January 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Oh wow! Check this out...





Currently the EPS has 51 members. Wait until next winter when we can mess around with 101 members. Is having too much info a bad thing?

[tron777]

Euro looking very wet Tues - Thurs of next week. Any drought concerns across the area should really no longer be of concern with this mild and wet pattern we're basically in for a while longer.

Exactly Les and not only wet but you are also starting to see the pattern change show up in the models. Colder and colder in western Canada will continue to show up and storminess to hopefully put more snow down to the north and west of us. I know Brian this morning was talking about early February but I believe we will already be in the pattern change by then. Anytime after the 20th I believe the change is starting to make inroads. Funny and we both were too fast with the pattern change and probably by a week or so but then we need to be careful because the things we saw that would make the pattern change has not shown up much in the past 3-5 days but I believe the latest Euro for sure is showing that and believe the other models will follow that in the next few days. Interested in the mjo the next few days and yes went from phase 7 to the cod but I don't believe its heading for the warmer phases this time and will end up heading back to phase 7-2 over the next several weeks. I know Brian talked about how we may have a similar situation like we saw in December with a very cold shot but brief in nature and he talked about how that may happen again. I know always follow the trends but that was such a wild swing that I don't believe we will see that again this winter.The Polar Vortex was stretched out last time and we were in a good place for several days. I believe this time more of a pure split will happen and then where does that piece of the Polar Vortex head towards. So wherever it decides to take up shop expect several weeks of more winter like weather. Not sure if that takes place here,Europe,Asia or western USA but we just need a little luck on our side

I'm still rolling with some time after the 20th too. Ensembles have really been looking good as of late after the 20th. The last week of January into early Feb has potential in my book. I absolutely agree that we probably won't see severe cold like we saw in December but cold enough for snow and even a period of below avg temps (highs in the 20s and low 30s) is definitely doable.

[tron777]

12Z EPS is virtually like the 0Z run in keeping the accumulating snows in the Apps / Lake Effect belts for the end of the week system. So in other words that OP Euro run is suspect since it's ensemble isn't supportive.

EDIT: The closed low is there but it's over WV and not over us like the OP Euro had.

[tpweather]

12Z EPS is virtually like the 0Z run in keeping the accumulating snows in the Apps / Lake Effect belts for the end of the week system. So in other words that OP Euro run is suspect since it's ensemble isn't supportive.

EDIT: The closed low is there but it's over WV and not over us like the OP Euro had.

Just the placement is different but overall theme the same. No doubt this can lead to some decent snows for the app mountains as you have an upper low plus the lift the mountains give you

[tron777]

Man... I am digging that EPS run from the 20th thru the end of the run. That PNA ridge holds and it's right along the West coast which is the ideal spot for us in terms of the down stream trough.

[tpweather]

Man... I am digging that EPS run from the 20th thru the end of the run. That PNA ridge holds and it's right along the West coast which is the ideal spot for us in terms of the down stream trough.

Les I believe we are starting to see this on models like I mentioned earlier. Getting the ridge over top of us and a trough underneath is perfect for winter storms. Does not mean we get snow but the pattern itself is one that gives you better odds.

[tron777]

Man... I am digging that EPS run from the 20th thru the end of the run. That PNA ridge holds and it's right along the West coast which is the ideal spot for us in terms of the down stream trough.

Les I believe we are starting to see this on models like I mentioned earlier. Getting the ridge over top of us and a trough underneath is perfect for winter storms. Does not mean we get snow but the pattern itself is one that gives you better odds.

Exactly Tim... perfect post! Like in December, odds were good for snow. We didn't get a big snow but it was enough for terrible road conditions for a few days and it gave us a White Christmas! We are still about a 1/2" above avg to date on snowfall at CVG so once the period in question gets here, we'll be below normal by then but not by more then 1-2". With a good pattern, the chances are good to make it up and with some luck, get back to above normal. We just have a week and a half more of pain to get thru while we are waiting. Only thing to watch in the short term is the track of the surface low and the upper low as we've both have mentioned. In this set up, we know who the favored areas are (Apps and Lake Effect belts), but if the OP Euro is on to something and not on something we'll see if we can get a slushy inch or so ourselves.

[tron777]

Yeah it's the ICON mind you which usually isn't a very good model but the 18Z run looked much closer to the Euro. A tad too far East for Cincy and Dayton posters with the back end snow band for Friday but Columbus posters wouldn't mind that one bit. Just looking for trends is all I'm doing.

[Bgoney]

EC due an upgrade this year, increasing ens to 9km resolution (same as high res), extended ens members will be run daily and with 100 members

From the AMS

The next science cycle, 48r1, will be implemented in 2023 on our new HPC system in Bologna. This will see an enhancement of the ENS horizontal resolution to the TCo1279 grid (approximately 9km), the same resolution currently used by the HRES. There will also be an increase of the data assimilation resolution, with a new soft-centred approach to the Ensemble of DA (EDA) used to calculate background error covariances for 4D-Var and to initialise the ENS forecast runs. Other important changes in 48r1 include running the extended range ensembles daily and with 100 members, a new multi-level snowpack model, and use a new object orientated approach to run the 4D-Var atmospheric data assimilation

[tron777]

No changes from the GFS. 18Z run is still fast and progressive for the next system.

[Bgoney]

Beginning of 500mb shuffle and possible filtering of Arctic cold into Canada process too follow

eps_z500a_namer_49.png

eps_T2m_namer_48.png

[tpweather]

Great graphics Bgoney. Looks like models are getting into the timeline where we start seeing the cold on the move. The MJO which went from phase 7 to the COD looks like its heading back to phase 7 and then my guess is 8-1or 2. I never thought it was headed to the warmer phases this time like we saw in December. More good news and though we are still probably 10 days or so away from getting into a better pattern it does look busy as we have several chances for rain and of course changing to light snow which usually gives us very little accumulation.

[tron777]

This is funny... CB's evening update:

https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=57495

Now when you go to read this, what I find funny is that CB only posts the snowiest solutions available for Friday. That would be the 12Z OP Euro which we touched upon, and this morning's 6Z run of the NAV GEM (what used to be the old Navy model or NO GAPS for short. We used to call it "NO CRAPS" back in the day if you all remember that term from way back! His winter forecast has went down in flames so he's trying to keep those ratings and clicks coming! To CB's credit, his bold prediction of a blizzard did come true back in December even though no blizzard warnings were issued. Remember at CVG, we did verify blizzard criteria. Anyway, after I read the blog post, I just had to laugh about it.

The snow weenie in me naturally would love to see those solutions come true, but the weather guy in me says LOW CHANCE. I am sure most of you feel the same way, in the low chance category.

[tpweather]

This is funny... CB's evening update:

https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=57495

Now when you go to read this, what I find funny is that CB only posts the snowiest solutions available for Friday. That would be the 12Z OP Euro which we touched upon, and this morning's 6Z run of the NAV GEM (what used to be the old Navy model or NO GAPS for short. We used to call it "NO CRAPS" back in the day if you all remember that term from way back! His winter forecast has went down in flames so he's trying to keep those ratings and clicks coming! To CB's credit, his bold prediction of a blizzard did come true back in December even though no blizzard warnings were issued. Remember at CVG, we did verify blizzard criteria. Anyway, after I read the blog post, I just had to laugh about it.

The snow weenie in me naturally would love to see those solutions come true, but the weather guy in me says LOW CHANCE. I am sure most of you feel the same way, in the low chance category.

Hey Les and I almost never go to his site because you are correct he will always go to the snowiest model run. I know last year during the winter he had some problems with his site as well so that made it easy not to follow the site.

[tron777]

This is funny... CB's evening update:

https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=57495

Now when you go to read this, what I find funny is that CB only posts the snowiest solutions available for Friday. That would be the 12Z OP Euro which we touched upon, and this morning's 6Z run of the NAV GEM (what used to be the old Navy model or NO GAPS for short. We used to call it "NO CRAPS" back in the day if you all remember that term from way back! His winter forecast has went down in flames so he's trying to keep those ratings and clicks coming! To CB's credit, his bold prediction of a blizzard did come true back in December even though no blizzard warnings were issued. Remember at CVG, we did verify blizzard criteria. Anyway, after I read the blog post, I just had to laugh about it.

The snow weenie in me naturally would love to see those solutions come true, but the weather guy in me says LOW CHANCE. I am sure most of you feel the same way, in the low chance category.

Hey Les and I almost never go to his site because you are correct he will always go to the snowiest model run. I know last year during the winter he had some problems with his site as well so that made it easy not to follow the site.

You know me Tim. I read everything that I can both good and bad. I seriously enjoy what other pro's think. Love that we have folks like BG that give us the scoop without the hype. You get that hype with CB, so you just have to read in between the lines.

[tron777]

One last thing I'd like to mention this evening and that is the GFS, which has the progressive bias and the Euro which can sometimes be too slow since we know it holds energy back a little too long at times. The GFS is progressive as hell for the next system giving us the least snowiest solution. Then you've got the Euro which is the slowest of the bunch giving us the snowiest solution. So if you take a blend, that gives you a CMC / UKMET like solution which would yield snow shower activity for sure with less then an inch accumulation in my opinion. Remember, Kuchera is BS in this set up and the ratios will likely be even lower then your standard 10:1. So for example, if you believe the Euro from this afternoon, you would be thinking, oh... maybe 2-4" from it? No. I'd go with half that amount and say a slushy inch maybe 1.5" at most would be possible should the Euro actually be correct. Going forward, that is the kind of thinking IMO that we should be using for this next event.

[Bgoney]

Overnight mods are still bouncing around the low as it moves through our region but with no real changes no matter where it slides by. A few sprinkles possible wed, then Showers look to move in early Thursday, temps mid to upper 50s an isolated rumble of thunder, a guess of .50-1.0" rain . Backside vigorous snowshowers Friday make for a winter day , at this point an inch or less for most of AVland with the Backside moisture

[tpweather]

Overnight mods are still bouncing around the low as it moves through our region but with no real changes no matter where it slides by. A few sprinkles possible wed, then Showers look to move in early Thursday, temps mid to upper 50s an isolated rumble of thunder, a guess of .50-1.0" rain . Backside vigorous snowshowers Friday make for a winter day , at this point an inch or less for most of AVland with the Backside moisture

Good Morning and this forecast looks wonderful. The warmer ground will of course hurt accumulations on the road but the grassy surfaces should be fine and if you get a heavier snow shower then the roads can get covered for a period of time. I like the inch or less. Heavier amounts of course closer to the lakes and also southeast Ohio and eastern Kentucky where you can get some upsloping with the mountains so a few places can get that 2-4 inch total.

[tron777]

Good morning and I agree with you both. In fact, the Euro has went towards the GFS progressive idea so yesterday's "decent" looking run we saw may have just been a junk run. So with that in mind, the cold air coming in behind won't be as cold if we don't get a stronger system. That will cut down on amounts as well as available moisture on the backside. Glad I did not create a thread for this one!

Weather for the Bengals Sun night game looks fine! Temps primarily in the 40s for tailgating and for the game with dry weather expected.

[Bgoney]

For the long range , overnight EPS still on course with a 500mb change in the PAC , near the start of week 4. Another single digit SOI, favorable MJO phases going forward for a time and a retraction of the raging PACjet. But a huge difference from the Dec Arctic outbreak is the -20 to -40 degrees temps we had in west and SW Canada are not there for the taking into the lower 48. Expect a couple more cutters next week in the meantime

eps_z500a_namer_fh114-348.gif

eps_T2m_namer_fh114-348.gif

[tpweather]

Great post Bgoney. Looking at next week and seeing -20 to -30 for lows but not the -50 or so we saw in December. This time the cold may be directed a little further east in Canada. Still need to watch this over the next week and will southern Canada get any fresh snow before the cold settles in will make a difference with temps as well.

[tron777]

I remember back in the strong Nina winter of 1989-1990 that we had that brutal cold December stretch and a nice snow storm too. Then winter was over come Jan 1, 1990 as the pattern collapsed and never came back. Now before anyone says a word, no. I am not expecting that for 2023. I still like the extended range also as we've discussed. The point here is that when you get a severe shot of cold air like what we had back in Dec, it literally drained all of the arctic air out Canada so it takes time for it to be re-filled. The re-filling process has not occurred thanks to the strong Pacific Jet. The -EPO ridge needs to be pretty strong coming up in the extended range to open up the door from Siberia and fill Canada up again. Then, it will be for the taking over the Lower 48. Hopefully that +PNA is real and in that magic spot of along the West Coast as we've been seeing. So in my mind... as we've been saying... sometime after the 20th things should slowly begin to improve. Slow being the keyword here. Hopefully Feb will be kind to us as it has been the last few winters esp in 2021. Then, how long does the pattern last? The Dec pattern we had did not last long because that low was so strong and intense, it killed the -NAO and the gorgeous blocking pattern we had going for us and that's why the thaw came a week earlier then expected. It's also another reason why a more wintry pattern is taking longer to return. Until that Pacific jet retracts and slows down some, whatcha see is whatcha get unfortunately. Look at the cold shot for Fri and Sat. Just normal temps in the U30s then we shoot right back up into the 50s next week with a couple more cutters as Bgoney mentioned. We'll see how things go moving forward but again, I still have a positive outlook for late Jan and into Feb at this time.

[tpweather]

Great Post Les and you are dead on how the arctic needed to reload and that has happened but much of the coldest air has been on the other side of the planet and over the past week or so we have seen western Siberia and the Baltic states getting the coldest. Next week should be a really mild week with rain of course. The exact date of the turnaround is not known until about 5 days before it happens but we are already seeing signs and more of those will pop up in the next week. Still going with the 20th and models over the next few days will go back and forth but hopefully by the weekend a more unified runs of the models. Usually later in winter the coldest air is not found in the Yukon but central and eastern Canada. So even though the Yukon may only get into that -20 - -30 range I would expect some -40 - -50 further east.

Moscow got below zero for several days but is starting to warm over the next week. The coldest I found was in eastcentral Siberia and saw a -73 so the cold has built up once again. Expect that to continue further east in time before it heads over to this side of the earth.

[Bgoney]

Couple more EPS next 10 days maps, one showing our wet cutter pattern for next 10 days for OH/Tenn. Valley and the other showing where the anomalis moisture is in the Indian Ocean and where the MJO is headed

Screenshot_20230110-090316_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20230110-090547_Chrome.jpg

[tron777]

Thanks Tim for continuing to keep an eye on the temps over the globe. It does help immensely with our long term forecasting on this forum. I really appreciate that as I don't always have the time to look at the big picture which you are so good at doing. I also love Bgoney's big picture updates too that he shares with us like ENSO, MJO and just cool weather anomalies in general that happen around the globe. Sure, a lot of folks only care about the weather in their own backyards but for us weather geeks, stuff that happens outside of our own hoods, can certainly have an effect on the weather that our hoods do see.