Absolute Vorticity

I picked up 0.05" earlier. Back up to 81 degrees, dew of 70. Nasty outside! I think that Complex gets into IND then dives SE. Western counties might get clipped but I think it is going to be a swing and a miss for most of us.

12Z NAM and GFS get us with that MCS. New 16Z HRRR dissipates it before getting in here.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 29, 2023 1:33 pm So I agree with your assessment on the shear, etc....my concern is that this complex is moving so fast (nearly 70 mph!!) that the models may be trying to shift this too far south too quickly. Right now it seems to be moving pretty much due east. I know this will turn to the southeast in time but will this turn be delayed enough for us to get at least some severe potential? I may be wrong but keeping an eye on it.

Currently that’s a beauty, isn’t it ? It might send some boundaries our way even if it does dive to our west

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jun 29, 2023 1:58 pm

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 29, 2023 1:33 pm So I agree with your assessment on the shear, etc....my concern is that this complex is moving so fast (nearly 70 mph!!) that the models may be trying to shift this too far south too quickly. Right now it seems to be moving pretty much due east. I know this will turn to the southeast in time but will this turn be delayed enough for us to get at least some severe potential? I may be wrong but keeping an eye on it.

Currently that’s a beauty, isn’t it ? It might send some boundaries our way even if it does dive to our west

Oh most definitely! Even if it does not affect us, it will be interesting to see how this places any future complexes tomorrow into the weekend. Should be a very active period.

18Z HRRR still has it dying before getting in here.

From the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Smoke and haze are gradually growing less prevalent as winds
shift to south away from the source region of Canada.

Thunderstorm complex over Illinois generating severe weather is
moving into Indiana and towards Ohio and Kentucky. After
monitoring current model, satellite and radar trends, this MCS
is likely to affect ILN late this afternoon and this evening,
mainly across western counties. Though this system may weaken
and turn southeast toward more unstable air, a line of storms
containing strong wind gusts and heavy downpours could reach our
western fringe between 5pm and 6pm. Further weakening may limit
the strong gusts to the western half of the FA. Keeping chance
pops for the rest of tonight with a lot of uncertainty regarding
placement of any storms that linger. Low temperatures in the mid
and upper 60s are forecast.

Thank you all for the birthday wishes! It’s been a good week. My kids took me to the Precinct for dinner Sunday and last night I celebrated at 859 Taproom in Florence with my sister and some friends. Looking forward to a long weekend and hopefully a little rain ( maybe overnight so we can all still have fun outdoors)!

kywthrluvr wrote: ↑Thu Jun 29, 2023 3:52 pm Thank you all for the birthday wishes! It’s been a good week. My kids took me to the Precinct for dinner Sunday and last night I celebrated at 859 Taproom in Florence with my sister and some friends. Looking forward to a long weekend and hopefully a little rain ( maybe overnight so we can all still have fun outdoors)!

That would be fine with me Leslie! We may get clipped in the next couple of hours if that complex holds together long enough. I'm unsure.

According to how fast that complex is moving, even though it's turning to the south, Cincy sure looks to get clipped by this complex. I bet Cincy ends up being on the eastern most edge of this area of storms.

18Z NAM keeps the core of the heaviest rain SW of the Metro with light rain for the Metro and nothing north and east.

dce wrote: ↑Thu Jun 29, 2023 3:57 pm According to how fast that complex is moving, even though it's turning to the south, Cincy sure looks to get clipped by this complex. I bet Cincy ends up being on the eastern most edge of this area of storms.

I'll be glad to be wrong! I'll take the rain for sure right now just not on Saturday. I suspect it'll weaken some by the time it gets here but the rain part will be nice.

Going to be interesting trying to grill steaks in this LOL Will obv have to wait until it passes.

HRRR and NAM both have most of Friday dry if the data is right anyways.

Severe thunderstorm watch until 9:00

T-storm Watch just issued....


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0420.html

EDIT: JINX

We may see a decent soaking out of this, depending on how quick it weakens. So far it hasn't weakened much, hence the watch issuance. Mike... good call Bro! Got to hand it to you, man!

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR WESTERN FRANKLIN...WESTERN WAYNE...RIPLEY AND FAYETTE COUNTIES...

At 437 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 10 miles north of Rushville to near Greensburg to 8
miles southwest of Vernon, moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines.

Locations impacted include...
Connersville, Batesville, Cambridge City, Versailles, Milan,
Hagerstown, Osgood, Dublin, Oldenburg, Glenwood, Lake Santee,
Franklin, Waterloo, Blooming Grove, Columbia, Sunman, Metamora,
Bunker Hill, Laurel and Milton.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
435 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023

INZ066-074-075-080-KYZ089>091-094-OHZ070-077-292130-
Switzerland IN-Franklin IN-Ohio IN-Dearborn IN-Boone KY-Carroll KY-
Owen KY-Gallatin KY-Hamilton OH-Butler OH-
435 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF OHIO, SOUTHEASTERN
FRANKLIN, DEARBORN, SWITZERLAND, CARROLL, BOONE, NORTHWESTERN OWEN,
GALLATIN, WESTERN HAMILTON AND SOUTHERN BUTLER COUNTIES THROUGH 530
PM EDT...

At 434 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 8 miles southwest of Rushville to 10 miles southwest
of Greensburg to 9 miles south of Brownstown, moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cincinnati, Hamilton, Fairfield, Florence, Forest Park, Erlanger,
Monroe, Trenton, Springdale, Harrison, North College Hill, Wyoming,
Cheviot, Villa Hills, Mount Healthy, Lawrenceburg, Greendale, Ludlow,
Carrollton and Aurora.

This includes the following Interstates...
I-71 in Kentucky between mile markers 39 and 77.
I-74 in Indiana between mile markers 158 and 171.
I-74 in Ohio between mile markers 0 and 19.
I-75 in Kentucky between mile markers 170 and 183.
I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 2 and 6.

Thanks, Les! I am just hoping for some rain here so i don't have to water this evening.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 29, 2023 4:59 pm Thanks, Les! I am just hoping for some rain here so i don't have to water this evening.

I watered last night just in case. You know our domes, we never trust anything!

Severe threat IMO is minimal but some much needed rain on the way!

Seeing winds to 30 here with light rain just beginning. No thunder or lightning yet.

We were getting some pretty intense winds there for a few. Now waiting on the rain.

61 Dew point. Not sure what it was earlier.
looks clearer with wind shifting