same old story for cvgland on timing and storms becoming more isolated and weakening the closer they get to river. Unless the line comes in earlier, that’s what I’m expecting for my hood

Here's to prayerfully the upteenth time will be the charm bro!

Glad the Redlegs wrap up with the Giants at 12:35 today given the forecast.

When I was outside on lunch, you could certainly feel the humidity building today ahead of this next system. Radar shows a t-storm and a few showers now starting to form along the front over North Central IN. We'll see how that activity builds up over the next few hours.

Severe thunderstorm watch here until 11:00.

Short range models haven’t changed much throughout the day. Better coverage of rain and storms for the I70 folks with gradual weakening and becoming more isolated into Cvgland around sunset and thereafter

Glad the Redlegs have found their groove again **knocking on wood** as they won 5-1 and split 2-2 with the Giants.

Currently 86 with a DP of 68 here in G'ville.

----

DCAPE is up to 1300 over Central IN. Very high winds are likely with those cells on radar over that way. Probably some big hail too.

Also seeing isolated cells popping ahead of the main area of convection over Western IN.

Got to 86 in CVG, 88 DAY and 87 CMH.

Good Afternoon and a nice warm and muggy day but there was some wind which helped while on the golf course. Can see the showers and thundershowers on radar out west but so far no line has formed which I though might happen late this afternoon. Still have a chance but the thundershowers may be more scattered. Of nicer areas of rain well north and well south of us and only so much energy to go around. Weekend looks great with the lower humidity and lower temps as well. Will mow Saturday morning and then hope for some more rain because the extended looks like we may get a little toasty next week in that 88-92 range which is just a tad above normal.

I know the media is all over the heat in the southwest USA and only a few degrees shy of hell but for the year both Las Vegas and Phoenix are below normal for temps but we never hear that side of the story.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 5:40 pm Good Afternoon and a nice warm and muggy day but there was some wind which helped while on the golf course. Can see the showers and thundershowers on radar out west but so far no line has formed which I though might happen late this afternoon. Still have a chance but the thundershowers may be more scattered. Of nicer areas of rain well north and well south of us and only so much energy to go around. Weekend looks great with the lower humidity and lower temps as well. Will mow Saturday morning and then hope for some more rain because the extended looks like we may get a little toasty next week in that 88-92 range which is just a tad above normal.

I know the media is all over the heat in the southwest USA and only a few degrees shy of hell but for the year both Las Vegas and Phoenix are below normal for temps but we never hear that side of the story.

Tornado Warning

Tornado Warning
INC003-202215-
/O.NEW.KIWX.TO.W.0020.230720T2146Z-230720T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
546 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

The National Weather Service in Northern Indiana has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southeastern Allen County in northeastern Indiana...

* Until 615 PM EDT.

* At 545 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near New Haven, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Monroeville around 550 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Tillman, Townley, Dixon, and Maples.

&&

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN

$$

PBM

----

One tiny cell moving toward central Darke Co.

Radar still looks pretty pathetic looking for being at 7pm peak heating.

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
North central Shelby County in west central Ohio...
Auglaize County in west central Ohio...
Northeastern Mercer County in west central Ohio...

* Until 745 PM EDT.

* At 654 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles northeast
of Celina, moving southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind
damage to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include...
Celina, Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Fort Shawnee, New Bremen,
Cridersville, Anna, Botkins, New Knoxville, Moulton, Mendon,
Buckland, Uniopolis, Kettlersville, Fryburg, Kossuth, Tama, St.
Johns, Neptune and State Route 116 at State Route 197.

Tornado Warning

Tornado Warning
OHC021-091-159-210030-
/O.NEW.KILN.TO.W.0028.230721T0001Z-230721T0030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
801 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northeastern Champaign County in west central Ohio...
Southeastern Logan County in west central Ohio...
Southwestern Union County in central Ohio...

* Until 830 PM EDT.

* At 801 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over North Lewisburg, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Marysville, North Lewisburg, Milford Center, Woodstock, Unionville
Center, Cable, Mingo, Pottersburg and Kennard.

&&

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
812 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

OHC021-109-149-210030-
/O.CON.KILN.SV.W.0139.000000T0000Z-230721T0030Z/
Shelby OH-Champaign OH-Miami OH-
812 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY...WESTERN CHAMPAIGN AND NORTHEASTERN MIAMI
COUNTIES...

At 811 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near St. Paris,
moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind
damage to trees and power lines.

Locations impacted include...
St. Paris, Fletcher, Thackery, Kiser Lake State Park, Millerstown,
Rosewood, Carysville, Terre Haute and Ballou.

&&

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$