Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 8:50 am The MJO should finally be in Phase 4 by now with most models showing it taking a tour into 5, 6, and 7 by the time we get towards the later portion of the month. Will the wave die again or finally make it into the Western Pacific or Phase 8? A late month cool down into early March is still on the table. Until then, I continue to see more warm days then cold. We will also see the continued up's and down's as well. 3-5 warm days then a couple of cold days. Wash, rinse, repeat. Just hope we can thread that needle for the next couple of weeks.

Can't disagree with this at all. Been looking for something positive for mid month for us and don't see anything jumping out atm. Split flow out west with a weak northern branch and stronger southern branch which relates to the wash repeat you describe above. Phase 7 and 8 would be a long way off (couple weeks) if it ever should come about. Right now easterlies are strong near the dateline but are forecast to lessen in about a week or so

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 10:20 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 8:50 am The MJO should finally be in Phase 4 by now with most models showing it taking a tour into 5, 6, and 7 by the time we get towards the later portion of the month. Will the wave die again or finally make it into the Western Pacific or Phase 8? A late month cool down into early March is still on the table. Until then, I continue to see more warm days then cold. We will also see the continued up's and down's as well. 3-5 warm days then a couple of cold days. Wash, rinse, repeat. Just hope we can thread that needle for the next couple of weeks.

Can't disagree with this at all. Been looking for something positive for mid month for us and don't see anything jumping out atm. Split flow out west with a weak northern branch and stronger southern branch which relates to the wash repeat you describe above. Phase 7 and 8 would be a long way off (couple weeks) if it ever should come about. Right now easterlies are strong near the dateline but are forecast to lessen in about a week or so

That is the timing that we need to change things up. As the Easterlies weaken (assuming they do of course) then at that time, can the MJO make a move towards 7 or 8? That is something that we need to keep an eye on and check again come mid month to see where we stand. I'm still trying to find some positives as well but it's like trying to find a needle in a haystack.

Here are days 5-10 anomalies that get us to mid month period. This doesn't mean there aren't a couple cooler days in there but an overall average for the period. GEFs and EU

The upcoming cool shot looks to be in and out and it's only here for Saturday. We will warm right back up with Super Bowl Sunday looking to be a nice day. We'll start in the 20s but quickly warm into the mid to upper 40s. 50s again next week with a couple more rain makers on the way. Maybe after that, by the time we get towards the 18th-20th, we will start to see a better pattern. For snow lovers, Fri night into Sat morning looks to be it for a while I'm afraid.

12Z GFS has the Fri night into Sat system digging a bit more but the problem on this run is that the upper low closes off over S MO so it's a St. Louis event into S. ILL. Then the surface low tracks across S ILL, S IN, and S OH. That is no good for us of course. Then the energy transfer takes place once the low is in Eastern Ohio. By this time, rain showers are changing to light snow showers but we have little QPF to work with. By the time the closed low gets to us, it's opening up as the energy transfer takes place to the EC Low. We needed the surface low to be SE of us not tracking West or NW of us. Rain showers changing to snow showers is the right call for this system but amounts look light so expectations should be kept in check.

PV update, the GFS op is still showing a good chance at a technical SSW in 7-10ISH days. A good chance is all i can give it since it is the op. I wish the Berlin site still had the free EU PV stuff but they no longer
have it

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 11:29 am PV update, the GFS op is still showing a good chance at a technical SSW in 7-10ISH days. A good chance is all i can give it since it is the op. I wish the Berlin site still had the free EU PV stuff but they no longer
have it

I wish we had the EU stuff too. This is the best I can do: https://stratobserve.com/ (This is probably the same site you are using)
In case it isn't, on this site, click on Time Series at the top then Ensemble Diagnostics, It appears that the OP GFS is on its own with this so another I'll believe it when I see it sort of things.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 11:35 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 11:29 am PV update, the GFS op is still showing a good chance at a technical SSW in 7-10ISH days. A good chance is all i can give it since it is the op. I wish the Berlin site still had the free EU PV stuff but they no longer
have it

I wish we had the EU stuff too. This is the best I can do: https://stratobserve.com/ (This is probably the same site you are using)
In case it isn't, on this site, click on Time Series at the top then Ensemble Diagnostics, It appears that the OP GFS is on its own with this so another I'll believe it when I see it sort of things.

Yep, the JMA PV page is pretty good also

12Z CMC is coming in very progressive with the weekend system and it's nothing more then an open wave. No 500 low closing off or anything like that. 12Z GEFS has one member showing a few inches but that's really about it. Most members are flurries / snow showers and not a big deal kind of thing.

This is a great illustration from EU showing the 850 wind anomalies (westerly/easterly) in the Pac with the phase diagram at the bottom. Correlates well in showing the MJO impulse in P 3 (westerlies)into 4 and 5 (maritimes)going forward while the easterlies near the dateline gradually weaken during the next week.

Great post Bgoney! This coincides well with our next warm period too which is this week and next week aside from one cooler day which is this Saturday. So then that takes us to the 18th of Feb which is the next potential cool spell if you believe the GFS.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 11:05 am 12Z GFS has the Fri night into Sat system digging a bit more but the problem on this run is that the upper low closes off over S MO so it's a St. Louis event into S. ILL. Then the surface low tracks across S ILL, S IN, and S OH. That is no good for us of course. Then the energy transfer takes place once the low is in Eastern Ohio. By this time, rain showers are changing to light snow showers but we have little QPF to work with. By the time the closed low gets to us, it's opening up as the energy transfer takes place to the EC Low. We needed the surface low to be SE of us not tracking West or NW of us. Rain showers changing to snow showers is the right call for this system but amounts look light so expectations should be kept in check.

Omg, whatever tweaks they've tried on GFS op , it isn't working, nearly a foot of snow for missou and Ill? How in blue blazes is that going to happen? Wonder if they have tried unplugging it and counting 30 seconds and then plug it back in? Maybe I should send them a text.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 1:36 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 11:05 am 12Z GFS has the Fri night into Sat system digging a bit more but the problem on this run is that the upper low closes off over S MO so it's a St. Louis event into S. ILL. Then the surface low tracks across S ILL, S IN, and S OH. That is no good for us of course. Then the energy transfer takes place once the low is in Eastern Ohio. By this time, rain showers are changing to light snow showers but we have little QPF to work with. By the time the closed low gets to us, it's opening up as the energy transfer takes place to the EC Low. We needed the surface low to be SE of us not tracking West or NW of us. Rain showers changing to snow showers is the right call for this system but amounts look light so expectations should be kept in check.

Omg, whatever tweaks they've tried on GFS op , it isn't working, nearly a foot of snow for missou and Ill? How in blue blazes is that going to happen? Wonder if they have tried unplugging it and counting 30 seconds and then plug it back in? Maybe I should send them a text.

I think we are owed 100" of digital snow ourselves on the season!

What a weak piece of junk being shown on the Euro. Sheesh... this went from having potential to now being like "what system?"

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 11:35 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 11:29 am PV update, the GFS op is still showing a good chance at a technical SSW in 7-10ISH days. A good chance is all i can give it since it is the op. I wish the Berlin site still had the free EU PV stuff but they no longer
have it

I wish we had the EU stuff too. This is the best I can do: https://stratobserve.com/ (This is probably the same site you are using)
In case it isn't, on this site, click on Time Series at the top then Ensemble Diagnostics, It appears that the OP GFS is on its own with this so another I'll believe it when I see it sort of things.

Found this from the EPS on an AG website. Shows a lot of members going for a reversal also .

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 4:02 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 11:35 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 11:29 am PV update, the GFS op is still showing a good chance at a technical SSW in 7-10ISH days. A good chance is all i can give it since it is the op. I wish the Berlin site still had the free EU PV stuff but they no longer
have it

I wish we had the EU stuff too. This is the best I can do: https://stratobserve.com/ (This is probably the same site you are using)
In case it isn't, on this site, click on Time Series at the top then Ensemble Diagnostics, It appears that the OP GFS is on its own with this so another I'll believe it when I see it sort of things.

Found this from the EPS on an AG website. Shows a lot of members going for a reversal also .


image.png.17b638a795111a8abae38a78d2807c39.png

Nice to see the OP GFS get a little support from some of the EPS members. It looks like thru the 17th or 18th, we are going to skew milder then normal so we'll just have to wait and see what happens for late Feb into early Mar. Euro weeklies today look cold for later in Feb after the 20th and into March. Sure they have busted badly this season but it's all I've got.

i may get something on SB sunday with that coastal Low. other then that it will be back to biz as usual this winter. still thinking once we get to the week of the 19th on. will bring more hope for cold and snow.

Just a few showers today folks with the warm frontal passage. Then, tomorrow a few more showers possible with the bulk of the action coming Wed night and Thurs. Heavy rain and winds gusting to 40 mph is likely during this period. Temps in the 50s today and Wed will spike to 60 on Thurs then we drop. A few snow and rain showers possible Fri night into early Sat then cold with highs in the 30s. then we warm up again. 40s and a nice Super Bowl Sunday and the 50s are back again by next Monday. We get active again mid to late next week with two more rain makers / cold fronts which takes us to Feb 18-19th or Pres. Day Weekend. Can a more sustainable wintry pattern develop by then? We shall see.

My answer to your question Les is yes but what we talked about and illustrated yesterday has to happen for a colder back end of Feb. The MJO has to make it to 7/8 phase to rearrange the 500mb pattern aka a -EPO over mainland Alaska , not centered over the Aleutians/Bering

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2023 8:23 am My answer to your question Les is yes but what we talked about and illustrated yesterday has to happen for a colder back end of Feb. The MJO has to make it to 7/8 phase to rearrange the 500mb pattern aka a -EPO

Completely agree, and as we both know, how many times have we been down this road? How many times has it worked out? Per the Aussies, we are definitely in Phase 4 now and it's on the move. All we can do is monitor things as we've been doing.

Still keeping that one eye open look for Fri night into Sat. It is close guys for something to occur but you've got to get a good phase or at least have the 500 MB low close off and track properly for us to see some snow. I think the timing is good (nighttime, early morning) but the system's evolution is what is very complex. We rarely do complex well around here. I've been following it closely though since it's the only threat we have for a while.

If we can get some arctic air later on this month and into March, the Lake Effect machine will no doubt be in full swing due to the lack of ice and above normal water temps as well.

Good Morning and already sitting at 53 degrees this morning. Love the map Bgoney and if only we could get a two week stretch of cold air in here late Feb or early March the lake effect snow would be wonderful especially if you can get the same wind flow for an extended period. Have no ideal if that will happen but one thing we may need to look at in 3-4 weeks. Yes some rain over the next 3 days or so but nothing that will cause any flooding concerns. Bigger story will be the winds especially Thursday. The system for later Friday into early Saturday does not favor much snow in our area. Folks well west of here may get a nice little accumulation but the system is transferring energy once it gets into our area so sure you may see a brief period of light snow but no doubt light at best. Next week looks like this week so mild and wet seems the way to go. I will be in SC so bring out the shorts weather for sure. I am ready for spring but my guess we get into March and the weather will turn cold and wet and you may get that 2-3 days of nicer weather followed by 3-4 ugly days which just drives you crazy waiting for spring.